BOOK
Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems
Patrick Willems | Jonas Olsson | Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen | Simon Beecham | Assela Pathirana | Ida Bulow Gregersen | Henrik Madsen | Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen
(2012)
Additional Information
Book Details
Abstract
Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics. This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage infrastructure design and management.
Authors: Patrick Willems, University of Leuven, Hydraulics division; Jonas Olsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Simon Beecham, University of South Australia, School of Natural and Built Environments; Assela Pathirana, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; Ida Bulow Gregersen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Henrik Madsen, DHI Water & Environment, Water Resources Department; Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, McGill University, Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover page | 1 | ||
| Half-title page | 2 | ||
| Title page | 3 | ||
| Copyright page | 4 | ||
| Contents | 5 | ||
| About the IGUR | 10 | ||
| About the Authors | 11 | ||
| Acknowledgements | 14 | ||
| Acronyms | 15 | ||
| Executive Summary | 18 | ||
| Chapter 1 | 20 | ||
| Introduction | 20 | ||
| 1.1 NEED FOR ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON URBAN DRAINAGE | 20 | ||
| 1.2 OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR URBAN DRAINAGE | 21 | ||
| 1.3 SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS | 24 | ||
| 1.4 BOOK OUTLINE | 24 | ||
| Chapter 2 | 26 | ||
| Modelling and analysis of rainfall extremes in a stationary context | 26 | ||
| 2.1 STOCHASTIC RAINFALL GENERATION BY POINT PROCESS THEORY | 26 | ||
| 2.2 MULTIFRACTAL AND CASCADE PROCESSES | 31 | ||
| 2.3 RAINFALL DISAGGREGATION | 33 | ||
| 2.4 STATISTICAL RAINFALL EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS | 36 | ||
| PDS/POT based analysis | 36 | ||
| Extreme value distributions | 36 | ||
| Distribution parameter estimation | 38 | ||
| Regional analysis | 40 | ||
| 2.5 IDF RELATIONSHIPS | 41 | ||
| 2.6 DESIGN STORMS | 43 | ||
| 2.7 POINT VERSUS AREAL RAINFALL | 44 | ||
| 2.8 DISCUSSION | 45 | ||
| Chapter 3 | 46 | ||
| Variability, trends and non-stationarity in extreme rainfall and runoff | 46 | ||
| 3.1 TRENDS IN RAINFALL PROCESSES AND EXTREMES | 46 | ||
| Methods | 46 | ||
| Results | 49 | ||
| 3.2 TRENDS VERSUS CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS | 57 | ||
| 3.3 TRENDS IN URBAN RUNOFF: CHANGES DUE TO CLIMATE AND URBANIZATION | 64 | ||
| 3.4 DISCUSSION | 64 | ||
| Chapter 4 | 66 | ||
| Climate models | 66 | ||
| 4.1 ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING | 66 | ||
| Weather versus climate modelling | 66 | ||
| Physical basis | 67 | ||
| Boundary conditions | 68 | ||
| Regional models | 69 | ||
| 4.2 CLIMATE FORCING SCENARIOS | 71 | ||
| 4.3 GCM SIMULATIONS | 74 | ||
| 4.4 DISCUSSION | 76 | ||
| Chapter 5 | 77 | ||
| Dynamical approach to downscaling of rainfall | 77 | ||
| 5.1 DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING | 78 | ||
| 5.2 REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS (RCMs) | 78 | ||
| RCMs in general | 78 | ||
| Precipitation computation in RCMs | 79 | ||
| Nesting in RCMs | 80 | ||
| Local data for RCM simulations | 81 | ||
| 5.3 RCM SIMULATIONS | 81 | ||
| 5.4 LIMITED AREA MODELS (LAMs) | 82 | ||
| 5.5 FINE-SCALE RAINFALL RESULTS IN CASE STUDIES | 83 | ||
| Orography and rainfall | 84 | ||
| Better results from dynamic downscaling | 84 | ||
| Urban land use change and local rainfall | 88 | ||
| 5.6 DISCUSSION | 90 | ||
| Chapter 6 | 91 | ||
| Evaluation of dynamically downscaled rainfall | 91 | ||
| 6.1 RELIABILITY OF CLIMATE SIMULATIONS BY GCMs AND RCMs | 91 | ||
| 6.2 REASON OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GCM/RCM RESULTS AND OBSERVATIONS | 97 | ||
| 6.3 UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FROM VARIOUS GCMs/RCMs AND DIFFERENT SCENARIOS | 100 | ||
| 6.4 DISCUSSION | 104 | ||
| Chapter 7 | 106 | ||
| Statistical approach to downscaling of urban rainfall extremes | 106 | ||
| 7.1 MOTIVATION FOR STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AS COMPARED TO DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING | 106 | ||
| 7.2 DELTA CHANGE AND CLIMATE FACTORS | 109 | ||
| 7.3 EMPIRICAL TRANSFER FUNCTIONS | 111 | ||
| General empirical downscaling | 111 | ||
| Separation of downscaling and bias correction steps | 113 | ||
| Quantile mapping | 115 | ||
| 7.4 RE-SAMPLING METHODS OR WEATHER TYPING | 116 | ||
| 7.5 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY-BASED OR STOCHASTIC MODELLING | 120 | ||
| 7.6 VERIFICATION OF STATISTICALLY DOWNSCALED CLIMATE MODEL RESULTS | 122 | ||
| 7.7 DISCUSSION | 125 | ||
| Chapter 8 | 127 | ||
| Future changes in rainfall extremes | 127 | ||
| 8.1 AT-SITE CHANGES IN RAINFALL EXTREMES | 127 | ||
| 8.2 REGIONAL CHANGES IN RAINFALL EXTREMES | 132 | ||
| 8.3 UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL CHANGES | 137 | ||
| 8.4 DISCUSSION | 141 | ||
| Chapter 9 | 142 | ||
| Future impacts on urban drainage | 142 | ||
| 9.1 GENERATION OF RAINFALL INPUT FOR URBAN DRAINAGE IMPACT CALCULATION | 142 | ||
| Event-based versus continuous simulation based approaches | 142 | ||
| Accounting for impact uncertainties | 145 | ||
| 9.2 IMPACTS ON URBAN DRAINAGE FLOWS, SEWER FLOODS, SURCHARGES AND OVERFLOWS | 146 | ||
| Impacts of climate change only | 146 | ||
| Impacts of climate change and/versus urbanization | 147 | ||
| 9.3 OTHER TYPES OF SEWER IMPACTS | 149 | ||
| 9.4 DISCUSSION | 153 | ||
| Chapter 10 | 155 | ||
| Climate change adaptation and flexible design | 155 | ||
| 10.1 SCOPE AND PURPOSE OF ADAPTATION | 155 | ||
| Choice of adaptation strategy | 155 | ||
| Need for adaptation within the urban drainage sector | 156 | ||
| 10.2 NEW DESIGN PHILOSOPHIES AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN URBAN DRAINAGE | 159 | ||
| Decentralized local storage to cope with the increased rainfall variability | 160 | ||
| More efficient use of available storage capacities | 163 | ||
| Limitations of retro-fitting cities with decentralized storage and/or larger sewer systems | 164 | ||
| Urban flood forecasting and warning | 165 | ||
| Water quantity-quality interaction | 165 | ||
| Interaction with receiving waters | 165 | ||
| Cross-disciplinary approach | 166 | ||
| 10.3 COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: FLEXIBLE DESIGNS | 167 | ||
| 10.4 ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT AND ACTIVE LEARNING | 168 | ||
| 10.5 DISCUSSION | 169 | ||
| Chapter 11 | 172 | ||
| Concluding remarks | 172 | ||
| 11.1 KEY MESSAGES FROM THIS BOOK | 172 | ||
| 11.2 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS | 175 | ||
| References | 176 | ||
| Appendices | 205 | ||
| Appendix A | 206 | ||
| Use of open source software R for statistical downscaling and rainfall extreme value analysis | 206 | ||
| A.1 INTRODUCTION | 206 | ||
| A.2 R PACKAGES | 206 | ||
| A.3 EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS (POT) | 207 | ||
| A.4 NON-STATIONARY GPD PARAMETER ESTIMATION (ISMEV) | 209 | ||
| Appendix B | 211 | ||
| Use of Matlab for statistical downscaling and bias correction of RCM precipitation by quantile-quantile mapping | 211 | ||
| B.1 INTRODUCTION | 211 | ||
| B.2 STEP-BY-STEP PROCEDURE | 211 | ||
| B.3 FINAL REMARKS | 213 | ||
| Appendix C | 214 | ||
| Running Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Limited Area Atmospheric Model (LAM) on PC | 214 | ||
| C.1 LEARNING OBJECTIVES | 214 | ||
| C.2 STRUCTURE OF THIS TUTORIAL | 214 | ||
| C.3 BACKGROUND | 214 | ||
| The traditional challenge in using LAMs | 214 | ||
| STRC Environmental Model System (EMS) | 215 | ||
| Yet-another WRF tutorial? | 215 | ||
| C.4 INSTALLING WRF-LIVE SYSTEM ON YOUR PC | 215 | ||
| System requirements | 215 | ||
| Install VMware player | 216 | ||
| Install and start WRF-live system | 217 | ||
| The terminal | 219 | ||
| A look around your WRF-Live system | 219 | ||
| C.5 MUMBAI CASE STUDY | 220 | ||
| Background | 220 | ||
| Setting up the domain | 220 | ||
| Initial and boundary condition | 225 | ||
| Run the simulation | 226 | ||
| Post processing the results | 227 | ||
| Plot rainfall | 227 | ||
| Finishing off | 228 | ||
| Getting files out | 230 | ||
| C.6 WHERE TO GO FROM HERE | 231 | ||
| Utilizing multiple processor cores | 231 | ||
| Do we need VMware? | 232 | ||
| Chimplot and others | 232 | ||
| More information | 233 | ||
| Index | 234 |