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Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management

BOOK

Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management

Nicolas R. Dalezios

(2017)

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Book Details

ISBN
978-1-78040-713-5
Edition
1
Language
English
Pages
560
Subjects
The environment
Environmental science, engineering & technology
Water supply & treatment

Abstract

From the beginning of 21st century, there has been an awareness of risk in the environment along with a growing concern for the continuing potential damage caused by hazards. In order to ensure environmental sustainability, a better understanding of natural disasters and their impacts is essential.   It has been recognized that a holistic and integrated approach to environmental hazards needs to be attempted using common methodologies, such as risk analysis, which involves risk management and risk assessment. Indeed, risk management means reducing the threats posed by known hazards, whereas at the same time accepting unmanageable risks and maximizing any related benefits.   The risk management framework involves evaluating the importance of a risk, either quantitatively or qualitatively. Risk assessment comprises three steps, namely risk identification (data base, event monitoring, statistical inference), risk estimation (magnitude, frequency, economic costs) and risk evaluation (cost-benefit analysis).   Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, risk governance, i.e. the need for a feedback of all the risk assessment undertakings. There is currently a lack of such feedback which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards.   This book emphasises methodological approaches and procedures of the three main components in the study of environmental hazards, namely forecasting - nowcasting (before), monitoring (during) and assessment (after), based on geoinformatic technologies and data and simulation through examples and case studies.   These are considered within the risk management framework and, in particular, within the three components of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This approach is a contemporary and innovative procedure and constitutes current research in the field of environmental hazards.   Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management covers hydrological hazards (floods, droughts, storms, hail, desertification), biophysical hazards (frost, heat waves, epidemics, forest fires), geological hazards (landslides, snow avalanches), tectonic hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes), and technological hazards.   This book provides a text and a resource on environmental hazards for senior undergraduate students, graduate students on all courses related to environmental hazards and risk assessment and management. It is a valuable handbook for researchers and professionals of environmental science, environmental economics and management, and engineering. Editor: Nicolas R. Dalezios, University of Thessaly, Greece

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Cover Cover
Contents vii
About the editor xvii
List of Contributors xviii
Preface xxi
Acknowledgements xxiv
Part 1: Prolegomena 1
Chapter 1: Environmental hazards concepts 2
1.1 CONCEPTS AND SCOPE OF ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS 2
1.1.1 Concepts of environmental hazards and disasters 2
1.1.2 Scope of hazards and disasters 3
1.2 A TYPOLOGY AND CLASSIFICATION OF HAZARDS 4
1.2.1 Hydrometeorological hazards 6
1.2.1.1 Storms 6
1.2.1.2 Droughts 6
1.2.1.3 Floods 7
1.2.1.4 Desertification 8
1.2.2 Biophysical hazards 9
1.2.2.1 Heatwaves 9
1.2.2.2 Wildfires 9
1.2.2.3 Frost 10
1.2.2.4 Biological Hazards 10
1.2.3 Geophysical hazards 11
1.2.3.1 Geological hazards 11
1.2.3.2 Earthquakes 11
1.2.3.3 Volcanoes 12
1.2.3.4 Technological hazards 13
1.3 CAUSES – FACTORS – FEATURES – DRIVERS OF HAZARDS 14
1.3.1 Features and characteristics of hazards 14
1.3.2 Factors and drivers of hazards 15
1.4 DIACHRONIC EVOLUTION AND TRENDS OF HAZARDS 16
1.5 HAZARD AND RISK ANALYSIS 18
1.5.1 Hazard and risk concepts 18
1.5.2 Risk management framework 20
1.5.2.1 Risk identification and quantification 20
1.5.2.2 Risk estimation and vulnerability assessment 21
1.5.2.3 Risk assessment 22
1.5.2.4 Risk evaluation 22
1.5.2.5 Risk governance 23
1.6 LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF HAZARDS 24
1.7 SUMMARY 27
REFERENCES 27
Chapter 2: Multi-hazard risk assessment and decision making 31
2.1 RISK 34
2.2 MULTI-HAZARD RISK 39
2.2.1 Independent events 39
2.2.2 Coupled events 40
2.2.3 One hazard changes conditions for the next 41
2.2.4 Domino or cascading hazards 42
2.2.5 Example of multi-hazard chain: Layou Valley landslides in Dominica, Caribbean 42
2.3 RISK ANALYSIS APPROACHES 45
2.3.1 Quantitative risk assessment 47
2.3.2 Event-tree approaches 50
2.3.3 Risk matrix approach 53
2.3.4 Indicator-based approach 54
2.4 RISK ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING: A CASE STUDY 57
2.4.1 The case study data set 58
2.4.2 Hazard input data 60
2.4.3 Input data: elements-at-risk 61
2.4.4 Input data: vulnerability curves 62
2.4.5 Input data: administrative units 62
2.5 ANALYSING THE CURRENT LEVEL OF RISK 62
2.5.1 Stakeholders 62
2.5.2 Hazard modelling and elements-at-risk/vulnerability assessment 64
2.5.3 Risk analysis 65
2.5.4 Risk evaluation 68
2.6 ANALYSING THE BEST PLANNING ALTERNATIVE 70
2.6.1 Defining possible planning alternatives 70
2.6.2 Re-analysing hazards and elements-at-risk 73
2.6.3 Analyse risk reduction 74
2.6.4 Compare alternatives 75
2.6.5 Final decision and implementation 75
2.7 ANALYSING POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS 75
2.7.1 Identification of possible future scenarios 76
2.7.2 Re-analysing hazards and elements-at-risk for possible future scenarios 76
2.7.3 Analyse possible changes risk for possible future scenarios 79
2.7.4 Changing risk evaluation 79
2.8 ANALYSING PLANNING ALTERNATIVES UNDER POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS 80
2.8.1 Selection of alternatives, scenarios and future years 81
2.8.2 Re-analysing hazards and elements-at-risk for alternatives/scenarios 81
2.8.3 Analyse risk reduction for alternatives/scenarios 84
2.8.4 Compare alternatives under different scenarios 84
2.8.5 Final decision and implementation 84
2.9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 86
2.9.1 Which method to choose? 86
2.9.2 Tools for multi-hazard assessment 89
2.9.3 Development of a spatial decision support system 90
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 90
REFERENCES 91
Part 2: Hydrometeorological Hazards Methodologies 95
Chapter 3: Storms 96
3.1 STORM CONCEPTS 96
3.2 CLASSIFICATION OF STORMS 97
3.2.1 Single-cell, multi-cell, supercell and squall lines 98
3.2.2 Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) 101
3.2.3 Tropical and extratropical cyclones 104
3.2.3.1 Tropical cyclones 104
3.2.3.2 Extratropical cyclones 105
3.2.4 Features of storms 106
3.2.4.1 Vertical structure of storms 106
3.2.4.2 Seasonality of storms. 108
3.2.5 Tornadoes-lightning-flash floods 108
3.2.5.1 Tornadoes 108
3.2.5.2 Lightning 110
3.2.5.3 Flash floods 111
3.2.6 Precipitation efficiency 111
3.3 STORM DETECTION 112
3.3.1 Conventional radar 112
3.3.1.1 Non-coherent radar 112
3.3.1.2 Coherent or doppler radar 115
3.3.2 Polarimetric radar 115
3.3.2.1 Principles and variables 116
3.3.2.2 Additional variables 117
3.4 STORM MODELLING AND FORECASTING 119
3.4.1 Storm modelling 119
3.4.1.1 Cloud models 119
3.4.1.2 Mesoscale models 120
3.4.2 Storm forecasting 122
3.4.2.1 Predictive signals 122
3.4.2.2 Strom tracking and nowcasting 122
3.5 HAIL 125
3.5.1 Hail formation 125
3.5.2 Hail detection 128
3.5.3 Hail forecasting 129
3.5.4 Hail suppression 131
3.6 SUMMARY 133
REFERENCES 133
Chapter 4: Floods 137
4.1 FLOOD AND FLOOD RISK 137
4.1.1 The flood hydrograph and its shape 138
4.1.2 Floods as a natural disaster 139
4.1.3 The flood risk system: terms and concepts 140
4.2 FLOOD TYPOLOGIES AND SCALES 143
4.2.1 The case of flash floods 145
4.2.2 Forensic analysis of flood peaks 147
4.3 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT 149
4.3.1 The components of risk 152
4.4 FLOOD HAZARD ASSESSMENT 154
4.4.1 Flood frequency analysis 154
4.4.1.1 At-site flood frequency analysis 156
4.4.1.2 Regional flood frequency analysis 157
4.4.1.3 Extension of the regional flood frequency analysis 158
4.4.2 Rainfall-runoff modelling 158
4.4.3 Hydraulic modelling 160
4.5 THE CONSEQUENCES OF FLOOD: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 160
4.5.1 Social vulnerability to flood and the case of flash floods 162
4.6 FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING 164
4.6.1 Flood forecasting, catchment scales and response times 165
4.6.2 The case of flash floods 167
4.7 CONCLUSION 169
REFERENCES 170
Chapter 5: Droughts 177
5.1 DROUGHT CONCEPTS 177
5.1.1 Drought definitions and types 177
5.1.2 Factors and features of drought 179
5.2 DROUGHT RISK IDENTIFICATION 182
5.2.1 Global composite drought indices 183
5.2.1.1 US drought monitor (USDM) 184
5.2.1.2 European drought observatory (EDO) model 185
5.2.2 Composite indices of different drought types 186
5.2.2.1 Meteorological drought indices 186
5.2.2.2 Agricultural drought indices 190
5.2.2.3 Hydrological drought indices 190
5.2.2.4 Remotely sensed drought indices 192
5.2.2.5 Aggregation of drought indices 193
5.2.3 Description of representative drought indices 194
5.2.4 Drought early warning systems (DEWS) 197
5.3 DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT 200
5.3.1 Drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) relationships 200
5.4 DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT 205
5.4.1 Drought impacts 206
5.4.2 Drought mitigation 206
5.5 SUMMARY 207
REFERENCES 208
Chapter 6: Land desertification 211
6.1 DESERTIFICATION CONCEPTS AND CHARACTERISTICS 211
6.2 CAUSES AND PROCESS OF LAND DESERTIFICATION 213
6.2.1 Soil erosion 213
6.2.2 Soil salinization 214
6.2.3 Water stress 215
6.2.4 Forest fires 215
6.2.5 Overgrazing 217
6.3 FACTORS OF LAND DESERTIFICATION 218
6.3.1 Climate 218
6.3.2 Water resources 219
6.3.3 Soils 220
6.3.4 Vegetation 221
6.3.5 Socio-economics 222
6.4 DESERTIFICATION RISK IDENTIFICATION 223
6.4.1 Using indicators 223
6.4.2 Applying models 228
6.4.3 Assessing the state of land degradation 229
6.5 DESERTIFICATION RISK ASSESSMENT 230
6.6 DESERTIFICATION RISK MANAGEMENT 231
6.6.1 Land management practices 232
6.6.2 Assessing land management practices 236
6.7 SUMMARY 238
REFERENCES 239
Part 3: Biophysical Hazards Methodologies 245
Chapter 7: Frost and heatwaves 246
7.1 FROST AND HEATWAVES HAZARDS 246
7.1.1 Frost concepts 247
7.1.2 Heatwaves concepts 248
7.1.3 Fog hazard 249
7.2 FROST AND HEATWAVES CHARACTERISTICS 250
7.2.1 Frost classification 250
7.2.2 Heatwaves characteristics 253
7.3 FROST AND HEATWAVES RISK IDENTIFICATION 254
7.3.1 Frost quantification 254
7.3.1.1 Frost modelling and forecasting methods 256
7.3.1.2 Frost early warning systems (FEWS) 260
7.3.2 Heatwaves quantification 260
7.3.2.1 Heatwaves indices 260
7.3.2.2 Heatwaves early warning systems (HEWS) 262
7.3.3 Fog modelling and assessment 262
7.4 FROST AND HEATWAVES RISK ASSESSMENT 263
7.4.1 Frost frequency analysis 263
7.4.2 Heatwaves frequency analysis 266
7.5 FROST AND HEATWAVES RISK MANAGEMENT 270
7.5.1 Frost impacts and mitigation 270
7.5.1.1 Frost impacts and prevention 270
7.5.1.2 Frost protection and mitigation methods 271
7.5.2 Heatwaves protection and mitigation 272
7.5.3 Fog mitigation 274
7.6 SUMMARY 275
REFERENCES 275
Chapter 8: Climatic Hazards and Health 278
8.1 CLIMATE AND CUMULATIVE HAZARDS 278
8.1.1 Climate hazards 279
8.1.2 Cumulative hazards 279
8.2 CLIMATE AND HEALTH 281
8.2.1 Climate change and health 283
8.2.2 Climate change and infectious diseases 286
8.2.3 Climate change mitigation and adaptation to health issues 288
8.3 BIOLOGICAL AND HEALTH HAZARDS 289
8.3.1 Classification of biohazards 291
8.3.2 Pandemics 291
8.4 INSECT HAZARDS 292
8.5 EPIDEMIOLOGY OF DISASTERS 294
8.5.1 Diseases associated with each type of disaster 295
8.5.2 Mitigation and prevention 296
8.6 BIOCLIMATOLOGICAL CONCEPTS AND METHODS 297
8.6.1 Human bioclimatology 297
8.6.2 Plant bioclimatology 301
8.6.3 Animal bioclimatology 302
8.6.4 Phenology 303
8.6.5 Aerobiology 303
8.7 SUMMARY 304
REFERENCES 304
Chapter 9: Wildland fires 307
9.1 WILDFIRE RISK CONCEPTS 308
9.2 DEFINITIONS AND STANDARDS FOR WILDFIRE RISK 309
9.3 QUANTIFICATION OF WILDFIRE RISK 311
9.3.1 Wildfire likelihood 312
9.3.2 Fire intensity 317
9.3.3 Fire susceptibility 318
9.4 WILDFIRE RISK MANAGEMENT 322
9.5 FIRE RISK GEO-INFORMATICS 324
9.6 FIRE MODELS TO SUPPORT WILDFIRE RISK MANAGEMENT 325
9.7 EPILOGUE 329
REFERENCES 329
Part 4: Geophysical Hazards Methodologies 339
Chapter 10: Geological hazards 340
10.1 MASS MOVEMENT HAZARDS 340
10.1.1 Slope deformations 340
10.1.2 Snow avalanches 341
10.1.3 Ice avalanches 343
10.2 LANDSLIDES 343
10.2.1 Landslides classification 343
10.2.2 Landslide causes 345
10.2.2.1 Geological causes 345
10.2.2.2 Morphological causes 345
10.2.2.3 Human causes 345
10.3 SNOW AVALANCHES 346
10.3.1 Types of snowpack 347
10.3.2 Avalanche formation and motion 349
10.4 SLOPE MOVEMENTS MITIGATION 350
10.5 AVALANCHE MITIGATION 351
10.6 MASS MOVEMENT HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT 353
10.6.1 Risk terminology 353
10.6.2 Methods of landslides hazards assessment 354
10.6.2.1 Bivariate statistical analysis 355
10.6.2.2 Multivariate statistical analysis 356
10.6.3 Landslide risk assessment 364
10.6.3.1 Vulnerability assessment 364
10.6.3.2 Landslide risk map 364
10.6.3.3 Verification of the prediction maps 366
10.7 SNOW AVALANCHE MODELLING 367
10.7.1 Geoinformation technologies integration into the snow and avalanche research 367
10.7.2 Physically based numerical tools for avalanche dynamics modelling 368
10.7.3 Model calibration and verification 372
10.7.4 Avalanche danger zoning 373
10.8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 375
REFERENCES 376
Chapter 11: Tectonic hazards: Earthquakes 378
11.1 PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS 378
11.2 EARTHQUAKE RISK 379
11.3 METHODS OF SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT 381
11.3.1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) 383
11.3.2 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) 384
11.4 METHODS OF SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 387
11.4.1 The macroseismic (empirical) method 387
11.4.2 The mechanical method 390
11.5 METHODS OF EARTHQUAKE PHYSICAL LOSS ESTIMATION 391
11.5.1 Macroseismic (empirical) physical loss estimation 392
11.5.2 Mechanical SDE 394
11.6 SOCIOECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION (SLE) 395
11.7 TSUNAMI RISK ESTIMATION 399
11.8 EARTHQUAKE RISK MANAGEMENT AND PREPAREDNESS 400
11.9 DISCUSSION 401
11.10 SUMMARY 404
REFERENCES 407
Chapter 12: Tectonic hazards: volcanoes 411
12.1 VOLCANIC HAZARDS 411
12.1.1 Volcano basics 412
12.1.2 Primary and secondary volcanic hazards and their impacts 413
12.1.2.1 Lava flows 413
12.1.2.2 Tephra fall 414
12.1.2.3 Pyroclastic density currents 416
12.1.2.4 Gas emissions 417
12.1.2.5 Lahars 418
12.1.2.6 Sector collapses and landslides 419
12.1.2.7 Volcanic earthquakes 419
12.1.2.8 Volcano-triggered tsunamis 420
12.2 VOLCANIC HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT 421
12.2.1 Long-term volcanic hazard assessment 421
12.2.1.1 Eruptive record and databases 422
12.2.1.2 Modelling and simulation of volcanic processes 423
12.2.1.3 Probabilistic assessment and uncertainty quantification 425
12.2.2 Short-term volcanic hazard assessment 426
12.3 EXAMPLES OF QUANTITATIVE VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT 428
12.3.1 Development of event trees 429
12.3.2 Numerical simulation of eruptive scenarios 431
12.3.3 Probabilistic mapping of hazards 434
12.3.4 Temporal probability forecasting of hazards 438
12.4 VOLCANIC RISK MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION 439
12.4.1 Actions before the eruption 439
12.4.2 Actions during and after the eruption 441
12.5 SUMMARY 442
REFERENCES 442
Chapter 13: Technological hazards 447
13.1 TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS CONCEPTS 447
13.1.1 Nature of technological hazards 447
13.1.2 Taxonomy of technological hazards 448
13.2 TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS IN LARGE-SCALE STRUCTURES 449
13.2.1 Technological risk identification in buildings 449
13.2.2 Technological risk assessment in buildings 453
13.2.3 Technological risk management in buildings 456
13.3 INDUSTRIAL AND TRANSPORTATION HAZARDS 460
13.3.1 Fukushima 460
13.3.2 Chernobyl 462
13.3.3 Exxon valdez 464
13.3.4 Transportation of hazardous materials 466
13.4 OPTIMAL OPERATIONAL RESPONSE PLANNING IN NATURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS 467
13.4.1 Simulation and management of phenomena through operational planning in a web based mapping service environment 467
13.4.2 Reducing the impact and increasing the mitigation of reaction in the above industrial accidents using operational planning tools 469
13.4.3 Natural and Industrial Hazards Assessment, Environmental Modelling and Operational Planning (NIHAEMOP) 470
13.5 SUMMARY 472
REFERENCES 472
Part 5: Epilogue 475
Chapter 14: Climate change and climate extremes 476
14.1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND MODELLING 476
14.1.1 Climate variability and change 476
14.1.2 Climate emissions scenarios 477
14.1.2.1 Special report on emissions scenarios 477
14.1.2.2 Representative concentration pathways 478
14.1.3 Modelling climate variability and change 479
14.1.3.1 Global climate models (GCMs) 479
14.1.3.2 Regional climate models 480
14.2 CLIMATE EXTREMES 483
14.3 FUTURE TRENDS IN CLIMATE EXTREMES 485
14.4 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES 489
14.4.1 Exposure and vulnerability 490
14.4.2 Major impacts of climate extremes on several sectors 491
14.5 MANAGEMENT OF CHANGING RISKS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES 495
14.5.1 Effective risk management 495
14.5.2 Risk sharing and transfer 495
14.5.3 ‘No or low regrets measures’ 496
14.5.4 Win to win adaptation actions 497
14.6 SUMMARY 499
REFERENCES 500
Chapter 15: Hazards information management and services 503
15.1 HAZARDS INFORMATION 503
15.1.1 Characteristics of information 504
15.1.2 Types and classification of information 505
15.2 EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND TYPES OF COMMUNICATION 512
15.2.1 Early warning systems and monitoring of hazards 512
15.2.2 Types of communication 517
15.3 SERVICES FOR HAZARDS INFORMATION 520
15.4 EXISTING HAZARDS INFORMATION SYSTEMS 523
15.5 SUMMARY 526
REFERENCES 527
Index 529

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