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South Sudan's Civil War

South Sudan's Civil War

John Young

(2019)

Abstract

A mere two years after achieving independence, South Sudan in 2013 descended into violent civil war, refuting US government claims that the country’s succession was a major foreign policy success and would end endemic conflict. Worse was to follow when the international community declared famine in 2017. In the first book-length study of the South Sudan civil war, John Young draws on his close but critical relationship with the rebel SPLM-IO leadership to reveal the true dynamics of the conflict, and exposes how the South Sudanese state was in crisis long before the outbreak of war.

With insider knowledge of the histories and motivations of the rebellion’s chief protagonists, Young argues considerable responsibility for the present state of South Sudan must be laid at the door of the US-led peace process. Linking the role of the international community with the country’s opposition politics, South Sudan’s Civil War is an essential guide to the causes and consequences of the violence that has engulfed one of Africa’s most troubled nations.


John Young has worked as a private consultant on the Horn of Africa since 1986. In this capacity he served as a political adviser to the Carter Center during South Sudan’s independence referendum, and as a consultant for USAID during the subsequent civil war. His previous books include Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia (2008) and The Fate of Sudan: Origins and Consequences of a Flawed Peace Process (Zed 2012).


‘The most definitive account yet of America’s debacle in South Sudan and the South Sudanese civil war. Young prophetically warned of South Sudan’s fate in his last book. This time, everyone should listen. No outsider has a closer or more clear-eyed view of South Sudan’s rebel movement.’
Alan Boswell, journalist

‘Combining insights from recent history with rigorous research, Young’s timely study shows how outside attempts to create peace wrought endless havoc for the people of South Sudan. A must read for all those looking to put things right.’
Atta El-Battahani, University of Khartoum

‘John Young describes the appalling events in South Sudan since 2013 with clarity and insight. He has a written a book that anyone wanting to know about South Sudan now will need to read.’
Tim Allen, London School of Economics

‘Young tells a sad story about Sudan and South Sudan, about human nature and American meddling, based on countless conversations with the key actors. It might disillusion many readers, but it rings true.’
Günther Schlee, Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Front Cover Front Cover
Half Title i
About The Author ii
Title Page iii
Copyright iv
Contents v
Map vi
List of Abbreviations vii
Acknowledgements ix
Preface x
Organization of the Book xiii
1: The Deep Roots and Twisted Path to Civil War 1
Introduction 1
Beginnings to the First Civil War 1
First Civil War 3
Second Civil War 4
Southern Secession or Democratic Transformation 9
The Manufacture of Southern Unity 12
Transitional Period 14
Regional Revolts 15
Civilian Disarmament: Another Step on the Road to Civil War 17
SPLA Fighting Itself 19
SPLM Power Struggles 22
Countdown to War 24
Conclusion 32
2: The Misadventures of an American Midwife 36
Introduction 36
US Relations with Sudan: Rise of the National Islamic Front 38
Expulsion of Osama bin Laden and Bombing Khartoum 42
SPLA and US Regime Change 44
The ‘Council’ and the SPLA: The Role of US Lobbyists 47
President Bush and the Evangelical Christians 51
Obama, Sudan, and South Sudan 56
Conclusion 60
3: The Descent into Civil War 64
Introduction 64
Civil War 65
The White Army Insurgency 75
Conclusion 84
4: The Establishment of the SPLM-IO 86
Introduction 86
Riek Machar Takes Control of the Insurgency 87
Rise of the SPLM-IO Political Leadership 93
Democratic Governance and Autocratic Rule 99
Pagak I Conference 101
Pagak II 106
Riek Dismisses His Leading Critics 108
Conclusion 112
5: Laying the Groundwork for Future Failures 115
Introduction 115
Organizing the IGAD Peace Process 116
IGAD and Its Contradictions 118
IGAD Peace Talks 124
Arusha Talks 128
Back to IGAD 131
Conclusion 140
6: The Collapse of the Peace Agreement 142
Introduction 142
South Sudan Government Creates 28 States 143
SPLM-IO and International Community Respond to the 28-State System 147
Peace Process Stumbles 150
Government Flouts Security Arrangements 151
Equatorians Join the War 155
Conflicting Visions on the Eve of the Collapse of the Peace Agreement 159
Collapse of the Peace Agreement 160
Conclusion 165
7: Coming Out of the Shadows 167
Introduction 167
Taban Deng: Saving the Government and Rescuing the Peace Process? 168
Marginalizing Riek 171
Regional Protection Force: Another Failed International Initiative 177
SPLM-IO: Post 8 July 2016 178
SPLM-IO and the Broader Opposition 184
Conclusion 185
8: Conclusion: Collapse of an Illusion 187
Postscript 205
Notes 214
References 228
Index 236