Abstract

In 2050, it is predicted that 4.7bn or nearly 50% of the world's population will take an international holiday. But can humankind meet that forecast given the issues of ageing populations, peak oil, the global financial crisis and climate change? This book constructs scenarios from Shanghai to Edinburgh, Seoul to California encompassing complex topics such as human trafficking, conferences, transport, food tourism or technological innovation. This is a blue skies thinking book about the future of tourism and a thought-provoking analytical commentary.

Ian and his co-authors deserve congratulations for taking up such a stupendous and huge theme for this book. This will certainly encourage young and enthusiastic authors to look into the future of tourism more palpably and realistically than just guessing the mega trends and imagining the scenarios or building utopias.

Any attempt to predict the future is a journey into the unknown. On this adventure the reader will be continuously engaged, intrigued, exhilarated and occasionally irritated by the unexpected connections and extrapolations, but will never be jaded or bored on this breathtaking roller coaster ride into the future.

The breadth of coverage is a major strength of the book in terms of geographic settings and aspects of tourism integral to both supply and demand perspectives...The book is principally addressed to the reader as a user. It presents knowledge and scenarios about the future of tourism in 2050 that, from the outset, are intended to challenge and provoke the reader. Readers are invited to be users, form their own conclusions, and build their own scenarios...The intended audience for this book, according to the authors, is anyone interested in the future. More specifically one could say this book is recommended for anyone interested in tourism futures from an integrated supply and demand perspective, and especially those interested in using scenario planning as a method for contemplating the future of tourism.

This publication will no doubt have a broad appeal and is a refreshing change from much of the standardised academic texts that we are more familiar with. It will be of interest to anyone who is interested in ‘what will happen next’ and perhaps in attempting to answer some of the questions posed and the issues raised.

Tourism, in all its many forms, is central to the development of society. However, thinking about the future of tourism has been under researched. Drawing from the author's extensive knowledge, this book develops a multiple disciplinary focus on the future of tourism. It breaks new ground by bringing together a range of feasible concepts and ideas about the future, and presents them in the form of scenarios from the perspective of a number of destinations. I am sure in a short time this book will be required reading, not only for students, but also for those who work in tourism marketing and want to better understand their possible future markets.

Tourism professionals who want to know where their industries are headed will find volumes of eye-opening material throughout 2050—Tomorrow’s Tourism. Everyday consumers who like to travel will enjoy this book, too, as Yeoman has many insights on what tourism packages in the future may offer. Why wait to get a head start on planning for your 2050 dream vacation?

It is difficult to fault this book. It is accessibly written, persuasive, and well informed.

Dr Ian Yeoman is the world's only professional futurologist dedicated to specializing in travel and tourism. Ian learned his trade as the scenario planner for VisitScotland, where he established the process of futures thinking within the organisation using a variety of techniques including economic modelling, trends analysis and scenario construction. Today he is a leading academic researcher at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and the European Tourism Futures Institute, Netherlands. Further details on scenario planning and other future insights are posted on the author's blog: www.tomorrowstourist.com.