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Water Diplomacy in Action

Water Diplomacy in Action

Shafiqul Islam | Kaveh Madani


Additional Information


Complex water problems cannot be resolved by numbers or narratives. Contingent and negotiated approaches are necessary for actionable outcome. In the face of a constantly changing array of interconnected water issues that cross multiple boundaries, the challenge is how to translate solutions that emerge from science and technology into the context of real-world policy and politics. Water Diplomacy in Action addresses this task by synthesizing two emerging ideas––complexity science and negotiation theory––to understand and manage risks and opportunities for an uncertain water future. Rooted in the ideas of complexity science and mutual gains negotiation, this edited volume shows why traditional systems engineering approaches may not work for complex problems, what emerging tools and techniques are needed and how these are used to resolve complex water problems. 

Shafiqul Islam is a professor of civil and environmental engineering and professor of water diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He is the director of the Water Diplomacy Program and the 2016 recipient of the Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Water Prize for Creativity.

Kaveh Madani is a reader in systems analysis and policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy of the Imperial College London. He is one of the four recipients of the Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists in 2016 for his fundamental contributions to integrating game-theory and decision-analysis into water management models.

“The book is an excellent contribution to the literature on how formal and informal institutions and engagement of stakeholders continue being the best ways to address the complexity of water resources.”
Cecilia Tortajada, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore 

“This volume amplifies the fact that water is an interdisciplinary resource and analyzes the complex array of interconnected water issues that cross multiple boundaries. It diagnoses water problems, identifies intervention points and proposes some sustainable solutions that blend science, law, policy and politics. It is a major contribution to the field of water diplomacy.”
Salman M. A. Salman, former World Bank Adviser on Water Law and Editor-in-Chief, International Water Law

“Water Diplomacy in Action provides a comprehensive view on complex water problems, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches and combining these with real-life case studies.”
Erik Mostert, Assistant Professor, Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands 

Today we face an incredibly complex array of interconnected water issues that cross multiple boundaries: Is water a property or a human right? How do we prioritize between economic utility and environmental sustainability? Do fish have more rights to water than irrigated grain? Can we reconcile competing cultural and religious values associated with water? How much water do people actually need? These questions share two key defining characteristics: (a) competing values, interests and information to frame the problem; and (b) differing views - of how to resolve a problem - are related more to uncertainty and ambiguity of perception than accuracy of scientific information.

These problems - known as complex problems - are ill-defined, ambiguous, and often associated with strong moral, political and professional values and issues. For complex water problems, certainty of solutions and degree of consensus varies widely. In fact, there is often little consensus about what the problem is, let alone how to resolve it. Furthermore, complex problems are constantly changing because of interactions among the natural, societal and political forces involved. The nature of complexity is contingent on a variety of contextual characteristics of the interactions among variables, processes, actors, and institutions. Understanding interactions and feedback loops between and within human and natural systems is critical for managing complex water problems. [NP] This edited volume synthesizes insights from theory and practice to address complex water problems through contingent and adaptive management using water diplomacy framework (WDF). This emerging framework diagnoses water problems, identifies intervention points, and proposes sustainable solutions that are sensitive to diverse viewpoints and uncertainty as well as changing and competing needs. The WDF actively seeks value-creation opportunities by blending science, policy, and politics through a contingent negotiated approach.

“Opening up avenues for nonviolent resolution of water-related disputes and conflicts, this book shows how diverse knowledge bases can be used for putting that very useful goal in real-world actions.”
Jayanta Bandyopadhyay, Visiting Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, India  

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Cover Cover 1
Front Matter i
Half-title i
Series information ii
Title page iii
Copyright information iv
Table of contents v
List of figures vii
List of tables xi
The Blind Men, the Elephant and the Well: A Parable for Complexity and Contingency xiii
Preface xvii
Part I Roots And Causes Of Complexity And Contingency In Water Problems 1
Chapter (1-2) 19
Chapter One Complexity and Contingency: Understanding and Managing Complex Water Problems 19
Abstract 3
Introduction 3
Understanding Complexity 4
From Clock to Confusion: Origin of Complexity 4
Complexity Science: Foundational Ideas and Concepts 6
Complicated and Complex Systems 7
Different Faces of Complexity Science 7
Diagnosis of Sources of Complexity 8
Systems Engineering and Complex Systems 10
Understanding the Complexity of Water 11
Water: Object or a Resource? 11
Water as an Object 11
Water as a Resource 12
Sources of Complexity in Water: Interactions of Knowledge and Political Communities 12
Complexity Introduced through Growth in Know- How in the Knowledge Community 13
Complexity Introduced through Competing Values and Interests in the Political Community 14
Managing Complexity of Water Resources 14
Complexity Creates Contingency 14
Contingent Management of Water Resources: Search for Actionable Space 15
Acknowledgments 17
Note 17
References 17
Chapter Two Leveraging Diplomacy For Resolving Transboundary Water Problems 19
Abstract 19
Introduction 19
Transboundary Waters: Conflict and Peace 20
Transboundary Water and Hydro-Diplomacy 22
International Community and Transboundary Water Management 24
Need for a Strategic Approach 27
Building Capacity 28
Conclusion 31
Note 32
References 32
Part II Tools, Techniques, Models And Analyses To Resolve Complex Water Problems 35
Chapter (3-9) 37
Chapter Three Ten Bankruptcy Methods for Resolving Natural Resource Allocation Conflicts 37
Abstract 37
Introduction 37
Bankruptcy Solution Methods 39
Proportional (P) 39
Adjusted Proportional (AP) 39
Constrained Equal Award (CEA) 40
Constrained Equal Loss (CEL) 40
Talmud (Tal) 40
Piniles’ (Pin) 41
Constrained Egalitarian (CE) 41
Random Arrival (RA) 42
Minimal Overlap (MO) 42
Generalized IBN Ezra (GIE) 43
Caspian Sea 43
Results 45
Stability Analysis 46
Conclusion 48
Acknowledgments 48
References 48
Chapter Four Flexible Design Of Water Infrastructure Systems 51
Abstract 51
Introduction 51
Recognizing Uncertainty in Planning 52
Conventional Approaches to Water Resources Planning 53
Decision Analysis and Scenario Planning 54
Adaptive Management 56
Flexible Design 57
Real Options Analysis 58
Sources of Flexibility in Design 59
Drivers of Value 60
Limitations 61
Flexibility Analysis 62
Example Applications 62
Flexibility Analysis Method 63
Detailed Case Study 64
Background 64
System Data 65
Investment Costs 65
Discussion 69
Conclusion 69
References 70
Chapter Five Extreme Value Analysis for Modeling Nonstationary Hydrologic Change 75
Abstract 75
Introduction 75
Background on Extreme Value Theory for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis 77
Extreme Value Models under Nonstationarity 80
Parameter Estimation 81
Estimation of Design Quantiles 82
Uncertainty in Estimation of Design Quantiles 85
Alternate Approaches for Risk Communication 86
An Example Application 88
Discussion 91
Acknowledgments 92
References 92
Chapter Six The Water–Food Nexus And Virtual Water Trade 95
Introduction 95
Water and Food Crisis 96
Virtual Water Trade 98
Drivers of Virtual Water Trade 101
Methods for Network Reconstruction 103
Limitations and Issues 104
Trade, Inequality and the Right to Water 104
Virtues and Vices of Virtual Water Trade 106
References 107
Chapter Seven A Hybrid Analytical Approach For Modeling The Dynamics Of Interactions For Complex Water Problems 111
Context and Motivation 112
Knowledge Gaps and Research Questions 113
A Hybrid Network Model for a Coupled Natural and Societal System 114
Accounting for Subjectivity and Non-linearity in a System’s Agent Behavior 118
Negotiating Transboundary Water Issues: Application of the Network Model 120
Assumptions Related to the Network Model 122
Analysis and Findings 122
Performance Indicators 123
Average Annual Growth Rate (AVR) 123
Overall System Performance (OSP) 123
Synergistic Response Per Agent (SPI) 123
Competitive Response Per Agent (CPI) 124
Equity in Benefit Sharing (EBS) 124
Dynamics of Interactions among Agents 124
Scenario Analyses and Findings 125
Analysis of Optimal System Connectivity 125
Emergence of Structural Attractors and the System Self-Organization Property 134
Sensitivity analysis of agent behavior and associated system response 134
Sensitivity of System Competition and Resource Parameters 137
Acknowledgments 139
References 139
Chapter Eight A Call for Capacity Development for Improved Water Diplomacy 141
Introduction 141
Water Diplomacy 143
Capacity Development 143
Columbia River Treaty Review Transboundary Dialogue: A Case Study in Capacity Development for Water Diplomacy 144
Capacity Development for Improved Water Diplomacy 147
Individual Capacities 147
Individual Capacity Development Training in Water Conflict Management 147
Institutional Capacities 148
Institutional Capacity Development in Facilitation and Mediation 149
Society’s Capacities–Public Participation 149
The Four Worlds of Conflict Transformation Applied to Capacity Development 150
Conclusions and Recommendations 151
Notes 152
References 153
Chapter Nine Water Complexity And Physics-Guided Data Mining 155
Abstract 155
The Grand Water Challenge 156
Climate Stress on Water Systems 157
Water as a Data Challenge 158
Physics-Guided Data Mining 162
Premise of Physics-Guided Data Mining 162
Case Studies 165
Case Study I: Statistical Downscaling 165
Case Study II: Uncertainty Quantification 168
Case Study III: Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change 172
Caveats and Future Work 173
Acknowledgments 174
References 174
Part III Case Studies 179
Chapter (10-15) 181
Chapter Ten The Nature of Enabling Conditions of Transboundary Water Management: Learning From the Negotiation ... 181
Abstract 181
Introduction: The Complexity of Transboundary Water Management 181
The Contingency of Cooperation under Complexity 184
Negotiation of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan 188
Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders 188
Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through Joint Fact-Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits 189
Enabling Condition III: Monitor Agreements through a Joint Authority and Build Up Its Capacity to ... 191
Negotiation of the Peace Treaty between Israel and Jordan 192
Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders 193
Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through Joint Fact-Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits 194
Enabling Condition III: Monitoring Agreements through a Joint Authority and Building Their Capacity to ... 196
Conclusion 197
References 199
Chapter Eleven Mediation In The Israeli–Palestinian Water Conflict: A Practitioner’S View 203
Abstract 203
Introduction 203
Adaptive Water Management and Water Mediation 204
Methodology 207
Case Study 1. NGO-Based Integrated and Transboundary Master Plan for the Lower Jordan River Basin 207
Case Study 2. Water Annex of the Geneva Accord 207
A Framework for Analyzing Different Levels of Policy Learning 208
Analysis 209
Stakeholder Assessment and Engagement 210
GI Water Annex: Stakeholder Engagement 210
Master Plan LJRBL: Stakeholder Engagement 211
Joint Fact-Finding 213
GI Water Annex: Joint Fact-Finding 214
Master Plan LJRB: Joint Fact-Finding 214
Facilitating Multiparty Problem-Solving 215
GI Water Annex: Multiparty Problem-Solving 215
Master Plan LJRB: Multiparty Problem-Solving 216
Developing Forms of Agreement That Take Adaptive Management into Account 217
GI Water Annex: Forms of Agreement 218
Master Plan LJRB: Forms of Agreement 219
Assessment of Policy Learning 220
Discussion: From Zero-Sum to Mutual Gains 221
Policy Learning 222
Building Trust 222
Multilevel Governance 223
Conclusion 223
References 224
Chapter Twelve Risk Distribution and the Adoption of Flexibility: Desalination Expansion in Qatar 229
Abstract 229
Introduction 229
Public–Private Partnerships and Their Risks 232
Case Study: Desalination in Qatar 233
Background 234
Uncertainties 235
Flexibility Analysis 236
Model Details 236
Inflexible Design Base Case 237
Uncertainty Consideration 238
Flexible Designs 238
Waterfall Analysis and Results 241
Risk Analysis and Results for Risk-Neutral Participants 243
Risk Analysis and Results for Risk-Averse Participants 245
Reflections on Case Study 246
Conclusions 248
References 249
Chapter 13 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Conflict and Water Diplomacy in the Nile Basin 253
Abstract 253
Introduction 253
Nile Basin Water in Perspective 255
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) 257
Approaches to Analyzing and Synthesizing GERD 258
Efficient Use of Nile Water 259
Summary and Discussion 261
References 261
Chapter Fourteen Engaging Stakeholders for Water Diplomacy: Lessons For Integrated Water Resources Management 265
Abstract 266
Introduction 266
Engagement for Water Diplomacy and Its Expectations 266
Concepts Leading to Practice: Frameworks and Models 271
Continuum of Engagement Levels 271
Stakeholder Analysis and Salience 273
Frameworks and Models on Specific Features 275
Responsible Treatment of Stakeholders 275
Sample Surveys versus Action Conversations 275
Engagement for Adaptive and Integrated Management 275
Impact of Trust on Participation Strategy 275
Techniques and Modelling Tools in Engagement 276
Techniques for Engaging Stakeholders 276
Lower-Level Involvement Techniques 276
Higher-Level Involvement Techniques 276
Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) Techniques 276
Action Research Method 277
Modelling Tools for Engaging Stakeholders 277
System Analysis 278
Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) 278
Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Models 279
Bayesian Belief Network (BN) 279
Binary Probit Analysis 279
Lessons from the Stakeholder Engagement Process 280
What Can We Do to Achieve Effective Stakeholder Engagement? 282
Conclusion 284
Chapter Fifteen Strategic Insights For California’S Delta Conflict 289
Abstract 289
Introduction 289
California’s Delta Crisis 291
Degrading Levees 291
Delta Salinity and Deteriorating Water Quality 292
Delta Ecosystem Degradation 292
Water Resources Availability and Management 292
Method: Graph Model for Conflict Resolution 293
Delta Conflict Model 296
Major Players 296
Water Exporters 296
Environmentalists 297
Upstream and In-Delta Water Users 297
The State of California 298
The Players’ Options 298
Water Exporters 298
Environmentalists 299
Water Users 299
California 300
Preparing Input Information for GMCR II 301
Generation and Elimination Scenario 301
Specifying DM Preferences 301
Stability Analysis 304
Conclusion 307
References 307
End Matter 311
Contributors 311
Index 315