Additional Information
Book Details
Abstract
For undergraduate and graduate level courses that combines introductory statistics with data analysis or decision modeling.
A pragmatic approach to statistics, data analysis and decision modeling.
Statistics, Data Analysis & Decision Modeling focuses on the practical understanding of its topics, allowing readers to develop conceptual insight on fundamental techniques and theories. Evans’ dedication to present material in a simple and straightforward fashion is ideal for student comprehension.
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover | Cover | ||
| Contents | 9 | ||
| Preface | 21 | ||
| Part I: STATISTICS AND DATA ANALYSIS | 25 | ||
| Chapter 1 DATA AND BUSINESS DECISIONS | 27 | ||
| Introduction | 28 | ||
| Data in the Business Environment | 28 | ||
| Sources and Types of Data | 30 | ||
| Metrics and Data Classification | 31 | ||
| Statistical Thinking | 35 | ||
| Populations and Samples | 36 | ||
| Using Microsoft Excel | 37 | ||
| Basic Excel Skills | 38 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 1.1 | 38 | ||
| Copying Formulas and Cell References | 38 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 1.2 | 39 | ||
| Functions | 40 | ||
| Skill‐Builder Exercise 1.3 | 42 | ||
| Other Useful Excel Tips | 42 | ||
| Excel Add-Ins | 43 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 1.4 | 44 | ||
| Displaying Data with Excel Charts | 45 | ||
| Column and Bar Charts | 45 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 1.5 | 46 | ||
| Line Charts | 47 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 1.6 | 47 | ||
| Pie Charts | 47 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 1.7 | 47 | ||
| Area Charts | 48 | ||
| Scatter Diagrams | 48 | ||
| Skill‐Builder Exercise 1.8 | 48 | ||
| Miscellaneous Excel Charts | 49 | ||
| Ethics and Data Presentation | 49 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 1.9 | 50 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 51 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 51 | ||
| Case: A Data Collection and Analysis Project | 52 | ||
| Chapter 2 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND DATA ANALYSIS | 55 | ||
| Introduction | 56 | ||
| Descriptive Statistics | 56 | ||
| Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Data Profiles | 57 | ||
| Categorical Data | 58 | ||
| Numerical Data | 58 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.1 | 62 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.2 | 62 | ||
| Data Profiles | 62 | ||
| Descriptive Statistics for Numerical Data | 63 | ||
| Measures of Location | 63 | ||
| Measures of Dispersion | 64 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.3 | 66 | ||
| Measures of Shape | 67 | ||
| Excel Descriptive Statistics Tool | 68 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.4 | 68 | ||
| Measures of Association | 69 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.5 | 71 | ||
| Descriptive Statistics for Categorical Data | 71 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.6 | 72 | ||
| Visual Display of Statistical Measures | 73 | ||
| Box Plots | 73 | ||
| Dot‐Scale Diagrams | 73 | ||
| Skill‐Builder Exercise 2.7 | 73 | ||
| Outliers | 74 | ||
| Data Analysis Using PivotTables | 74 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.8 | 77 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.9 | 77 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 78 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 78 | ||
| Case: The Malcolm Baldrige Award | 81 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.10 | 83 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 2.11 | 84 | ||
| Chapter 3 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND DISTRIBUTIONS | 89 | ||
| Introduction | 90 | ||
| Basic Concepts of Probability | 90 | ||
| Basic Probability Rules and Formulas | 91 | ||
| Conditional Probability | 92 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 3.1 | 94 | ||
| Random Variables and Probability Distributions | 94 | ||
| Discrete Probability Distributions | 97 | ||
| Expected Value and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable | 98 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 3.2 | 99 | ||
| Bernoulli Distribution | 99 | ||
| Binomial Distribution | 99 | ||
| Poisson Distribution | 100 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 3.3 | 102 | ||
| Continuous Probability Distributions | 102 | ||
| Uniform Distribution | 104 | ||
| Normal Distribution | 105 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 3.4 | 108 | ||
| Triangular Distribution | 108 | ||
| Exponential Distribution | 109 | ||
| Probability Distributions in PHStat | 110 | ||
| Other Useful Distributions | 110 | ||
| Joint and Marginal Probability Distributions | 113 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 114 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 114 | ||
| Case: Probability Analysis for Quality Measurements | 118 | ||
| Chapter 4 SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION | 123 | ||
| Introduction | 124 | ||
| Statistical Sampling | 124 | ||
| Sample Design | 124 | ||
| Sampling Methods | 125 | ||
| Errors in Sampling | 127 | ||
| Random Sampling From Probability Distributions | 127 | ||
| Sampling From Discrete Probability Distributions | 128 | ||
| Skill‐Builder Exercise 4.1 | 129 | ||
| Sampling From Common Probability Distributions | 129 | ||
| A Statistical Sampling Experiment in Finance | 130 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.2 | 130 | ||
| Sampling Distributions and Sampling Error | 131 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.3 | 134 | ||
| Applying the Sampling Distribution of the Mean | 134 | ||
| Sampling and Estimation | 134 | ||
| Point Estimates | 135 | ||
| Unbiased Estimators | 136 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.4 | 137 | ||
| Interval Estimates | 137 | ||
| Confidence Intervals: Concepts and Applications | 137 | ||
| Confidence Interval for the Mean with Known Population Standard Deviation | 138 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.5 | 140 | ||
| Confidence Interval for the Mean with Unknown Population Standard Deviation | 140 | ||
| Confidence Interval for a Proportion | 142 | ||
| Confidence Intervals for the Variance and Standard Deviation | 143 | ||
| Confidence Interval for a Population Total | 145 | ||
| Using Confidence Intervals for Decision Making | 146 | ||
| Confidence Intervals and Sample Size | 146 | ||
| Prediction Intervals | 148 | ||
| Additional Types of Confidence Intervals | 149 | ||
| Differences Between Means, Independent Samples | 149 | ||
| Differences Between Means, Paired Samples | 149 | ||
| Differences Between Proportions | 150 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 150 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 150 | ||
| Case: Analyzing a Customer Survey | 153 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.6 | 155 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.7 | 156 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.8 | 157 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 4.9 | 157 | ||
| Chapter 5 HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND STATISTICAL INFERENCE | 162 | ||
| Introduction | 163 | ||
| Basic Concepts of Hypothesis Testing | 163 | ||
| Hypothesis Formulation | 164 | ||
| Significance Level | 165 | ||
| Decision Rules | 166 | ||
| Spreadsheet Support for Hypothesis Testing | 169 | ||
| One-Sample Hypothesis Tests | 169 | ||
| One-Sample Tests for Means | 169 | ||
| Using p-Values | 171 | ||
| One-Sample Tests for Proportions | 172 | ||
| One Sample Test for the Variance | 174 | ||
| Type II Errors and the Power of A Test | 175 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 5.1 | 177 | ||
| Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests | 177 | ||
| Two-Sample Tests for Means | 177 | ||
| Two-Sample Test for Means with Paired Samples | 179 | ||
| Two-Sample Tests for Proportions | 179 | ||
| Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals | 180 | ||
| Test for Equality of Variances | 181 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 5.2 | 182 | ||
| Anova: Testing Differences of Several Means | 182 | ||
| Assumptions of ANOVA | 184 | ||
| Tukey–Kramer Multiple Comparison Procedure | 184 | ||
| Chi-Square Test for Independence | 186 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 5.3 | 188 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 188 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 188 | ||
| Case: HATCO, Inc. | 191 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 5.4 | 193 | ||
| Chapter 6 REGRESSION ANALYSIS | 196 | ||
| Introduction | 197 | ||
| Simple Linear Regression | 198 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 6.1 | 199 | ||
| Least-Squares Regression | 200 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 6.2 | 202 | ||
| A Practical Application of Simple Regression to Investment Risk | 202 | ||
| Simple Linear Regression in Excel | 203 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 6.3 | 204 | ||
| Regression Statistics | 204 | ||
| Regression as Analysis of Variance | 205 | ||
| Testing Hypotheses for Regression Coefficients | 205 | ||
| Confidence Intervals for Regression Coefficients | 206 | ||
| Confidence and Prediction Intervals for X-Values | 206 | ||
| Residual Analysis and Regression Assumptions | 206 | ||
| Standard Residuals | 208 | ||
| Skill‐Builder Exercise 6.4 | 208 | ||
| Checking Assumptions | 208 | ||
| Multiple Linear Regression | 210 | ||
| Skill‐Builder Exercise 6.5 | 210 | ||
| Interpreting Results from Multiple Linear Regression | 212 | ||
| Correlation and Multicollinearity | 212 | ||
| Building Good Regression Models | 214 | ||
| Stepwise Regression | 217 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 6.6 | 217 | ||
| Best-Subsets Regression | 217 | ||
| The Art of Model Building in Regression | 218 | ||
| Regression with Categorical Independent Variables | 220 | ||
| Categorical Variables with More Than Two Levels | 223 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 6.7 | 225 | ||
| Regression Models with Nonlinear Terms | 225 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 6.8 | 226 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 228 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 228 | ||
| Case: Hatco | 231 | ||
| Chapter 7 FORECASTING | 237 | ||
| Introduction | 238 | ||
| Qualitative and Judgmental Methods | 238 | ||
| Historical Analogy | 239 | ||
| The Delphi Method | 239 | ||
| Indicators and Indexes for Forecasting | 239 | ||
| Statistical Forecasting Models | 240 | ||
| Forecasting Models for Stationary Time Series | 242 | ||
| Moving Average Models | 242 | ||
| Error Metrics and Forecast Accuracy | 244 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 7.1 | 246 | ||
| Exponential Smoothing Models | 246 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 7.2 | 248 | ||
| Forecasting Models for Time Series with a Linear Trend | 248 | ||
| Regression-Based Forecasting | 248 | ||
| Advanced Forecasting Models | 249 | ||
| Autoregressive Forecasting Models | 250 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 7.3 | 252 | ||
| Forecasting Models with Seasonality | 252 | ||
| Incorporating Seasonality in Regression Models | 253 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 7.4 | 255 | ||
| Forecasting Models with Trend and Seasonality | 255 | ||
| Regression Forecasting with Causal Variables | 255 | ||
| Choosing and Optimizing Forecasting Models Using CB Predictor | 257 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 7.5 | 259 | ||
| The Practice of Forecasting | 262 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 263 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 264 | ||
| Case: Energy Forecasting | 265 | ||
| Chapter 8 INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL | 272 | ||
| Introduction | 272 | ||
| The Role of Statistics and Data Analysis in Quality Control | 273 | ||
| Statistical Process Control | 274 | ||
| Control Charts | 274 | ||
| x- and R-Charts | 275 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 8.1 | 280 | ||
| Analyzing Control Charts | 280 | ||
| Sudden Shift in the Process Average | 281 | ||
| Cycles | 281 | ||
| Trends | 281 | ||
| Hugging the Center Line | 281 | ||
| Hugging the Control Limits | 282 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 8.2 | 282 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 8.3 | 284 | ||
| Control Charts for Attributes | 284 | ||
| Variable Sample Size | 286 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 8.4 | 288 | ||
| Process Capability Analysis | 288 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 8.5 | 290 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 290 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 290 | ||
| Case: Quality Control Analysis | 291 | ||
| Part II: Decision Modeling and Analysis | 293 | ||
| Chapter 9 BUILDING AND USING DECISION MODELS | 295 | ||
| Introduction | 295 | ||
| Decision Models | 296 | ||
| Model Analysis | 299 | ||
| What-If Analysis | 299 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.1 | 301 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.2 | 302 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.3 | 302 | ||
| Model Optimization | 302 | ||
| Tools for Model Building | 304 | ||
| Logic and Business Principles | 304 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.4 | 305 | ||
| Common Mathematical Functions | 305 | ||
| Data Fitting | 306 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.5 | 308 | ||
| Spreadsheet Engineering | 308 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.6 | 309 | ||
| Spreadsheet Modeling Examples | 309 | ||
| New Product Development | 309 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.7 | 311 | ||
| Single Period Purchase Decisions | 311 | ||
| Overbooking Decisions | 312 | ||
| Project Management | 313 | ||
| Model Assumptions, Complexity, and Realism | 315 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 9.8 | 317 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 317 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 318 | ||
| Case: An Inventory Management Decision Model | 321 | ||
| Chapter 10 DECISION MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY AND RISK | 324 | ||
| Introduction | 325 | ||
| Spreadsheet Models with Random Variables | 325 | ||
| Monte Carlo Simulation | 326 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 10.1 | 327 | ||
| Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball | 327 | ||
| Defining Uncertain Model Inputs | 328 | ||
| Running a Simulation | 332 | ||
| Saving Crystal Ball Runs | 334 | ||
| Analyzing Results | 334 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 10.2 | 338 | ||
| Crystal Ball Charts | 339 | ||
| Crystal Ball Reports and Data Extraction | 342 | ||
| Crystal Ball Functions and Tools | 342 | ||
| Applications of Monte Carlo Simulation and Crystal Ball Features | 343 | ||
| Newsvendor Model: Fitting Input Distributions, Decision Table Tool, and Custom Distribution | 343 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 10.3 | 347 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 10.4 | 348 | ||
| Overbooking Model: Crystal Ball Functions | 348 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 10.5 | 349 | ||
| Cash Budgeting: Correlated Assumptions | 349 | ||
| New Product Introduction: Tornado Chart Tool | 352 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 10.6 | 353 | ||
| Project Management: Alternate Input Parameters and the Bootstrap Tool | 353 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 10.7 | 358 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 358 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 359 | ||
| Case: J&G Bank | 362 | ||
| Chapter 11 DECISIONS, UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK | 367 | ||
| Introduction | 368 | ||
| Decision Making Under Certainty | 368 | ||
| Decisions Involving a Single Alternative | 369 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 11.1 | 369 | ||
| Decisions Involving Non–mutually Exclusive Alternatives | 369 | ||
| Decisions Involving Mutually Exclusive Alternatives | 370 | ||
| Decisions Involving Uncertainty and Risk | 371 | ||
| Making Decisions with Uncertain Information | 371 | ||
| Decision Strategies for a Minimize Objective | 372 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 11.2 | 374 | ||
| Decision Strategies for a Maximize Objective | 374 | ||
| Risk and Variability | 375 | ||
| Expected Value Decision Making | 377 | ||
| Analysis of Portfolio Risk | 378 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 11.3 | 380 | ||
| The “Flaw of Averages” | 380 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 11.4 | 380 | ||
| Decision Trees | 381 | ||
| A Pharmaceutical R&D Model | 381 | ||
| Decision Trees and Risk | 382 | ||
| Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Trees | 384 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 11.5 | 384 | ||
| The Value of Information | 384 | ||
| Decisions with Sample Information | 386 | ||
| Conditional Probabilities and Bayes’s Rule | 387 | ||
| Utility and Decision Making | 389 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 11.6 | 392 | ||
| Exponential Utility Functions | 393 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 11.7 | 394 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 394 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 395 | ||
| Case: The Sandwich Decision | 399 | ||
| Chapter 12 QUEUES AND PROCESS SIMULATION MODELING | 402 | ||
| Introduction | 402 | ||
| Queues and Queuing Systems | 403 | ||
| Basic Concepts of Queuing Systems | 403 | ||
| Customer Characteristics | 404 | ||
| Service Characteristics | 405 | ||
| Queue Characteristics | 405 | ||
| System Configuration | 405 | ||
| Performance Measures | 406 | ||
| Analytical Queuing Models | 406 | ||
| Single-Server Model | 407 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 12.1 | 408 | ||
| Little’s Law | 408 | ||
| Process Simulation Concepts | 409 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 12.2 | 410 | ||
| Process Simulation with SimQuick | 410 | ||
| Getting Started with SimQuick | 411 | ||
| A Queuing Simulation Model | 412 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 12.3 | 416 | ||
| Queues in Series with Blocking | 417 | ||
| Grocery Store Checkout Model with Resources | 418 | ||
| Manufacturing Inspection Model with Decision Points | 421 | ||
| Pull System Supply Chain with Exit Schedules | 424 | ||
| Other SimQuick Features and Commercial Simulation Software | 426 | ||
| Continuous Simulation Modeling | 427 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 430 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 431 | ||
| Case: Production/Inventory Planning | 434 | ||
| Chapter 13 LINEAR OPTIMIZATION | 435 | ||
| Introduction | 435 | ||
| Building Linear Optimization Models | 436 | ||
| Characteristics of Linear Optimization Models | 439 | ||
| Implementing Linear Optimization Models on Spreadsheets | 440 | ||
| Excel Functions to Avoid in Modeling Linear Programs | 441 | ||
| Solving Linear Optimization Models | 442 | ||
| Solving the SSC Model Using Standard Solver | 442 | ||
| Solving the SSC Model Using Premium Solver | 444 | ||
| Solver Outcomes and Solution Messages | 446 | ||
| Interpreting Solver Reports | 446 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 13.1 | 450 | ||
| How Solver Creates Names in Reports | 451 | ||
| Difficulties with Solver | 451 | ||
| Applications of Linear Optimization | 451 | ||
| Process Selection | 453 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 13.2 | 454 | ||
| Blending | 454 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 13.3 | 456 | ||
| Portfolio Investment | 456 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 13.4 | 457 | ||
| Transportation Problem | 457 | ||
| Interpreting Reduced Costs | 461 | ||
| Multiperiod Production Planning | 461 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 13.5 | 463 | ||
| Multiperiod Financial Planning | 463 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 13.6 | 464 | ||
| A Model with Bounded Variables | 464 | ||
| A Production/Marketing Allocation Model | 469 | ||
| How Solver Works | 473 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 474 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 474 | ||
| Case: Haller’s Pub & Brewery | 481 | ||
| Chapter 14 INTEGER, NONLINEAR, AND ADVANCED OPTIMIZATION METHODS | 482 | ||
| Introduction | 482 | ||
| Integer Optimization Models | 483 | ||
| A Cutting Stock Problem | 483 | ||
| Solving Integer Optimization Models | 484 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 14.1 | 486 | ||
| Integer Optimization Models with Binary Variables | 487 | ||
| Project Selection | 487 | ||
| Site Location Model | 488 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 14.2 | 491 | ||
| Computer Configuration | 491 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 14.3 | 494 | ||
| A Supply Chain Facility Location Model | 494 | ||
| Mixed Integer Optimization Models | 495 | ||
| Plant Location Model | 495 | ||
| A Model with Fixed Costs | 497 | ||
| Nonlinear Optimization | 499 | ||
| Hotel Pricing | 499 | ||
| Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models | 501 | ||
| Markowitz Portfolio Model | 503 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 14.4 | 506 | ||
| Evolutionary Solver for Nonsmooth Optimization | 506 | ||
| Rectilinear Location Model | 508 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 14.5 | 508 | ||
| Job Sequencing | 509 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 14.6 | 512 | ||
| Risk Analysis and Optimization | 512 | ||
| Combining Optimization and Simulation | 515 | ||
| A Portfolio Allocation Model | 515 | ||
| Using OptQuest | 516 | ||
| Skill-Builder Exercise 14.7 | 524 | ||
| Basic Concepts Review Questions | 524 | ||
| Problems and Applications | 524 | ||
| Case: Tindall Bookstores | 530 | ||
| Appendix | 533 | ||
| Index | 545 | ||
| A | 545 | ||
| B | 545 | ||
| C | 545 | ||
| D | 546 | ||
| E | 547 | ||
| F | 547 | ||
| G | 548 | ||
| H | 548 | ||
| I | 548 | ||
| J | 548 | ||
| K | 548 | ||
| L | 548 | ||
| M | 549 | ||
| N | 549 | ||
| O | 549 | ||
| P | 549 | ||
| Q | 550 | ||
| R | 550 | ||
| S | 551 | ||
| T | 552 | ||
| U | 552 | ||
| V | 552 | ||
| W | 552 | ||
| X | 552 | ||
| Z | 552 |