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Economic Development of Emerging East Asia

Economic Development of Emerging East Asia

Frank S.T. Hsiao | Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao

(2017)

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Abstract

Economic Development of Emerging East Asia presents economic studies of Taiwan and South Korea, compares them chiefly with Japan and the United States and finds that these East Asian countries are still in the process of emerging in the world economy. A timely quantitative and econometric analysis of the regional economies of emerging East Asia, the volume examines development indicators, effects of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, productivity growth, catching up and convergence of long run real GDP per capita growth, the time required for a country to catch up, colonialism and economic development in Taiwan and India. Arranged in increasing complexity of economic analyses, the chapters in this book provide a comprehensive understanding of emerging East Asian economies. In addition to serving as a handy reference for regional economists, policy analysts and researchers, Economic Development of Emerging East Asia can also be used as a textbook on economics and business.


“In Economic Development of Emerging East Asia: Catching Up of Taiwan and South Korea, Frank S. T. Hsiao and Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao offer a menu of their selective empirical work on the growth experiences of these notable economies, covering an impressive array of variables, from capital flows and exchange rates to productivity and economic growth. The book features innovative, practical econometric techniques that have been influential in the literature. It is an excellent compilation and an essential resource for any economist focusing on Asian economic development.”
—Michael G. Plummer, Director, SAIS Europe, and Eni Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University, USA


“Professors Frank and Mei-Chu Hsiao provide us with a comprehensive and concise volume on the comparative developments in Korea and Taiwan as the role models of successful development. It is a rich collection from their rigorous research in emerging East Asian economies in the past quarter century […] This book not only significantly contributes to development economics literature and Asian study, but also offers some important lessons for many practitioners in developing countries to further develop their economies.”
—Peter C. Y. Chow, Professor of Economics and Asian Studies, City University of New York, USA


Frank S. T. Hsiao, professor emeritus of economics, Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Boulder, USA, is associate editor of the Journal of Asian Economics. He has published extensively on growth models, production functions, Asian economic development and computer-assisted teaching in leading professional journals, and is the author of Economic and Business Analysis: Quantitative Methods Using Spreadsheets (2011).

Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, professor emerita of economics, Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Denver, USA, has published many articles on econometric analysis of Asian economies. She is the coauthor (along with Frank S. T. Hsiao) of Economic Development of Taiwan: Early Experiences and the Pacific Trade Triangle (2015).


In recent years, the fast growing economies of the Asia-Pacific region have attracted the attention of economists, politicians, researchers and business communities. The economic dynamics of the ever-growing Asia-Pacific region made the United States to adopt a "rebalancing strategy" toward Asia and to propose the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Free Trade Area of Asian-Pacific (FTAA). With uncertainty about Brexit and the current Trump Administration, TPP and FTAA appear to be "dead." Nevertheless, the outlook for the Asia-Pacific region is still favorable with the expectation of continuous growth (IMF, 2014). The long run data from IMF (2016) also indicate the possibility of an Asia-centered world economy.

This book is a collection of the papers published during the two decades at the turn of the century, the period economists generally consider the emergence of the Asia-Pacific century. The major players have been the Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs): Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. However, Singapore and Hong Kong are regarded as city states, thus, development economists usually see Taiwan and South Korea as the countries that truly achieved a "miracle growth." Using historical, quantitative and econometric analyses, this book studies the present and past economies of emerging East Asia, providing future policy implications for economic development.

Chapter topics include development indicators, effects of 1997 Asian financial crisis, productivity growth, catching up and convergence of long-run real GDP per capita growth, the time required for a country to catch up, and a special chapter on colonialism and economic development (in Taiwan and India). A timely collection, the various topics in this book provide a comprehensive understanding of emerging East Asian economies, in addition to economic analyses explaining, among other subjects, the basic concept of total factor productivity and purchasing power parity (international dollars).


Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Cover Cover 1
Front Matter iii
Title page iii
Copyright information iv
Dedication v
Brief contents vii
Contents ix
List of figures xiii
List of tables xvii
Sources of the chapters xix
Acknowledgments xxi
About the authors xxiii
Introduction 1
Part I Studies of emerging east asian economies: Taiwan and korea 9
Chapters (1-5) 11
Chapter 1 Some development indicators of taiwan 11
1.1 Introduction 11
1.2 Some Economic Indexes 12
1.3 Social Indexes 15
1.4 Political and Defense Development Indexes 18
1.5 Concluding Remarks 20
Acknowledgments 20
References 20
Chapter 2 Capital flows and exchange rates during the asian financial crisis 23
2.1 Introduction 23
2.2 Four Explanations of the Crisis 26
2.3 Comparison of Taiwanese and Korean Economies 27
in the 1990s 27
2.3.1 The real sector 28
2.3.2 The external and financial sectors 31
2.4 Short-term Debt, Exchange Rates and Crisis in Korea 38
2.5 On the Currency and Banking Crises 42
2.6 The Causality Test—The Case of Korea 44
2.6.1 The unit root test 44
2.6.2 The cointegration test 45
2.6.3 The ECM causality test 46
2.7 The Causality Test—The Case of Taiwan 48
2.7.1 The unit root test 49
2.7.2 The cointegration test 49
2.7.3 The standard Granger causality test 50
2.8 Conclusion: Lessons and Challenges 51
Sources of Data 54
Acknowledgments 54
References 55
Chapter 3 Productivity growth 59
3.1 Introduction 59
3.2 The Malmquist Productivity Index 63
3.3 Sources of Data 68
3.4 Labor and Capital Productivities 69
3.5 Total Productivity Growth 1979–96 71
3.5.1 Analysis of the cross-section data 71
Comparisons at the aggregate level 71
Correlation coefficients 75
Intercountry coefficients 77
Intracountry coefficients 77
Correlation at the sectoral levels 79
3.5.2 Analysis of time-series data 80
3.6 Productivity Growth of Three Categories 81
3.7 The Innovators of the Manufacturing Industry 83
3.8 Some Concluding Remarks 86
Appendix 3A Overall Industrial Structure of Korea and Taiwan 87
Acknowledgments 89
References 89
Chapter 4 Korean and taiwanese 93
4.1 Introduction 94
4.2 The Malmquist Productivity Index 96
4.3 The Data and Estimation of Productivity Growth Rates 99
4.4 The Structure of the Manufacturing Industry 101
4.5 Aggregate Productivity Performances 105
4.6 The Trend of Each Index among the Three Categories 107
4.7 The Trend of Five Indexes in Each Category 111
4.8 The Innovators 112
4.9 Conclusions 115
Appendix 4A: Sources of Data 116
Acknowledgments 116
References 117
Chapter 5 Colonialism, learning and convergence: A comparison of india and taiwan 119
5.1 Introduction 120
5.2 India and Taiwan in the World Economy 121
5.3 The Colonial Heritage 124
5.4 A Simple Model of Learning 134
5.5 Unit Root-Based Tests of Convergence 139
5.6 A Logistic Model of Convergence 141
5.7 Concluding Remarks 145
Appendix 5A: Explanations of Table 5.1 147
Appendix 5B: Illustration of Table 5.1 148
Acknowledgments 149
References 150
Part II Catching up and convergence in east asian economic growth 155
Chapters (6-9) 157
Chapter 6 Miracle or myth of asian nics’ growth: The irony of numbers 157
6.1 Introduction 157
6.2 The Nature of the “Miracle” 158
6.3 On Total Factor Productivity 161
6.4 On Percentage Contribution of TFP 163
6.5 Other Estimates of TFP Growth Rates and Contribution 168
6.6 Concluding Remarks 172
Acknowledgments 173
References 174
Chapter 7 “Miracle growth” in the twentieth century: International comparisons of 177
7.1 Introduction 177
7.2 International Comparisons of Real GDP per Capita 180
7.2.1 Comparisons of real GDP per capita level 181
7.2.2 Real GDP per capita growth rates 186
7.2.3 Coefficients of variation 191
7.2.4 Comparisons of the prewar and postwar growth of countries 192
7.3 Long-Run Comparisons of Taiwanese and Korean Development 193
7.3.1 Slow postwar recovery 194
7.3.2 The take-off point 195
7.3.3 The Korea–Taiwan reversal 195
7.3.4 On the war damage 197
7.3.5 Japanese legacy 198
7.4 Falling behind the Japanese Growth 202
7.4.1 Real GDP per capita ratios 203
7.4.2 The transition period 204
7.4.3 A common turning point 205
7.5. International and Domestic Environments 206
7.5.1 Performance of Asian NIEs vis-à-vis Japan 206
7.5.2 The world development 207
7.5.3 Why did Korea and Taiwan fall behind Japan? 209
7.6 Regime Change and Structural Change 210
7.6.1 The Perron test 211
7.6.2 The real GDP per capita series 212
7.6.3 The real GDP per capita growth rate series 214
7.7 Concluding Remarks 216
Sources of Data 218
Acknowledgments 218
References 219
Chapter 8 Catching up and convergence: On the long-run growth in east asia 225
8.1 Introduction 225
8.2 Games of Catching Up 227
8.3 A Simple Model of Learning 229
8.4 A Logistic Model of Convergence 232
8.5 Time Required for Convergence 237
8.6 Concluding Remarks 240
Appendix 8A: On the Coefficient of Learning (r) 241
Appendix 8B: Ratio of the GDP Per Capita 242
Appendix 8C: Calculation of the Time Required for Convergence 243
Sources of Data 244
Acknowledgments 244
References 244
Chapter 9 Epilogue: From emerging east asia 247
9.1 Introduction 247
9.2 Cross-Section Comparison of GDP per Capita 249
9.3 Time-Series Comparison of GDP per Capita in PPP 252
9.3.1 Comparison among Asian NIEs, Japan, the United States, China and India 252
9.3.2 Comparison among Asian NIEs, Japan, the United States and the Four EU Countries 255
9.3.3 Comparison among Asian NIEs, Japan, the United States and the ASEAN-4 Countries 258
9.4 Catching Up and Convergence in Emerging East Asia 259
9.5 Conclusion—The Prospect of an Asia-Centered World Economy 261
9.6 Postscript—Q&A 265
Appendix 9A: Derivation of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Exchange Rate 270
Appendix 9B: On the Derivation of the Big Mac Index 271
GDPpc in Big Mac PPP 272
Appendix 9C: Taiwan as the “Republic of Technology” (ROT) 272
Appendix 9D: Taiwan’s Innovative Activities and the World Competitiveness Index 275
Sources of Data 277
References 278
End Matter 281
Index 281