BOOK
Complexity of Transboundary Water Conflicts
Enamul Choudhury | Shafiqul Islam | Lawrence Susskind
(2018)
Additional Information
Book Details
Abstract
‘Complexity of Transboundary Water Conflicts’ seeks to understand transboundary water issues as complex systems with contingent conditions and possibilities. To address those conditions and leverage the possibilities it introduces the concept of enabling conditions as a pragmatic way to identify and act on the emergent possibilities to resolve transboundary water issues.
Based on this theoretical frame, the book applies the ideas and tools from complexity science, contingency and enabling conditions to account for events in the formulation of treaties/agreements between disputing riparian states in river basins across the world (Indus, Jordan, Nile, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Colorado, Danube, Senegal and Zayandehrud). It also includes a section with scholars’ reflections on the relevance and weakness of the theoretical framework.
“It is common to assert that context matters when addressing complex water problems. But, less has been done on discussing why and how it matters. Here, the editors––an engineer and a social scientist––delight the readers by taking a refreshingly new look at why and how. The book helps us appreciate the complexity of transboundary water disputes and improve our understanding of them.”
—Kaveh Madani, Visiting Professor, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, UK
“A comprehensive and thorough treatment of the complex problem of transboundary water diplomacy. Essential reading for anyone wishing to better understand and address the challenges of sharing water across borders.”
—Scott Moore, Director, Penn Global China Program, University of Pennsylvania, USA
“Resolution of disputes regarding management water resources of transboundary river basins between co-riparian countries is a complex process, predominantly controlled by political process prevailing in the region. Useful lessons can be learnt from case studies where such disputes have been effectively resolved. The book contains useful case studies, and situation analyses based on them, that may guide thinking process towards creation of enabling environment.”
—Ainun Nishat, Former Vice Chancellor, BRAC University, Bangladesh
‘Complexity of Transboundary Water Conflicts’ seeks to understand transboundary water governance as complex systems with contingent conditions and possibilities. To address those conditions and leverage the possibilities it introduces the concept of enabling conditions as a pragmatic way to identify and act on the emergent possibilities to resolve transboundary water issues.
Based on this theoretical frame, the book applies ideas and tools from complexity science, contingency and enabling conditions to account for events in the formulation of treaties/agreements between disputing riparian states in river basins across the world (Indus, Jordan, Nile, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Colorado, Danube, Senegal and Zayandehrud). It also includes a section on scholars’ reflections on the relevance and weakness of the theoretical framework.
The book goes beyond the conventional use of the terms ‘complexity’, ‘contingency’ and ‘enabling conditions’ and anchors them in their theoretical foundations. The argument distinguishes itself from the conventional meaning and usage of the terms of necessary and sufficient conditions in causal explanations. The book’s focus is to identify conditions that set the stage to move from the world of seemingly infinite possibilities to actionable reality. Three enabling conditions – active recognition of interdependence, mutual value creation through negotiation and adaptive governance through learning – are identified and explored for their meaning and function in specific transboundary water disputes.
“This book makes a compelling case against the search for a general theory of transboundary water management. Instead, [the authors] show how complexity science and contingent analysis help us to think and act in context-specific terms for actionable outcome.”
—Lawrence Susskind, Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning, MIT, USA
Enamul Choudhury is a professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at Wright State University, USA. His teaching areas include courses in the master of public administration program and political science.
Shafiqul Islam is professor of civil and environmental engineering and professor of water diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, USA. Director of the Water Diplomacy Program, Islam works on availability, access and allocation of water within the context of climate challenges, health and diplomacy.
Table of Contents
Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
---|---|---|---|
Cover | Cover1 | ||
Front Matter | iii | ||
Half-title | i | ||
Title page | iii | ||
Copyright information | iv | ||
Table of contents | v | ||
List of Illustrations | vii | ||
Foreword | ix | ||
Prologue | xi | ||
Chapters 1 to Epilogue | xi | ||
Part I The Conceptual Argument of the Book and a Case Illustration | 1 | ||
Chapter One Complexity and Contingency: Understanding Transboundary Water Issues | 3 | ||
1. Transboundary Water Management: A Brief Overview | 3 | ||
2. Complexity in Transboundary Water Problems | 7 | ||
2.1 Many Faces of Complexity | 7 | ||
Complexity is neither simple nor complicated | 8 | ||
Complexity is between order and randomness | 8 | ||
Complexity is not chaotic | 9 | ||
2.2 Complexity, Causes and Conditions | 10 | ||
Causes and conditions | 10 | ||
3. Complexity, Causality and Emergence | 12 | ||
4. Complexity, Contingency and Adaptive Learning | 16 | ||
4.1 A Continuum of Contingency and Necessity | 18 | ||
4.2 Negotiation and Adaptive Learning: An Approach to Address Complexity through Contingency | 19 | ||
References | 23 | ||
Chapter Two The Meaning and Logic of Enablement to Explain Complexity and Contingent Actions | 27 | ||
1. Introduction | 27 | ||
2. Conventional Meaning of Causality | 28 | ||
2.1 Evolution of the Conventional Meaning of Causality | 28 | ||
2.2 Applicability of the Conventional Meaning of Causality in TWM | 30 | ||
Structure-based approaches | 32 | ||
Agent-based approaches | 32 | ||
2.3 Conventional Meaning of Causality: A Look through the Complexity Lens | 33 | ||
3. Meanings of Enabling Conditions | 36 | ||
3.1 Meaning of Enabling Conditions in Different Stages of \nCausal Reasoning | 37 | ||
Normality approach | 37 | ||
Informativeness and attributional approach | 37 | ||
Probabilistic contrast approach | 38 | ||
3.2 Meaning of Enabling Conditions in Practical Reasoning | 39 | ||
The motivational form of practical reasoning | 40 | ||
Pragmatic form of practical reasoning | 40 | ||
Situational form of practical reasoning | 40 | ||
Generative form of practical reasoning | 41 | ||
4. Use of Enabling Conditions to Explain Complexity | 42 | ||
5. Concluding Remarks | 43 | ||
References | 45 | ||
Chapter Three Bridging Complexity and Contingency: Role of Three Enabling Conditions To Resolve... | 47 | ||
1. Introduction | 47 | ||
2. Three Enabling Conditions for Negotiated Conflict Resolution | 49 | ||
2.1 Enabling Condition | 50 | ||
2.2 Enabling Condition | 51 | ||
2.3 Enabling Condition | 53 | ||
3. Conflict Resolution in the Indus and Jordan Basins | 55 | ||
3.1 An Overview of Conflicts in the Indus and Jordan Basins | 55 | ||
3.2 Enabling Condition | 56 | ||
The case of Indus | 56 | ||
The case of Jordan | 57 | ||
3.3 Enabling Condition | 59 | ||
The case of Indus | 59 | ||
The case of Jordan | 60 | ||
3.4 Enabling Condition | 63 | ||
The case of Indus | 63 | ||
The case of Jordan | 64 | ||
4. Concluding Remarks | 66 | ||
References | 67 | ||
Part II River Basins Around the World: Case Studies | 75 | ||
Chapter Four The Resolve to Cooperate on Danube: Enabling Conditions for Transboundary Water Cooperation | 77 | ||
1. Introduction | 77 | ||
2. The Danube River Basin | 78 | ||
3. Evolution of Cooperation and Conflict on Danube | 78 | ||
3.1 Complexity and Contingency of Cooperation on Danube | 81 | ||
3.2 European Union Water Framework Directive | 82 | ||
3.3 OECD Water Governance Principles | 84 | ||
3.4 Key Agreements on Danube River | 85 | ||
4. Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders | 86 | ||
5. Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through \nJoint Fact Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits | 89 | ||
6. Enabling Condition III: Monitoring Agreements through a Joint Authority and Building Its Capacity to Manage Emergent Problems | 92 | ||
7. Conclusion | 94 | ||
References | 95 | ||
Chapter Five Governance of the Brahmaputra Sub-Basin: Exploring the Enabling Conditions | 99 | ||
1. Introduction | 99 | ||
2. Attributes and Paradoxes of the Sub-basin | 101 | ||
2.1 Ecological Attributes | 101 | ||
Physiography and topography | 101 | ||
Precipitation and river flows | 102 | ||
Land use in the Brahmaputra sub-basin | 104 | ||
Ecosystems–livelihoods linkage | 105 | ||
Sediment dynamics | 106 | ||
2.2 Demographic and Cultural Attributes | 108 | ||
2.3 Political Economy of the Sub-basin: The “Ample Water, Ample Poverty” Paradox of the Brahmaputra Sub-basin | 108 | ||
3. What Makes Governance of the Brahmaputra Sub-basin \na Complex Problem? | 111 | ||
3.1 Knowledge Gaps: Lack of Understanding of the Interplay of Attributes | 111 | ||
3.2 Challenges for Governance | 111 | ||
Floods | 111 | ||
Ideas of water transfer from the Brahmaputra sub-basin | 113 | ||
Hydropower projects in the Brahmaputra sub-basin | 114 | ||
Climate change: projected impacts | 115 | ||
3.3 What Makes Brahmaputra Governance a Complex Problem? | 116 | ||
4. Ineffectiveness of Institutions | 116 | ||
5. The Working of Enabling Conditions for Developing RBOs | 119 | ||
5.1 Why the OGLOBS? | 119 | ||
Objective of the organization | 120 | ||
Institutional responsibilities | 120 | ||
Financing of the OGLOBS | 121 | ||
Composition and organizational structure | 121 | ||
6. Working of the Enabling Conditions | 122 | ||
7. Concluding Remarks | 123 | ||
References | 125 | ||
Chapter Six The Ganges River Water Sharing Agreement Between Bangladesh and India: In Search... | 129 | ||
1. The Ganges River and Its Importance | 129 | ||
2. Ganges Water Sharing and Mutual Interdependencies of Bangladesh and India | 131 | ||
3. Riparian States Invent Creative Options to Sign \nthe Farakka Agreement | 134 | ||
4. New Challenges for Water Sharing but No New Mechanisms \nto Address New Issues | 139 | ||
References | 142 | ||
Chapter Seven Agreement on Declaration of Principles on the Gerd: Interdependence or Leveling the Nile Basin... | 145 | ||
1. Introduction | 145 | ||
2. Phase I of Water Diplomacy: Emergence of Disputes over \nUses of the Nile Waters, and Commencement of Negotiation \nbetween Sudan and Egypt | 147 | ||
3. The 1929 Britain/Egypt Nile Waters Agreement, and the \n1902 Britain/Ethiopia Boundary Agreement | 150 | ||
4. The 1959 Egypt/Sudan Nile Waters Agreement | 152 | ||
5. The 1902, 1929 and 1959 Agreements, and the Reaction \nof the Nile Upstream Riparians | 154 | ||
6. Phase II of Water Diplomacy: Negotiation between \nEthiopia, Sudan and Egypt | 156 | ||
6.1 The 1991 and 1993 Nile Waters Agreements | 156 | ||
7. Phase III of Water Diplomacy: The Nile Basin Initiative \nand the Cooperative Framework Agreement | 158 | ||
8. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam | 162 | ||
9. Phase IV of Water Diplomacy: Agreement on Declaration \nof Principles on the GERD | 166 | ||
10. Conclusion: The GERD and the DoP—Interdependence \nor Leveling the Nile Basin Playing Field? | 168 | ||
References | 171 | ||
Chapter Eight Reflections on the Colorado River | 173 | ||
1. Introduction | 173 | ||
2. Complexity and Contingency in the Colorado Basin | 174 | ||
3. The Emergence of Enabling Conditions | 174 | ||
4. Do the Parties Actively Recognize Their Interdependencies? | 175 | ||
5. How Have the Parties Agreed to Explore Competing and \nOften Conflicting Values and Interests and Invent Creative \nOptions for Mutual Gains? | 180 | ||
6. Did the Parties Agree to Create Mechanisms to Monitor \nthe Implementation of the Agreement and Adapt It to Address \nNew Issues as They Emerge? | 183 | ||
7. Summary and Conclusions | 184 | ||
References | 186 | ||
Part III Critical Reflection on the Argument of Complexity and Contingency and the Role of Enabling Conditions | 189 | ||
Chapter Nine Building a Shared Understanding in Water Management | 191 | ||
1. Searching for a Roadmap | 191 | ||
2. Examining Enabling Conditions | 192 | ||
3. Visualizing the Colorado River | 192 | ||
4. Understanding the Puzzle | 193 | ||
5. Communicating Interdependencies | 194 | ||
6. Bridging Technical Gaps | 195 | ||
7. Fostering a Cohesive Entity | 196 | ||
8. Enhancing Resilient Implementation | 197 | ||
9. Boosting Mutual Gains | 199 | ||
10. Conclusion | 199 | ||
Chapter Ten Zayandehrud Water Issues: How can a Negotiated Approach be Developed? | 201 | ||
1. Zayandehrud Basin: An Overview | 201 | ||
2. The Transboundary Nature of Zayandehrud | 202 | ||
3. Zayandehrud System: Characteristics and Sources of Complexity | 204 | ||
3.1 Role of Technology | 205 | ||
3.2 Role of Conflicting Political Decisions | 208 | ||
3.3 Role of Regulations | 209 | ||
4. The Enabling Conditions: A Requisite for Negotiation? | 210 | ||
4.1 Presence and Recognition of Interdependency among \nContending Stakeholders | 211 | ||
4.2 Framing Mutual Interests via Joint Fact Finding and Creating \nMutual Benefits | 211 | ||
4.3 Monitoring Implementation of Agreements and Addressing \nNew Problems as They Emerge | 213 | ||
5. Concluding Remarks | 213 | ||
References | 214 | ||
Chapter Eleven Reflections on Enabling Conditions Through the Lens of Power Asymmetry | 217 | ||
1. Introduction | 217 | ||
2. Principles of Transboundary Water Governance | 217 | ||
3. Enabling Conditions for Transboundary Water Interactions | 219 | ||
4. Enabling Conditions for Alternative Visions of River \nBasin Arrangements | 220 | ||
5. Enabling Conditions for Pluralistic Views within the State | 222 | ||
6. Conclusion | 223 | ||
References | 223 | ||
Chapter Twelve Is the Engagement of Third Parties an Enabling Condition of Transboundary Water Cooperation? | 225 | ||
1. Introduction | 225 | ||
2. Transboundary Water Interactions in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin | 226 | ||
3. How Are Third Parties Engaged in Negotiated Water \nConflict Resolution? | 227 | ||
4. Are the Three Enabling Conditions Present in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin? | 229 | ||
4.1 Recognition of Interdependencies | 229 | ||
4.2 Commitment to Positive-Sum Outcomes | 230 | ||
4.3 Establishment of Flexible and Fair Mechanisms | 231 | ||
5. Effect of Third Parties on the Enabling Conditions | 233 | ||
References | 236 | ||
Chapter Thirteen From Pulp to Paper: How Understanding Laws Enhances Cooperation and Enables Water Security | 239 | ||
1. The Challenges We Face | 239 | ||
1.1 There Is Not Enough Water to Quench Our Thirst | 239 | ||
1.2 Law-Making Authorities at Different Jurisdictional Levels \nMake It More Difficult to Cooperate | 240 | ||
1.3 National-, County- and Municipal-Level Laws Inform Our \nCross-Jurisdictional Relationships, but We Do Not Know to What Extent | 241 | ||
1.4 Both the Existence of Law and Its Nonexistence Tell a Story | 242 | ||
2. The Role of Laws and Institutions within One Jurisdiction | 242 | ||
3. The Role of Laws and Institutions across Jurisdictions | 243 | ||
4. Crushing International Cooperation to a Pulp | 245 | ||
5. Punting in Punjab | 248 | ||
6. Being “Shellfish” with Water: The ACF Basin | 250 | ||
Epilogue | 253 | ||
End Matter | 263 | ||
Notes on Contributors | 259 | ||
Index | 263 |