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Managing Climate Risk in Water Supply Systems

Managing Climate Risk in Water Supply Systems

Casey Brown | M. Neil Ward

(2013)

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Book Details

Abstract

Water resources systems provide multiple services and, if managed properly, can contribute significantly to social well-being and economic growth. However, extreme or unexpected hydroclimatic conditions, such as droughts and floods, can adversely affect or even completely interrupt these services.  
This manual seeks to provide knowledge, resources and techniques for water resources professionals to manage the risks and opportunities arising from hydroclimatic variability and change. Managing Climate Risk in Water Supply Systems provides materials and tools designed to empower technical professionals to better understand the key issues in water supply systems. These materials are part of a suite of resources that are developed to share climate risk knowledge related to a range of sectors and climate-related problems. The text motivates students by providing practical exercises and it stimulates readers or workshop participants to consider options and analyses that highlight opportunities for better management in the water systems in which they are stakeholders. Managing Climate Risk in Water Supply Systems provides a hands-on approach to learning key concepts in hydrology and climate science as they relate to climate risk management in water supply systems.  
The primary audience is technical professionals in water resources management and provides a practical approach to training. 
Editors: Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, MA, USA and M. Neil Ward, Independent Consultant, New Jersey, USA 

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Cover\r Cover
Contents v
Contributors ix
Acknowledgements xi
About this Manual xiii
A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO TRAINING xiii
Exercise 1: Sizing a reservoir and constructing yield-reliability curves using climate information xiii
Exercise 2: Developing a statistical seasonal inflow forecast model xiv
Exercise 3: Assessing risk for a multipurpose reservoir using a water allocation scheme and simulated inflows xiv
Exercise 4: Integrating seasonal forecast information into reliability analysis for a multipurpose reservoir xiv
Exercise 5: Managing risks and opportunities for a multipurpose reservoir within an institutional context xiv
Chapter 1:\rIntroduction 1
INTRODUCTION 1
CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 1
FORECASTING CLIMATE AND INFLOWS 3
USING CLIMATE INFORMATION TO MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 4
INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF MANAGING CLIMATE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 5
CONCLUDING REMARKS 6
REFERENCES 7
FURTHER READING 7
Chapter 2: Water resources analysis and management 9
INTRODUCTION 9
Section 1: Predicting water availability 10
Section 1.1: Predicting water availability for unregulated (natural) flow 10
Flow-duration curves 10
Watershed modeling 12
Physically-based models 13
Statistical modeling 15
Data use 15
Section 1.2: Predicting water availability for regulated flows in reservoirs 16
Modeling of storage reservoirs 18
Section 2: Managing availability with storage 19
Section 2.1: Reservoir sizing and design 19
Section 2.2: Reservoir operations 22
CONCLUDING REMARKS 25
REFERENCES 25
Chapter 3:\rClimate variability and hydrologic predictability 27
INTRODUCTION 27
Section 1: Time scales of climate variability 27
Section 2: Time scales and forecasts 29
Physical basis for seasonal predictions 29
Section 3: ENSO and its teleconnections 31
Section 4: Climate variability over longer time scales 34
CONCLUDING REMARKS 38
REFERENCES 38
FURTHER READING 40
Chapter 4:\rClimate predictability and forecasts 41
INTRODUCTION 41
Section 1: Basic hydrologic forecast models 41
Hydrologic persistence 42
Ensemble streamflow prediction 42
Conditional ensemble streamflow prediction 44
Section 2: Further climate-based approaches to seasonal hydroclimatic forecasting 45
Section 2.1: Statistical methods 45
Identifying climate predictors 45
Developing a statistical forecast model 48
Evaluation of forecast model skill 51
Section 2.2: Dynamical models 55
Prediction over longer time scales 58
Section 3: On-line tools and data 60
Section 3.1: KNMI Climate Explorer 60
Section 3.2: IRI Climate Predictability Tool 62
CONCLUDING REMARKS 66
REFERENCE 66
FURTHER READING 67
Chapter 5:\rClimate risk management in the water sector 69
INTRODUCTION 69
Section 1: Components of the climate risk management approach 70
Step 1: Assess hydroclimatic risk 70
What key climate-related challenges does the system currently face? 71
What damages occur as functions of these events? 72
Are there potential opportunities due to climate variability and change? 73
Are there opportunity losses due to decisions made to avoid current climaterisks? 73
Have the occurrences of hazard events over the historical record followedidentifiable patterns? 75
How sensitive is the system to hydroclimatic variability and change? 75
Step 2: Make probabilistic water supply projections incorporating climate information 76
Consider variability across all time scales 77
Consider uncertainty 77
Step 3: Determine a portfolio of options to manage hydroclimatic risks 78
Consider planning and operational approaches 80
Assess possible trade-offs 80
Consider the impact of uncertainty 81
Section 2: Example application of the climate risk management approach 81
Step 1: Assess hydroclimatic risk 81
What key climate-related challenges does the system currently face? 82
What damages occur as functions of these events? 82
Are there potential opportunities due to climate variability and change? 82
Are there opportunity losses due to decisions made to avoid shortfalls? 82
Have the occurrences of hazard events over the historical record followedidentifiable patterns? 83
How sensitive is the system to hydroclimatic variability and change? 84
Step 2: Make probabilistic water supply projections incorporating climate information 92
Step 3: Determine a portfolio of options to manage hydroclimatic risks 94
CONCLUDING REMARKS 96
REFERENCES 96
FURTHER READING 97
Chapter 6:\rTechniques for using climate information in planning and operations 99
INTRODUCTION 99
Section 1: Reservoir management 99
Section 1.1: Storage rule curves 100
Conditional storage rule curves 101
Section 1.2: Integrated forecast-decision support models 105
Section 1.3: Evaluation of outcomes from using climate-based forecasts 109
General results 110
Results by sector 112
Results with consideration of a long-term trend 115
Section 2: Other techniques for managing climate risks and opportunities in water supply systems 123
Section 2.1: Managing drought risks to water supply through redundancy (multiple and on-demand sources) 123
Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater 123
System connectivity and multiple scale structure 124
Portfolio of water sources 124
Section 2.2: Climate-informed water pricing 125
Section 2.3: Other economic mechanisms for drought risk management 126
Section 3: Challenges to the use of forecasts by water managers 129
CONCLUDING REMARKS 130
REFERENCES 130
FURTHER READING ON FORECAST USE 133
FURTHER READING ON ECONOMIC MECHANISMS 134
Appendix 1:\rPlanning and decision making 135
INTRODUCTION 135
Section 1: Economic benefit analysis 136
Section 2: Decision analysis 137
Section 3: Simulation and optimization modeling 139
Section 4: Multiobjective decision making 141
REFERENCES 144
Appendix 2:\rAssessing water demand 145
REFERENCES 147