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Complexity of Transboundary Water Conflicts

Complexity of Transboundary Water Conflicts

Enamul Choudhury | Shafiqul Islam | Lawrence Susskind

(2018)

Additional Information

Abstract

‘Complexity of Transboundary Water Conflicts’ seeks to understand transboundary water issues as complex systems with contingent conditions and possibilities. To address those conditions and leverage the possibilities it introduces the concept of enabling conditions as a pragmatic way to identify and act on the emergent possibilities to resolve transboundary water issues. 

Based on this theoretical frame, the book applies the ideas and tools from complexity science, contingency and enabling conditions to account for events in the formulation of treaties/agreements between disputing riparian states in river basins across the world (Indus, Jordan, Nile, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Colorado, Danube, Senegal and Zayandehrud). It also includes a section with scholars’ reflections on the relevance and weakness of the theoretical framework.


“It is common to assert that context matters when addressing complex water problems. But, less has been done on discussing why and how it matters. Here, the editors––an engineer and a social scientist––delight the readers by taking a refreshingly new look at why and how. The book helps us appreciate the complexity of transboundary water disputes and improve our understanding of them.”
—Kaveh Madani, Visiting Professor, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, UK


“A comprehensive and thorough treatment of the complex problem of transboundary water diplomacy. Essential reading for anyone wishing to better understand and address the challenges of sharing water across borders.”
—Scott Moore, Director, Penn Global China Program, University of Pennsylvania, USA


“Resolution of disputes regarding management water resources of transboundary river basins between co-riparian countries is a complex process, predominantly controlled by political process prevailing in the region. Useful lessons can be learnt from case studies where such disputes have been effectively resolved. The book contains useful case studies, and situation analyses based on them, that may guide thinking process towards creation of enabling environment.”
—Ainun Nishat, Former Vice Chancellor, BRAC University, Bangladesh


‘Complexity of Transboundary Water Conflicts’ seeks to understand transboundary water governance as complex systems with contingent conditions and possibilities. To address those conditions and leverage the possibilities it introduces the concept of enabling conditions as a pragmatic way to identify and act on the emergent possibilities to resolve transboundary water issues.

Based on this theoretical frame, the book applies ideas and tools from complexity science, contingency and enabling conditions to account for events in the formulation of treaties/agreements between disputing riparian states in river basins across the world (Indus, Jordan, Nile, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Colorado, Danube, Senegal and Zayandehrud). It also includes a section on scholars’ reflections on the relevance and weakness of the theoretical framework.

The book goes beyond the conventional use of the terms ‘complexity’, ‘contingency’ and ‘enabling conditions’ and anchors them in their theoretical foundations. The argument distinguishes itself from the conventional meaning and usage of the terms of necessary and sufficient conditions in causal explanations. The book’s focus is to identify conditions that set the stage to move from the world of seemingly infinite possibilities to actionable reality. Three enabling conditions – active recognition of interdependence, mutual value creation through negotiation and adaptive governance through learning – are identified and explored for their meaning and function in specific transboundary water disputes.


“This book makes a compelling case against the search for a general theory of transboundary water management. Instead, [the authors] show how complexity science and contingent analysis help us to think and act in context-specific terms for actionable outcome.”
—Lawrence Susskind, Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning, MIT, USA


Enamul Choudhury is a professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at Wright State University, USA. His teaching areas include courses in the master of public administration program and political science.

Shafiqul Islam is professor of civil and environmental engineering and professor of water diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, USA. Director of the Water Diplomacy Program, Islam works on availability, access and allocation of water within the context of climate challenges, health and diplomacy.


Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Cover Cover1
Front Matter iii
Half-title i
Title page iii
Copyright information iv
Table of contents v
List of Illustrations vii
Foreword ix
Prologue xi
Chapters 1 to Epilogue xi
Part I The Conceptual Argument of the Book and a Case Illustration 1
Chapter One Complexity and Contingency: Understanding Transboundary Water Issues 3
1. Transboundary Water Management: A Brief Overview 3
2. Complexity in Transboundary Water Problems 7
2.1 Many Faces of Complexity 7
Complexity is neither simple nor complicated 8
Complexity is between order and randomness 8
Complexity is not chaotic 9
2.2 Complexity, Causes and Conditions 10
Causes and conditions 10
3. Complexity, Causality and Emergence 12
4. Complexity, Contingency and Adaptive Learning 16
4.1 A Continuum of Contingency and Necessity 18
4.2 Negotiation and Adaptive Learning: An Approach to Address Complexity through Contingency 19
References 23
Chapter Two The Meaning and Logic of Enablement to Explain Complexity and Contingent Actions 27
1. Introduction 27
2. Conventional Meaning of Causality 28
2.1 Evolution of the Conventional Meaning of Causality 28
2.2 Applicability of the Conventional Meaning of Causality in TWM 30
Structure-based approaches 32
Agent-based approaches 32
2.3 Conventional Meaning of Causality: A Look through the Complexity Lens 33
3. Meanings of Enabling Conditions 36
3.1 Meaning of Enabling Conditions in Different Stages of \nCausal Reasoning 37
Normality approach 37
Informativeness and attributional approach 37
Probabilistic contrast approach 38
3.2 Meaning of Enabling Conditions in Practical Reasoning 39
The motivational form of practical reasoning 40
Pragmatic form of practical reasoning 40
Situational form of practical reasoning 40
Generative form of practical reasoning 41
4. Use of Enabling Conditions to Explain Complexity 42
5. Concluding Remarks 43
References 45
Chapter Three Bridging Complexity and Contingency: Role of Three Enabling Conditions To Resolve... 47
1. Introduction 47
2. Three Enabling Conditions for Negotiated Conflict Resolution 49
2.1 Enabling Condition 50
2.2 Enabling Condition 51
2.3 Enabling Condition 53
3. Conflict Resolution in the Indus and Jordan Basins 55
3.1 An Overview of Conflicts in the Indus and Jordan Basins 55
3.2 Enabling Condition 56
The case of Indus 56
The case of Jordan 57
3.3 Enabling Condition 59
The case of Indus 59
The case of Jordan 60
3.4 Enabling Condition 63
The case of Indus 63
The case of Jordan 64
4. Concluding Remarks 66
References 67
Part II River Basins Around the World: Case Studies 75
Chapter Four The Resolve to Cooperate on Danube: Enabling Conditions for Transboundary Water Cooperation 77
1. Introduction 77
2. The Danube River Basin 78
3. Evolution of Cooperation and Conflict on Danube 78
3.1 Complexity and Contingency of Cooperation on Danube 81
3.2 European Union Water Framework Directive 82
3.3 OECD Water Governance Principles 84
3.4 Key Agreements on Danube River 85
4. Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders 86
5. Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through \nJoint Fact Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits 89
6. Enabling Condition III: Monitoring Agreements through a Joint Authority and Building Its Capacity to Manage Emergent Problems 92
7. Conclusion 94
References 95
Chapter Five Governance of the Brahmaputra Sub-Basin: Exploring the Enabling Conditions 99
1. Introduction 99
2. Attributes and Paradoxes of the Sub-basin 101
2.1 Ecological Attributes 101
Physiography and topography 101
Precipitation and river flows 102
Land use in the Brahmaputra sub-basin 104
Ecosystems–livelihoods linkage 105
Sediment dynamics 106
2.2 Demographic and Cultural Attributes 108
2.3 Political Economy of the Sub-basin: The “Ample Water, Ample Poverty” Paradox of the Brahmaputra Sub-basin 108
3. What Makes Governance of the Brahmaputra Sub-basin \na Complex Problem? 111
3.1 Knowledge Gaps: Lack of Understanding of the Interplay of Attributes 111
3.2 Challenges for Governance 111
Floods 111
Ideas of water transfer from the Brahmaputra sub-basin 113
Hydropower projects in the Brahmaputra sub-basin 114
Climate change: projected impacts 115
3.3 What Makes Brahmaputra Governance a Complex Problem? 116
4. Ineffectiveness of Institutions 116
5. The Working of Enabling Conditions for Developing RBOs 119
5.1 Why the OGLOBS? 119
Objective of the organization 120
Institutional responsibilities 120
Financing of the OGLOBS 121
Composition and organizational structure 121
6. Working of the Enabling Conditions 122
7. Concluding Remarks 123
References 125
Chapter Six The Ganges River Water Sharing Agreement Between Bangladesh and India: In Search... 129
1. The Ganges River and Its Importance 129
2. Ganges Water Sharing and Mutual Interdependencies of Bangladesh and India 131
3. Riparian States Invent Creative Options to Sign \nthe Farakka Agreement 134
4. New Challenges for Water Sharing but No New Mechanisms \nto Address New Issues 139
References 142
Chapter Seven Agreement on Declaration of Principles on the Gerd: Interdependence or Leveling the Nile Basin... 145
1. Introduction 145
2. Phase I of Water Diplomacy: Emergence of Disputes over \nUses of the Nile Waters, and Commencement of Negotiation \nbetween Sudan and Egypt 147
3. The 1929 Britain/Egypt Nile Waters Agreement, and the \n1902 Britain/Ethiopia Boundary Agreement 150
4. The 1959 Egypt/Sudan Nile Waters Agreement 152
5. The 1902, 1929 and 1959 Agreements, and the Reaction \nof the Nile Upstream Riparians 154
6. Phase II of Water Diplomacy: Negotiation between \nEthiopia, Sudan and Egypt 156
6.1 The 1991 and 1993 Nile Waters Agreements 156
7. Phase III of Water Diplomacy: The Nile Basin Initiative \nand the Cooperative Framework Agreement 158
8. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 162
9. Phase IV of Water Diplomacy: Agreement on Declaration \nof Principles on the GERD 166
10. Conclusion: The GERD and the DoP—Interdependence \nor Leveling the Nile Basin Playing Field? 168
References 171
Chapter Eight Reflections on the Colorado River 173
1. Introduction 173
2. Complexity and Contingency in the Colorado Basin 174
3. The Emergence of Enabling Conditions 174
4. Do the Parties Actively Recognize Their Interdependencies? 175
5. How Have the Parties Agreed to Explore Competing and \nOften Conflicting Values and Interests and Invent Creative \nOptions for Mutual Gains? 180
6. Did the Parties Agree to Create Mechanisms to Monitor \nthe Implementation of the Agreement and Adapt It to Address \nNew Issues as They Emerge? 183
7. Summary and Conclusions 184
References 186
Part III Critical Reflection on the Argument of Complexity and Contingency and the Role of Enabling Conditions 189
Chapter Nine Building a Shared Understanding in Water Management 191
1. Searching for a Roadmap 191
2. Examining Enabling Conditions 192
3. Visualizing the Colorado River 192
4. Understanding the Puzzle 193
5. Communicating Interdependencies 194
6. Bridging Technical Gaps 195
7. Fostering a Cohesive Entity 196
8. Enhancing Resilient Implementation 197
9. Boosting Mutual Gains 199
10. Conclusion 199
Chapter Ten Zayandehrud Water Issues: How can a Negotiated Approach be Developed? 201
1. Zayandehrud Basin: An Overview 201
2. The Transboundary Nature of Zayandehrud 202
3. Zayandehrud System: Characteristics and Sources of Complexity 204
3.1 Role of Technology 205
3.2 Role of Conflicting Political Decisions 208
3.3 Role of Regulations 209
4. The Enabling Conditions: A Requisite for Negotiation? 210
4.1 Presence and Recognition of Interdependency among \nContending Stakeholders 211
4.2 Framing Mutual Interests via Joint Fact Finding and Creating \nMutual Benefits 211
4.3 Monitoring Implementation of Agreements and Addressing \nNew Problems as They Emerge 213
5. Concluding Remarks 213
References 214
Chapter Eleven Reflections on Enabling Conditions Through the Lens of Power Asymmetry 217
1. Introduction 217
2. Principles of Transboundary Water Governance 217
3. Enabling Conditions for Transboundary Water Interactions 219
4. Enabling Conditions for Alternative Visions of River \nBasin Arrangements 220
5. Enabling Conditions for Pluralistic Views within the State 222
6. Conclusion 223
References 223
Chapter Twelve Is the Engagement of Third Parties an Enabling Condition of Transboundary Water Cooperation? 225
1. Introduction 225
2. Transboundary Water Interactions in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin 226
3. How Are Third Parties Engaged in Negotiated Water \nConflict Resolution? 227
4. Are the Three Enabling Conditions Present in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin? 229
4.1 Recognition of Interdependencies 229
4.2 Commitment to Positive-Sum Outcomes 230
4.3 Establishment of Flexible and Fair Mechanisms 231
5. Effect of Third Parties on the Enabling Conditions 233
References 236
Chapter Thirteen From Pulp to Paper: How Understanding Laws Enhances Cooperation and Enables Water Security 239
1. The Challenges We Face 239
1.1 There Is Not Enough Water to Quench Our Thirst 239
1.2 Law-Making Authorities at Different Jurisdictional Levels \nMake It More Difficult to Cooperate 240
1.3 National-, County- and Municipal-Level Laws Inform Our \nCross-Jurisdictional Relationships, but We Do Not Know to What Extent 241
1.4 Both the Existence of Law and Its Nonexistence Tell a Story 242
2. The Role of Laws and Institutions within One Jurisdiction 242
3. The Role of Laws and Institutions across Jurisdictions 243
4. Crushing International Cooperation to a Pulp 245
5. Punting in Punjab 248
6. Being “Shellfish” with Water: The ACF Basin 250
Epilogue 253
End Matter 263
Notes on Contributors 259
Index 263