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Book Details
Abstract
This book (the research outcome of the EU-INCO FP6 research project Jayhun: Interstate Water Resource Risk Management: Towards a Sustainable Future for the AralBasin) focuses on and discusses the results of research done on the risk assessment levels associated with relevant regional variables in the Aral Basin and develops a strategy for an improved management of the region’s water resources.
The book provides current and reliable information on the rate of glacial retreat in Central Asian and the implications for future water resources in the region. The impact of global changes on annual precipitation is assessed. The rates of reservoir siltation are established by hydrographic surveys, and analyses of wastage and effectiveness of water usage in the large irrigation massifs are conducted. Water resources models are used to analyse existing and newly generated data. These are calibrated with existing data and subsequently used for simulating various possible future scenarios.
The book thereby provides a risk analysis for water resources management in the Aral Basin and identifies sustainable options for improved management of the region’s water resources.
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half Title page | 1 | ||
| Title page | 3 | ||
| Copyright page | 4 | ||
| Contents | 5 | ||
| Preface | 9 | ||
| List of Contributors | 11 | ||
| Chapter 1: A look forward to the management on the water resources of Central Asia | 13 | ||
| 1.1 WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE AMU DARYA BASIN - NEED FOR A LOOK FORWARD | 13 | ||
| 1.2 KEY POINTS OF A LOOK FORWARD | 14 | ||
| 1.2.1 Sustainable management of water resources | 16 | ||
| 1.2.2 Need for a risk management | 17 | ||
| 1.3 ELEMENTS AND STEPS TO IMPLEMENT FUTURE RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE AMUDARYA BASIN | 17 | ||
| 1.4 REFERENCES | 19 | ||
| Chapter 2: Modelling the future climate of the Amu Darya Basin | 21 | ||
| 2.1 IPCC 4TH CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT | 21 | ||
| 2.1.1 Regional Climate, Amu Darya Basin | 23 | ||
| 2.2 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR THE PLAINS PART OF AMU DARYA BASIN | 23 | ||
| 2.2.1 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) | 23 | ||
| 2.2.2 Assessment of Climate Model Performance (1961-1990) | 24 | ||
| Methodology | 24 | ||
| CRU high-resolution datasets | 24 | ||
| Selected locations in the Amu Darya Basin | 25 | ||
| Reanalysis of observed CRU high-resolution data & GCM 20C3M modelled data for the Amu Darya Basin | 25 | ||
| Downscaled future climate projections | 28 | ||
| Discussion | 33 | ||
| Data sources | 33 | ||
| 2.3 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE UPPER AMU DARYA BASIN | 34 | ||
| 2.3.1 Climate in the runoff forming zone | 34 | ||
| 2.3.2 Current climate change in mountains part of Amu Darya Basin | 35 | ||
| 2.3.3 Climate projection for mountains part of Amu Darya Basin | 35 | ||
| Downscaling of the climate projection | 37 | ||
| Decision on emission scenarios | 39 | ||
| Analysis of the seasonal air temperature and seasonal precipitation fluctuations expected by the different scenarios | 39 | ||
| Conclusions | 41 | ||
| 2.3.4 Estimation of extreme values of temperature and precipitation for climate scenarios | 42 | ||
| 2.4 REFERENCES | 44 | ||
| Chapter 3: Impact of climate change on the run-off formation zone | 45 | ||
| 3.1 GENESIS AND DYNAMICS OF THE RUNOFF | 45 | ||
| 3.2 SNOW COVER AND HYDROLOGICAL REGIME IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL ASIA | 48 | ||
| 3.2.1 Tools and method | 48 | ||
| Digital elevation model SRTM | 49 | ||
| Reanalysis climate data | 49 | ||
| Snow index given by the MODIS sensor | 50 | ||
| 3.2.2 Results and discussion | 50 | ||
| 3.3 EVALUATION THE CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACT TO THE AMU DARYA RIVER RUNOFF | 53 | ||
| 3.3.1 Changes in the river runoff based on the simulation of an artificial time series for precipitation and temperature | 55 | ||
| 3.4 REFERENCES | 60 | ||
| Chapter 4: A water mass balance for the irrigation massifs | 61 | ||
| 4.1 EXISTING WATER SUPPLY TO NATIONS, IRRIGATION SCHEMES AND THE ENVIRONMENT | 61 | ||
| 4.1.1 Review of existing data sources and data bases of official water use statistics | 61 | ||
| 4.1.2 Specification of data base structure for risk analyses | 64 | ||
| 4.1.3 Comparison of water supply and actual water use by irrigation projects | 66 | ||
| 4.2 IRD-HYDRACCESS HYDRO METEOROLOGICAL DATABASE | 67 | ||
| 4.2.1 Preliminary remarks | 67 | ||
| 4.2.2 Selected stations - Geographical coverage | 68 | ||
| 4.2.3 Sensors - Data sources | 69 | ||
| Data from Hydromet sources | 69 | ||
| Data from the GHCN database (High-Mountain areas of Central Asia) | 69 | ||
| Data from the reanalysis modelling approach from NCEP NCAR | 70 | ||
| 4.3 RIVER INFLOW PARAMETERS AT THE THC BY THE HYDROMETRICAL STATION | 70 | ||
| Chapter 5: WEAP - Modelling of Amu Darya water resources | 72 | ||
| 5.1 DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMU DARYA WEAP MODEL | 72 | ||
| 5.1.1 The principles of WEAP | 72 | ||
| Data input | 73 | ||
| Demands: irrigation | 73 | ||
| Demands: treated water | 74 | ||
| The conveyance infrastructure: transmission links and diversions | 74 | ||
| Output | 75 | ||
| 5.1.2 Model evolution | 75 | ||
| Calibration | 75 | ||
| 5.2 SCENARIO MODELLING AND RESULTS | 76 | ||
| 5.2.1 The model: AMU-WEAP_100 | 76 | ||
| Substantive differences between the models AMU-WEAP_100 and AMU-WEAP | 76 | ||
| 5.2.2 Climate change | 77 | ||
| Temperature variations across all global circulation models within the IPCC 4th assessment | 77 | ||
| 5.3 FINDINGS | 77 | ||
| 5.3.1 River discharges: the existing climate (in 1985) | 77 | ||
| 5.3.2 Evapotranspiration | 78 | ||
| 5.3.3 Abstractions | 79 | ||
| Irrigation | 79 | ||
| All demands | 80 | ||
| Demands for treated water: the existing climate (1985) | 80 | ||
| Water allocation | 80 | ||
| 5.4 IMPROVING SIMULATION | 80 | ||
| 5.4.1 What happens to the water? | 81 | ||
| 5.5 ASSESSMENT OF MODELLING | 82 | ||
| 5.6 REFERENCES | 83 | ||
| Chapter 6: Rate of sedimentation of reservoirs, reservoir life and the impact on future water resources | 85 | ||
| 6.1 SEDIMENTATION PROCESSES IN THE LARGE RESERVOIRS OF THE AMU DARYA RIVER BASIN | 85 | ||
| 6.2 NUREK DAM AND ROGUN DAM PROJECT IN THE VAKHSH RIVER | 86 | ||
| 6.2.1 Sediment dynamics in the Vakhsh river | 87 | ||
| 6.2.2 Assessment of reservoir storage losses of the Nurek Dam reservoir | 88 | ||
| Nurek-Rogun cascade | 89 | ||
| Prediction of reservoir storage capacity losses for Nurek/Rogun cascade | 89 | ||
| 6.3 THE LARGE RESERVOIRS OF THE TUYAMUYUN HYDRO-COMPLEX (THC) | 89 | ||
| 6.3.1 Sediment dynamics in the lower Amu Darya river | 90 | ||
| 6.3.2 Assessment of reservoir storage losses of the Tuyamuyun Hydro-Complex | 91 | ||
| Channel reservoir | 93 | ||
| Kaparas reservoir | 93 | ||
| 6.4 CONCLUSIONS | 95 | ||
| 6.5 REFERENCES | 95 | ||
| Chapter 7: Combined reservoir management of water and sediments for the channel reservoir at the lower Amu Darya River | 97 | ||
| 7.1 RESERVOIR SEDIMENT MANAGEMENT | 97 | ||
| 7.2 TUYAMUYUN HYDRO COMPLEX (THC) | 98 | ||
| 7.2.1 Existing operation mode of reservoirs | 99 | ||
| 7.3 ADAPTATION OF RESERVOIR OPERATION FOR THE THC RESERVOIRS | 99 | ||
| 7.3.1 Identification of reservoir operation based on hydrological scenarios | 100 | ||
| Identification of past practiced operation regimes | 100 | ||
| 7.3.2 Identification of reservoir management scenarios, using the THC-model | 101 | ||
| 7.4 EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTED RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS FOR MANAGING SEDIMENTS | 102 | ||
| 7.4.1 Sediment dynamics modelling using the 3D MOHID-Water model | 102 | ||
| 7.4.2 Simulation results for 2001 and dry year scenarios | 105 | ||
| 7.4.3 Simulation results for 2003 and median year scenarios | 105 | ||
| 7.4.4 Simulation results for 2005 and wet year scenarios | 106 | ||
| 7.5 CONCLUSIONS | 107 | ||
| 7.6 REFERENCES | 107 | ||
| Chapter 8: Natural and manmade risks to water resource security in the Amu Darya Basin | 108 | ||
| 8.1 FACTORS AFFECTING THE RISK POTENTIAL | 108 | ||
| 8.1.1 Risk and water resource management | 108 | ||
| 8.1.2 Risk posed by climate change | 109 | ||
| 8.2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECT ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE AMU DARYA BASIN | 112 | ||
| 8.2.1 Temperature and future potential evapotranspiration in the cropping season | 112 | ||
| 8.2.2 Effect of climate change on the availability of surface water resources | 112 | ||
| 8.2.3 The future of irrigation in the Amu Darya Basin | 114 | ||
| 8.3 THE ROLE OF EXISTING RESERVOIRS IN PROVIDING A RELIABLE WATER SUPPLY | 116 | ||
| 8.3.1 Fluctuations in annual precipitation and the role of reservoirs in ameliorating shortfalls in water supply | 116 | ||
| 8.3.2 The threat posed by siltation on reservoir storage and the water resource management of the basin | 116 | ||
| 8.4 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FROM IRRIGATION EXPANSION IN THE STATES OF THE UPPER AMU DARYA BASIN | 117 | ||
| 8.4.1 Irrigation development | 117 | ||
| 8.4.2 Development of hydropower capacity and irrigation | 117 | ||
| 8.5 ECONOMIC ISSUES: NATIONAL AND AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC AND COSTS IF THE RIPARIAN STATES MOVE TO A MARKET ORIENTATED ECONOMIC AND COSTS IF THE RIPARIAN STATES MOVE TO A MARKET ORIENTATED ECONOMY | 118 | ||
| 8.5.1 Pumping costs | 118 | ||
| 8.5.2 Rehabilitation and maintenance costs | 119 | ||
| 8.6 CATASTROPHIC AVALANCHE, EARTHQUAKE AND LAND SLIP IN THE UPPER BASIN | 120 | ||
| 8.7 SALINITY | 120 | ||
| 8.8 SOCIAL & POLITICAL RISK | 121 | ||
| 8.8.1 Interstate water risks and the interstate water organisations | 121 | ||
| 8.8.2 Institutional issues | 124 | ||
| 8.8.3 Institutional capacity in the water sector | 124 | ||
| 8.9 DRINKING WATER | 125 | ||
| 8.10 REFERENCES | 125 | ||
| Chapter 9: Managing risk to the water resources of the Amu Darya Basin at a time of climate change | 126 | ||
| 9.1 MANAGING RISK TO THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE AMU DARYA BASIN AT A TIME OF CLIMATE CHANGE | 126 | ||
| 9.1.1 Stop further expansion of irrigation development throughout the basin | 126 | ||
| 9.1.2 Full effective Interstate Co-operation between the riparian states of the Amu Darya basin, including Afghanistan | 127 | ||
| 9.1.3 Dealing with dry years | 127 | ||
| 9.1.4 Water use efficiency | 128 | ||
| 9.1.5 Salinity control | 129 | ||
| 9.1.6 Structural reform in the irrigation sector | 129 | ||
| 9.2 CONCLUSIONS | 130 |