BOOK
Large Risks with Low Probabilities: Perceptions and willingness to take preventive measures against flooding
Tadeusz Tyszka | Piotr Zielonka
(2017)
Additional Information
Book Details
Abstract
This volume contains studies of one particular category of risky situations, namely, those involving highly negative consequences with low probabilities. Situations of this type involve both natural and man-made disasters (e.g. floods, technological hazards, economic crises, epidemics, etc.). Such risks are characterized by two features: (1) they occur relatively rarely (the probability of their occurrence is very low) and (2) they have extremely negative consequences (they are catastrophic). Such events generally cannot be prevented, but one can both try to anticipate them and undertake actions aimed at ameliorating their negative consequences. Consequently, the first part of the book is devoted to risk perception issues. It includes studies devoted to the following questions which arise when people have to deal with probabilities, and small probabilities in particular: How can probabilistic information be communicated effectively? What is the impact of emotions on perceptions of, and reactions to, probabilistic information? Other relevant issues are also discussed. The second part of the book is devoted to protection and insurance against risk. Thus, it includes studies answering the following questions: What determines a person’s willingness to take preventive actions in areas susceptible to severe flooding? How do people form their own risk estimates?
Research presented in the book extends our knowledge of human behavior in situations characterized by large risks and low probabilities, leading to better comprehension of the functioning of cognitive and affective processes in perception and decision making in situations where uncertainty and risk are accompanied by highly negative consequences.
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover | Cover | ||
| Contents | v | ||
| Preface | xi | ||
| About the Editors | xv | ||
| Chapter 1: Psychological reactions to environmental hazards | 1 | ||
| 1.1 WHY STUDY PSYCHOLOGICAL REACTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS? | 1 | ||
| 1.2 ENVIRONMENTAL CUES, SOCIAL CUES, WARNINGS, AND PREDECISIONAL INFORMATION SEARCH | 4 | ||
| 1.3 PERCEPTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS | 7 | ||
| 1.3.1 The difference between expert and lay conceptions of risk | 7 | ||
| 1.3.2 Risk and emotion | 9 | ||
| 1.3.3 Problems with the perception of probabilities | 10 | ||
| 1.4 DECISION-MAKING | 12 | ||
| 1.4.1 Determinants of protective actions and insurance decisions | 14 | ||
| 1.4.1.1 Threat perception: the probability and severity of consequences | 14 | ||
| 1.4.1.2 Personal experience | 16 | ||
| 1.4.1.3 Social norms | 17 | ||
| REFERENCES | 17 | ||
| Chapter 2: Are people interested in probabilities of natural disasters? | 21 | ||
| 2.1 INTRODUCTION | 21 | ||
| 2.2 METHOD | 24 | ||
| 2.2.1 Subjects | 24 | ||
| 2.2.2 Decision scenarios | 24 | ||
| 2.2.3 Experimental procedure | 25 | ||
| 2.3 RESULTS | 26 | ||
| 2.3.1 Data classification | 26 | ||
| 2.3.2 Hypothesis testing | 26 | ||
| 2.3.2.1 Controllable versus uncontrollable scenarios | 26 | ||
| 2.3.2.2 Importance of decision | 29 | ||
| 2.3.2.3 Risk aversion | 31 | ||
| 2.3.2.4 Gender | 32 | ||
| 2.4 DISCUSSION | 32 | ||
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 35 | ||
| REFERENCES | 35 | ||
| APPENDICES | 37 | ||
| Appendix A: Experimental scenarios | 37 | ||
| Life-self | 37 | ||
| House-self | 37 | ||
| Life-others | 38 | ||
| House-others | 38 | ||
| Appendix B: Virus infection scenario (warm-up task) from Bär and Huber (2008) | 39 | ||
| Appendix C: Choice list for the Holt and Laury (2002) task | 39 | ||
| Appendix D: Question for general risk taking assessment | 39 | ||
| Appendix E: Significance of Mann-Whitney U statistics (all tests are one-sided) | 40 | ||
| Appendix F: Statistics by gender (means are weighted by the corresponding group sizes) | 40 | ||
| Chapter 3: Overweighting versus underweighting of small probabilities | 41 | ||
| 3.1 UNDERWEIGHTING AND OVERWEIGHTING OF SMALL PROBABILITIES | 41 | ||
| 3.2 WHEN DO PEOPLE TEND TO OVERWEIGHT SMALL PROBABILITIES? | 44 | ||
| 3.3 WHEN DO PEOPLE UNDERWEIGHT SMALL PROBABILITIES? | 46 | ||
| 3.4 ‘DECISIONS FROM DESCRIPTION’ VERSUS ‘DECISIONS FROM EXPERIENCE’ | 48 | ||
| 3.5 EXPLANATIONS OF THE DESCRIPTION–EXPERIENCE GAP | 51 | ||
| 3.5.1 Sampling bias | 51 | ||
| 3.5.2 Switching behavior | 52 | ||
| 3.5.3 The recency effect | 53 | ||
| 3.5.4 The mere-presentation effect | 53 | ||
| 3.6 THE PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION: HOW TO COMMUNICATE PROBABILITIES | 54 | ||
| 3.7 CONCLUSIONS | 55 | ||
| REFERENCES | 56 | ||
| Chapter 4: The communication of probabilistic information | 59 | ||
| 4.1 INTRODUCTION | 59 | ||
| 4.2 PROBABILITY FORMATS | 60 | ||
| 4.2.1 Numerical probability formats | 61 | ||
| 4.2.1.1 Percentages | 61 | ||
| 4.2.1.2 Frequencies | 61 | ||
| 4.2.1.3 Base rates | 62 | ||
| 4.2.2 Graphical probability formats | 63 | ||
| 4.2.2.1 Graphs | 63 | ||
| 4.2.2.2 Pictographs | 65 | ||
| 4.2.2.3 The Paling Perspective Scale | 66 | ||
| 4.2.3 Verbal probability information | 67 | ||
| 4.3 DISPLAYING PROBABILITY INFORMATION IN A SEQUENTIAL FORMAT: AN EMPIRICAL VERIFICATION | 68 | ||
| 4.4 EXPERIMENTS 1 AND 2: COMPARING A SEQUENTIAL DISPLAY FORMAT WITH OTHER PROBABILITY FORMATS | 69 | ||
| 4.4.1 The research goal | 69 | ||
| 4.4.2 Method | 69 | ||
| 4.4.2.1 Participants | 69 | ||
| 4.4.2.2 Design | 69 | ||
| 4.4.2.3 The sequential display probability format | 70 | ||
| 4.4.2.4 Procedure | 71 | ||
| 4.4.3 Experiment 1 – results | 71 | ||
| 4.4.3.1 Evaluation of house fire risk on the risk affect scale for three probability formats | 71 | ||
| 4.4.3.2 Sensitivity to differences in probability magnitudes | 73 | ||
| 4.4.4 Experiment 2 – results | 74 | ||
| 4.4.4.1 Evaluation of HIV infection risk on the risk affect scale for three probability formats | 74 | ||
| 4.4.4.2 Sensitivity to differences in probability magnitudes | 75 | ||
| 4.5 CONCLUSIONS | 76 | ||
| REFERENCES | 78 | ||
| Chapter 5: The role of emotions in forming judgements about risks | 81 | ||
| 5.1 INTRODUCTION | 81 | ||
| 5.1.1 Risk perception | 81 | ||
| 5.1.2 Hazards and emotions | 83 | ||
| 5.1.3 The study’s aim | 84 | ||
| 5.2 METHOD | 85 | ||
| 5.2.1 Participants | 85 | ||
| 5.2.2 Materials and procedure | 86 | ||
| 5.2.2.1 Scenarios | 86 | ||
| 5.2.2.2 Emotional response measurement | 87 | ||
| 5.2.2.3 Risk perception | 87 | ||
| 5.3 RESULTS | 88 | ||
| Perpetrator: Nature versus Human | 88 | ||
| Harm: Financial versus Physical | 89 | ||
| 5.3.1 The structure of emotional reactions and risk judgements | 90 | ||
| 5.3.2 Mediation analyses | 92 | ||
| 5.4 CONCLUSIONS | 96 | ||
| REFERENCES | 99 | ||
| APPENDIX A: EXPERIMENTAL SCENARIOS | 101 | ||
| Nature-financial | 101 | ||
| Human-financial | 102 | ||
| Nature-physical | 102 | ||
| Human-physical | 102 | ||
| APPENDIX B: COMPENSATION | 103 | ||
| APPENDIX C: PEARSON CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DIFFERENT EMOTIONS | 103 | ||
| APPENDIX D: PEARSON CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN NEGATIVE AFFECT AND SPECIFIC EMOTION FACTORS | 103 | ||
| APPENDIX E: SUMMARY OF MEDIATION ANALYSES RESULTS | 104 | ||
| Chapter 6: What determines willingness to take preventive actions in areas experiencing severe flooding? | 105 | ||
| 6.1 INTRODUCTION | 105 | ||
| 6.2 METHOD | 109 | ||
| 6.3 RESULTS | 109 | ||
| 6.3.1 How did inhabitants of the areas exposed to flood hazards perceive the threat? | 110 | ||
| 6.3.2 Determinants of willingness to take preventive actions against flood hazard | 111 | ||
| 6.4 CONCLUSIONS | 114 | ||
| REFERENCES | 117 | ||
| Chapter 7: Cognitive and emotional factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster | 119 | ||
| 7.1 INTRODUCTION | 119 | ||
| 7.1.1 Cognitive factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster | 120 | ||
| 7.1.2 Emotional factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster | 121 | ||
| 7.1.3 The role of personal experience in the propensity to insure oneself against disaster | 122 | ||
| 7.1.4 Overview of the present study and hypotheses | 124 | ||
| 7.2 EXPERIMENT 1 | 124 | ||
| 7.2.1 Method | 124 | ||
| 7.2.1.1 Subjects | 124 | ||
| 7.2.1.2 Design | 124 | ||
| 7.2.1.3 The Experimental Insurance Task (EIT) | 124 | ||
| 7.2.1.4 Procedure | 125 | ||
| 7.2.2 Results | 126 | ||
| 7.2.2.1 The effects of personal experience on insurance purchasing decisions | 126 | ||
| 7.2.2.2 Indirect effects of personal experience of a disaster on insurance decisions. The role of feelings of worry and subjective probability | 127 | ||
| 7.2.3 Discussion | 128 | ||
| 7.3 EXPERIMENT 2 | 129 | ||
| 7.3.1 Method | 129 | ||
| 7.3.1.1 Subjects | 129 | ||
| 7.3.1.2 Design and procedure | 129 | ||
| 7.3.2 Results | 129 | ||
| 7.3.2.1 The effects of personal experience on insurance purchasing decisions | 129 | ||
| 7.3.2.2 Indirect effects of personal experience of a disaster on insurance decisions. The role of feelings of worry and subjective probability | 130 | ||
| 7.3.3 Discussion | 131 | ||
| 7.4 EXPERIMENT 3 | 132 | ||
| 7.4.1 Method | 132 | ||
| 7.4.1.1 Subjects | 132 | ||
| 7.4.1.2 Design and procedure | 132 | ||
| 7.4.2 Results | 132 | ||
| 7.4.3 Discussion | 133 | ||
| 7.5 CONCLUSIONS | 134 | ||
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 136 | ||
| REFERENCES | 136 | ||
| APPENDIX | 138 | ||
| Chapter 8: Peer effects in catastrophic risk insurance take-up | 141 | ||
| 8.1 INTRODUCTION | 141 | ||
| 8.2 PEER EFFECTS: MECHANISMS | 142 | ||
| 8.3 PEER EFFECTS: EMPIRICAL STUDIES | 144 | ||
| 8.4 EXPERIMENTAL STUDY: DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY | 147 | ||
| 8.4.1 General set-up | 148 | ||
| 8.4.2 Treatments | 150 | ||
| 8.4.3 Lab details | 151 | ||
| 8.4.4 Predictions | 151 | ||
| 8.5 EXPERIMENTAL STUDY: RESULTS | 151 | ||
| 8.6 CONCLUSIONS | 154 | ||
| REFERENCES | 155 | ||
| Chapter 9: The illusion of safety: its existence, forms and remedies | 157 | ||
| 9.1 INTRODUCTION | 157 | ||
| 9.2 STUDY 1: THE ILLUSION OF SAFETY IN THE LABORATORY | 159 | ||
| 9.2.1 Participants | 160 | ||
| 9.2.2 Procedure, scenarios and questions | 160 | ||
| 9.2.3 Results | 161 | ||
| 9.3 STUDY 2: THE ILLUSION OF SAFETY IN THE FIELD | 162 | ||
| 9.3.1 The participant sample | 163 | ||
| 9.3.2 Method and questionnaire | 164 | ||
| 9.3.3 Results | 166 | ||
| 9.3.3.1 Worry and subjective probabilities – intergroup comparisons | 166 | ||
| 9.3.3.2 Worry and subjective probabilities – individual differences | 169 | ||
| 9.3.3.3 Decisions about insurance and individual prevention | 171 | ||
| 9.4 CONCLUSIONS | 172 | ||
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 174 | ||
| REFERENCES | 174 | ||
| APPENDIX | 175 | ||
| Chapter 10: Education and information as a basis for flood risk management – practical issues | 177 | ||
| 10.1 WHY FLOOD EDUCATION? | 177 | ||
| 10.2 ACTORS IN THE FLOOD RISK EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION PROCESS | 179 | ||
| 10.2.1 Broadcasters | 179 | ||
| 10.2.1.1 Institutions responsible for flood risk management | 179 | ||
| 10.2.1.2 National weather services | 180 | ||
| 10.2.2 Communication intermediaries | 180 | ||
| 10.2.2.1 Non-governmental organizations | 180 | ||
| 10.2.2.2 Schools | 180 | ||
| 10.2.2.3 Mass media | 180 | ||
| 10.2.3 Receivers | 180 | ||
| 10.2.3.1 Threatened residents | 180 | ||
| 10.2.3.2 Administration | 181 | ||
| 10.3 OBJECTIVES OF FLOOD-RELATED EDUCATION | 182 | ||
| 10.4 CONTENT OF FLOOD-RELATED EDUCATION | 182 | ||
| 10.4.1 Main characteristics of flood hazard | 183 | ||
| 10.4.2 Knowledge of local causes of floods | 184 | ||
| 10.4.3 Flood risk reduction measures | 186 | ||
| 10.5 PROBLEMS OF PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE | 188 | ||
| 10.5.1 Responsibility for safety | 188 | ||
| 10.5.2 Illusion of safety | 189 | ||
| 10.5.3 Communication of risk | 191 | ||
| 10.6 FACILITATING ACCESS TO IMPORTANT INFORMATION ON FLOOD RISK | 193 | ||
| 10.6.1 Improving the transfer of basic information | 194 | ||
| 10.6.2 Providing people with guidebooks, brochures, and manuals addressed to vulnerable constituencies | 195 | ||
| 10.6.3 Supporting social action and grassroots initiatives | 196 | ||
| 10.7 INSTRUMENTS STRENGTHENING THE FLOOD-RELATED EDUCATION SYSTEM | 197 | ||
| 10.8 CONCLUSIONS | 198 | ||
| REFERENCES | 199 | ||
| Author Index | 203 | ||
| Subject Index | 211 |