BOOK
The Ocean Economy in 2030
(2017)
Additional Information
Book Details
Abstract
This report explores the growth prospects for the ocean economy, its capacity for future employment creation and innovation, and its role in addressing global challenges. Special attention is devoted to the emerging ocean-based industries in light of their high growth and innovation potential, and contribution to addressing challenges such as energy security, environment, climate change and food security.The report examines the risks and uncertainties surrounding the future development of ocean industries, the innovations required in science and technology to support their progress, their potential contribution to green growth and some of the implications for ocean management. Finally, and looking across the future ocean economy as a whole, it explores possible avenues for action that could boost its long-term development prospects while managing the use of the ocean itself in responsible, sustainable ways. This book belongs to the OECD Report Series
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover | Cover | ||
| Table of contents | 7 | ||
| Acronyms and abbreviations | 11 | ||
| Executive summary | 13 | ||
| Chapter 1: An overview of the ocean economy: Assessments and recommendations | 17 | ||
| Introducing the ocean economy | 18 | ||
| Economic activities in an ocean environment | 19 | ||
| The ocean economy as a cluster of interconnected industries | 20 | ||
| Differences in terminology | 21 | ||
| Definition and concept of the ocean economy | 21 | ||
| Scope of the ocean economy | 22 | ||
| Ocean-based industries | 22 | ||
| Marine ecosystems | 23 | ||
| Ocean-based industries contribute roughly USD 1.5 trillion (2.5%) to global gross value added | 23 | ||
| Forces shaping the evolution of the ocean economy to 2030 | 25 | ||
| Population | 25 | ||
| Global economic growth and international trade | 26 | ||
| Food | 26 | ||
| Energy | 27 | ||
| Ocean environment | 27 | ||
| Science, technology and innovation | 28 | ||
| International regulation and governance of the ocean economy | 29 | ||
| The ocean economy in 2030 | 30 | ||
| Modelling the ocean economy’s industries suggests that some of them have the potential to outperform average world economic grow | 30 | ||
| Ocean industries also have the potential to make an important contribution to employment growth | 31 | ||
| Alternative scenarios suggest that only relatively small differences in total value added would be expected compared to the business-as-usual scenario | 32 | ||
| An expanding ocean economy leads to growing pressures on marine resources and ocean space | 33 | ||
| Integrated ocean management offers significant opportunities for addressing these challenges, but needs better tools to work with | 33 | ||
| Recommendations: An agenda for international co-operation for a sustainable ocean economy | 34 | ||
| 1. Foster greater international co-operation in maritime science and technology as a means to stimulate innovation and strengthen the sustainable development\r\nof the ocean economy | 35 | ||
| 1. Better exploit potential technology and innovation synergies among ocean industries | 35 | ||
| 2. Support efforts to accelerate more extensive mapping of the ocean floor | 37 | ||
| 3. Improve the sharing of technology and innovation among countries at different levels of development | 37 | ||
| 2. Strengthen integrated ocean management | 38 | ||
| 1. Make better use of economic analysis and economic instruments in integrated ocean management | 39 | ||
| 2. Improve data collection, management and integration | 41 | ||
| 3. Promote more innovation in governance structures, processes and stakeholder engagement to improve integrated ocean management | 42 | ||
| 3. Improve the statistical and methodological base at national and international level for measuring the scale and performance of ocean-based industries and their contribution to the overall economy | 44 | ||
| 4. Build more capacity for ocean industry foresight | 44 | ||
| Annex 1.A1: Scope of the ocean-based industries | 46 | ||
| Annex 1.A2: Measuring the value of marine ecosystems | 49 | ||
| Notes | 51 | ||
| References | 52 | ||
| Part I: Global trends and macro-factors \ninfluencing the ocean economy | 55 | ||
| Chapter 2: Global trends and uncertainties to 2030/2060 | 57 | ||
| World population: Still growing, urbanising and ageing | 58 | ||
| The trends | 58 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 59 | ||
| Some implications for the ocean economy | 60 | ||
| Climate-ocean interactions | 60 | ||
| The trends | 60 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 61 | ||
| Some implications for the ocean economy | 62 | ||
| The global economy: Slower growth, geographical shifts and the rise of the middle class | 62 | ||
| The trends | 62 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 63 | ||
| Some implications for the ocean economy | 64 | ||
| Energy: Continuing dominance of fossil fuels but a changing energy landscape | 65 | ||
| The trends | 65 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 65 | ||
| Some implications for the ocean economy | 66 | ||
| Metals and minerals: Continuing pressures on the supply side | 67 | ||
| The trends | 67 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 68 | ||
| Implications for the ocean economy | 68 | ||
| Global food supplies: Continuing pressures and uncertainties | 69 | ||
| The trends | 69 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 70 | ||
| Some implications for the ocean economy | 70 | ||
| Technological developments | 71 | ||
| The trends | 71 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 72 | ||
| Implications for the ocean economy | 72 | ||
| Geopolitical developments: A multipolar world in flux | 73 | ||
| The trends | 73 | ||
| Risks and uncertainties | 73 | ||
| Implications for the ocean economy | 74 | ||
| Concluding remarks | 75 | ||
| References | 75 | ||
| Chapter 3: Expected changes to the ocean environment: Impacts on the ocean economy | 79 | ||
| Introduction | 80 | ||
| Sea temperatures and sea levels | 80 | ||
| Situation to date and likely future trends | 81 | ||
| Physical and biological implications | 82 | ||
| Likely effects on the ocean economy | 83 | ||
| Acidification | 84 | ||
| Situation to date and likely future trends | 84 | ||
| Physical and biological implications | 85 | ||
| Likely effects on the ocean economy | 86 | ||
| Ocean as regulator of concentration of oxygen | 87 | ||
| Situation to date and likely future trends | 87 | ||
| Physical and biological implications | 89 | ||
| Likely effects on the ocean economy | 90 | ||
| Ocean currents and circulation patterns | 91 | ||
| Situation to date and likely future trends | 91 | ||
| Physical and biological implications | 92 | ||
| Likely effects on the ocean economy | 92 | ||
| Ocean and the hydrological cycle | 93 | ||
| State to date and likely future trends | 93 | ||
| Physical and biological implications | 93 | ||
| Likely effects on the ocean economy | 93 | ||
| Unsustainable fishing | 94 | ||
| State to date and likely future trends | 94 | ||
| Physical and biological implications | 95 | ||
| Likely effects on the ocean economy | 96 | ||
| Pollution | 97 | ||
| State to date and likely future trends | 97 | ||
| Physical and biological implications | 99 | ||
| Likely effects on the ocean economy | 99 | ||
| Conclusion | 100 | ||
| Notes | 101 | ||
| References | 102 | ||
| Part II: Critical factors influencing \nthe emerging ocean-based industries | 117 | ||
| Chapter 4: Science, technology and innovation in tomorrow’s ocean economy | 119 | ||
| Science: Knowledge for the ocean economy | 121 | ||
| Incremental technology development in the ocean economy | 122 | ||
| Advanced materials | 122 | ||
| Nanotechnology | 123 | ||
| Biotechnology | 123 | ||
| Subsea engineering and technology | 123 | ||
| Sensors and imaging | 124 | ||
| Satellite technologies | 125 | ||
| Computerisation and big data analytics | 125 | ||
| Autonomous systems | 126 | ||
| Disruptive and step-change innovations combining multiple technologies | 126 | ||
| Case 1: Ocean floor mapping | 127 | ||
| Case 2: E-navigation, sea traffic management and smart shipping | 128 | ||
| Case 3: Sustainable strategies for dealing with offshore oil spills | 130 | ||
| Case 4: Traceability of fish stocks and fish products | 131 | ||
| Promoting innovation for a sustainable ocean economy | 132 | ||
| Towards a more integrated understanding of the oceans | 133 | ||
| Doing more with less – Leveraging technology synergies among ocean sectors | 133 | ||
| Inter-sectoral technology synergies | 133 | ||
| Innovation through networks of maritime industry clusters | 137 | ||
| Multiple-use platforms | 137 | ||
| A new culture of training and education | 138 | ||
| Foresight studies of the ocean economy | 139 | ||
| Concluding remarks | 140 | ||
| Notes | 140 | ||
| Annex 4.A1: EU multi-use ocean platform projects | 141 | ||
| References | 143 | ||
| Chapter 5: International maritime regulation and emerging ocean-based industries | 147 | ||
| Protection of marine biodiversity | 148 | ||
| Pollution (air and ocean) | 152 | ||
| Air emissions from shipping are significant | 152 | ||
| Maritime safety | 156 | ||
| Concluding remarks | 159 | ||
| Notes | 160 | ||
| References | 160 | ||
| Chapter 6: Measuring the global economic contribution of ocean-based industries | 163 | ||
| The OECD Ocean Economy Database | 164 | ||
| Sources and data used | 165 | ||
| Estimates of global value added and employment in the ocean economy overall | 166 | ||
| Estimates of value added and employment in selected ocean industries | 168 | ||
| Sea and coastal water transport (shipping) | 168 | ||
| Shipbuilding and repair | 168 | ||
| Marine equipment | 169 | ||
| Port activities | 170 | ||
| Maritime and coastal tourism | 170 | ||
| Industrial capture fisheries | 171 | ||
| Industrial marine aquaculture | 172 | ||
| Fish processing | 173 | ||
| Offshore oil and gas | 174 | ||
| Offshore wind | 174 | ||
| Concluding remarks | 175 | ||
| Notes | 176 | ||
| Annex 6.A1: Current value estimation | 177 | ||
| National-level studies on ocean-based industries | 178 | ||
| References | 180 | ||
| Part III: Perspectives on and projections \nof the future of the ocean economy | 185 | ||
| Chapter 7: Growth prospects, challenges and uncertainties for selected ocean industries | 187 | ||
| Sectors with prospects for modest business and employment growth | 188 | ||
| Capture fisheries | 188 | ||
| Offshore oil and gas production in deep and ultra-deep water and in the Arctic | 189 | ||
| Sectors with prospects for high long-term growth of business and employment | 190 | ||
| Shipping | 190 | ||
| Shipbuilding | 191 | ||
| Offshore wind | 192 | ||
| Marine aquaculture | 193 | ||
| Marine tourism | 193 | ||
| Maritime surveillance and safety | 194 | ||
| Sectors with significant long-term potential but not operating at commercial scale for some time to come | 195 | ||
| Ocean renewable energy | 195 | ||
| Deep-sea mining | 196 | ||
| Marine biotechnology | 197 | ||
| Carbon capture and storage | 199 | ||
| Concluding observations | 199 | ||
| Chapter 8: Ocean industries to 2030 | 203 | ||
| Business-as-usual scenario | 204 | ||
| Summary of the results | 204 | ||
| Value added and employment in the ocean economy in 2030 | 205 | ||
| Business-as-usual scenario | 205 | ||
| Industry-specific value added and employment in 2030 | 207 | ||
| Water transport | 207 | ||
| Shipbuilding and repair | 207 | ||
| Maritime equipment | 207 | ||
| Port activities | 208 | ||
| Maritime and coastal tourism | 208 | ||
| Industrial capture fisheries | 209 | ||
| Industrial marine aquaculture | 209 | ||
| Industrial fish processing | 210 | ||
| Offshore oil and gas | 210 | ||
| Offshore wind | 211 | ||
| Ocean industries to 2030 in two alternative scenarios | 212 | ||
| Concluding observations | 213 | ||
| Notes | 214 | ||
| Annex 8.A1: Methodology of the business-as-usual scenario | 216 | ||
| Methodology of the “sustainable and unsustainable growth” scenario | 216 | ||
| References | 218 | ||
| Chapter 9: Towards integrated ocean management | 221 | ||
| A changing geopolitical landscape and governance of the high seas | 222 | ||
| Governance in economic exclusion zones | 224 | ||
| Integrated coastal zone management | 226 | ||
| Marine spatial planning | 226 | ||
| Marine protected areas | 226 | ||
| Pathways to more effective ocean management | 227 | ||
| Greater use of economic analysis and economic instruments | 228 | ||
| Valuing ocean ecosystem services | 228 | ||
| Cost-benefit analysis | 228 | ||
| Use of economic instruments | 229 | ||
| Non-market valuation techniques | 230 | ||
| Innovations in the governance and management of ocean space | 230 | ||
| Applying user and property rights | 231 | ||
| Building flexibility into institutional arrangements | 232 | ||
| Improving co-ordination across government | 233 | ||
| Innovating the mechanisms of stakeholder engagement | 234 | ||
| Making better use of science, technology and innovation | 235 | ||
| Data and technological infrastructure to support ocean management | 235 | ||
| Data, assessment and monitoring | 239 | ||
| Concluding remarks | 240 | ||
| References | 240 | ||
| Annex A: Acknowledgments | 245 | ||
| Annex B: Workshops | 251 |