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Book Details
Abstract
Water resources systems provide multiple services and, if managed properly, can contribute significantly to social well-being and economic growth. However, extreme or unexpected hydroclimatic conditions, such as droughts and floods, can adversely affect or even completely interrupt these services.
This manual seeks to provide knowledge, resources and techniques for water resources professionals to manage the risks and opportunities arising from hydroclimatic variability and change. Managing Climate Risk in Water Supply Systems provides materials and tools designed to empower technical professionals to better understand the key issues in water supply systems. These materials are part of a suite of resources that are developed to share climate risk knowledge related to a range of sectors and climate-related problems. The text motivates students by providing practical exercises and it stimulates readers or workshop participants to consider options and analyses that highlight opportunities for better management in the water systems in which they are stakeholders. Managing Climate Risk in Water Supply Systems provides a hands-on approach to learning key concepts in hydrology and climate science as they relate to climate risk management in water supply systems.
The primary audience is technical professionals in water resources management and provides a practical approach to training.
Editors: Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, MA, USA and M. Neil Ward, Independent Consultant, New Jersey, USA
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover\r | Cover | ||
| Contents | v | ||
| Contributors | ix | ||
| Acknowledgements | xi | ||
| About this Manual | xiii | ||
| A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO TRAINING | xiii | ||
| Exercise 1: Sizing a reservoir and constructing yield-reliability curves using climate information | xiii | ||
| Exercise 2: Developing a statistical seasonal inflow forecast model | xiv | ||
| Exercise 3: Assessing risk for a multipurpose reservoir using a water allocation scheme and simulated inflows | xiv | ||
| Exercise 4: Integrating seasonal forecast information into reliability analysis for a multipurpose reservoir | xiv | ||
| Exercise 5: Managing risks and opportunities for a multipurpose reservoir within an institutional context | xiv | ||
| Chapter 1:\rIntroduction | 1 | ||
| INTRODUCTION | 1 | ||
| CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT | 1 | ||
| FORECASTING CLIMATE AND INFLOWS | 3 | ||
| USING CLIMATE INFORMATION TO MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES | 4 | ||
| INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF MANAGING CLIMATE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES | 5 | ||
| CONCLUDING REMARKS | 6 | ||
| REFERENCES | 7 | ||
| FURTHER READING | 7 | ||
| Chapter 2: Water resources analysis and management | 9 | ||
| INTRODUCTION | 9 | ||
| Section 1: Predicting water availability | 10 | ||
| Section 1.1: Predicting water availability for unregulated (natural) flow | 10 | ||
| Flow-duration curves | 10 | ||
| Watershed modeling | 12 | ||
| Physically-based models | 13 | ||
| Statistical modeling | 15 | ||
| Data use | 15 | ||
| Section 1.2: Predicting water availability for regulated flows in reservoirs | 16 | ||
| Modeling of storage reservoirs | 18 | ||
| Section 2: Managing availability with storage | 19 | ||
| Section 2.1: Reservoir sizing and design | 19 | ||
| Section 2.2: Reservoir operations | 22 | ||
| CONCLUDING REMARKS | 25 | ||
| REFERENCES | 25 | ||
| Chapter 3:\rClimate variability and hydrologic predictability | 27 | ||
| INTRODUCTION | 27 | ||
| Section 1: Time scales of climate variability | 27 | ||
| Section 2: Time scales and forecasts | 29 | ||
| Physical basis for seasonal predictions | 29 | ||
| Section 3: ENSO and its teleconnections | 31 | ||
| Section 4: Climate variability over longer time scales | 34 | ||
| CONCLUDING REMARKS | 38 | ||
| REFERENCES | 38 | ||
| FURTHER READING | 40 | ||
| Chapter 4:\rClimate predictability and forecasts | 41 | ||
| INTRODUCTION | 41 | ||
| Section 1: Basic hydrologic forecast models | 41 | ||
| Hydrologic persistence | 42 | ||
| Ensemble streamflow prediction | 42 | ||
| Conditional ensemble streamflow prediction | 44 | ||
| Section 2: Further climate-based approaches to seasonal hydroclimatic forecasting | 45 | ||
| Section 2.1: Statistical methods | 45 | ||
| Identifying climate predictors | 45 | ||
| Developing a statistical forecast model | 48 | ||
| Evaluation of forecast model skill | 51 | ||
| Section 2.2: Dynamical models | 55 | ||
| Prediction over longer time scales | 58 | ||
| Section 3: On-line tools and data | 60 | ||
| Section 3.1: KNMI Climate Explorer | 60 | ||
| Section 3.2: IRI Climate Predictability Tool | 62 | ||
| CONCLUDING REMARKS | 66 | ||
| REFERENCE | 66 | ||
| FURTHER READING | 67 | ||
| Chapter 5:\rClimate risk management in the water sector | 69 | ||
| INTRODUCTION | 69 | ||
| Section 1: Components of the climate risk management approach | 70 | ||
| Step 1: Assess hydroclimatic risk | 70 | ||
| What key climate-related challenges does the system currently face? | 71 | ||
| What damages occur as functions of these events? | 72 | ||
| Are there potential opportunities due to climate variability and change? | 73 | ||
| Are there opportunity losses due to decisions made to avoid current climaterisks? | 73 | ||
| Have the occurrences of hazard events over the historical record followedidentifiable patterns? | 75 | ||
| How sensitive is the system to hydroclimatic variability and change? | 75 | ||
| Step 2: Make probabilistic water supply projections incorporating climate information | 76 | ||
| Consider variability across all time scales | 77 | ||
| Consider uncertainty | 77 | ||
| Step 3: Determine a portfolio of options to manage hydroclimatic risks | 78 | ||
| Consider planning and operational approaches | 80 | ||
| Assess possible trade-offs | 80 | ||
| Consider the impact of uncertainty | 81 | ||
| Section 2: Example application of the climate risk management approach | 81 | ||
| Step 1: Assess hydroclimatic risk | 81 | ||
| What key climate-related challenges does the system currently face? | 82 | ||
| What damages occur as functions of these events? | 82 | ||
| Are there potential opportunities due to climate variability and change? | 82 | ||
| Are there opportunity losses due to decisions made to avoid shortfalls? | 82 | ||
| Have the occurrences of hazard events over the historical record followedidentifiable patterns? | 83 | ||
| How sensitive is the system to hydroclimatic variability and change? | 84 | ||
| Step 2: Make probabilistic water supply projections incorporating climate information | 92 | ||
| Step 3: Determine a portfolio of options to manage hydroclimatic risks | 94 | ||
| CONCLUDING REMARKS | 96 | ||
| REFERENCES | 96 | ||
| FURTHER READING | 97 | ||
| Chapter 6:\rTechniques for using climate information in planning and operations | 99 | ||
| INTRODUCTION | 99 | ||
| Section 1: Reservoir management | 99 | ||
| Section 1.1: Storage rule curves | 100 | ||
| Conditional storage rule curves | 101 | ||
| Section 1.2: Integrated forecast-decision support models | 105 | ||
| Section 1.3: Evaluation of outcomes from using climate-based forecasts | 109 | ||
| General results | 110 | ||
| Results by sector | 112 | ||
| Results with consideration of a long-term trend | 115 | ||
| Section 2: Other techniques for managing climate risks and opportunities in water supply systems | 123 | ||
| Section 2.1: Managing drought risks to water supply through redundancy (multiple and on-demand sources) | 123 | ||
| Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater | 123 | ||
| System connectivity and multiple scale structure | 124 | ||
| Portfolio of water sources | 124 | ||
| Section 2.2: Climate-informed water pricing | 125 | ||
| Section 2.3: Other economic mechanisms for drought risk management | 126 | ||
| Section 3: Challenges to the use of forecasts by water managers | 129 | ||
| CONCLUDING REMARKS | 130 | ||
| REFERENCES | 130 | ||
| FURTHER READING ON FORECAST USE | 133 | ||
| FURTHER READING ON ECONOMIC MECHANISMS | 134 | ||
| Appendix 1:\rPlanning and decision making | 135 | ||
| INTRODUCTION | 135 | ||
| Section 1: Economic benefit analysis | 136 | ||
| Section 2: Decision analysis | 137 | ||
| Section 3: Simulation and optimization modeling | 139 | ||
| Section 4: Multiobjective decision making | 141 | ||
| REFERENCES | 144 | ||
| Appendix 2:\rAssessing water demand | 145 | ||
| REFERENCES | 147 |