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Book Details
Abstract
Complex water problems cannot be resolved by numbers or narratives. Contingent and negotiated approaches are necessary for actionable outcome. In the face of a constantly changing array of interconnected water issues that cross multiple boundaries, the challenge is how to translate solutions that emerge from science and technology into the context of real-world policy and politics. Water Diplomacy in Action addresses this task by synthesizing two emerging ideas––complexity science and negotiation theory––to understand and manage risks and opportunities for an uncertain water future. Rooted in the ideas of complexity science and mutual gains negotiation, this edited volume shows why traditional systems engineering approaches may not work for complex problems, what emerging tools and techniques are needed and how these are used to resolve complex water problems.
Shafiqul Islam is a professor of civil and environmental engineering and professor of water diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He is the director of the Water Diplomacy Program and the 2016 recipient of the Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Water Prize for Creativity.
Kaveh Madani is a reader in systems analysis and policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy of the Imperial College London. He is one of the four recipients of the Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists in 2016 for his fundamental contributions to integrating game-theory and decision-analysis into water management models.
“The book is an excellent contribution to the literature on how formal and informal institutions and engagement of stakeholders continue being the best ways to address the complexity of water resources.”
—Cecilia Tortajada, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
“This volume amplifies the fact that water is an interdisciplinary resource and analyzes the complex array of interconnected water issues that cross multiple boundaries. It diagnoses water problems, identifies intervention points and proposes some sustainable solutions that blend science, law, policy and politics. It is a major contribution to the field of water diplomacy.”
—Salman M. A. Salman, former World Bank Adviser on Water Law and Editor-in-Chief, International Water Law
“Water Diplomacy in Action provides a comprehensive view on complex water problems, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches and combining these with real-life case studies.”
—Erik Mostert, Assistant Professor, Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
Today we face an incredibly complex array of interconnected water issues that cross multiple boundaries: Is water a property or a human right? How do we prioritize between economic utility and environmental sustainability? Do fish have more rights to water than irrigated grain? Can we reconcile competing cultural and religious values associated with water? How much water do people actually need? These questions share two key defining characteristics: (a) competing values, interests and information to frame the problem; and (b) differing views - of how to resolve a problem - are related more to uncertainty and ambiguity of perception than accuracy of scientific information.
These problems - known as complex problems - are ill-defined, ambiguous, and often associated with strong moral, political and professional values and issues. For complex water problems, certainty of solutions and degree of consensus varies widely. In fact, there is often little consensus about what the problem is, let alone how to resolve it. Furthermore, complex problems are constantly changing because of interactions among the natural, societal and political forces involved. The nature of complexity is contingent on a variety of contextual characteristics of the interactions among variables, processes, actors, and institutions. Understanding interactions and feedback loops between and within human and natural systems is critical for managing complex water problems. [NP] This edited volume synthesizes insights from theory and practice to address complex water problems through contingent and adaptive management using water diplomacy framework (WDF). This emerging framework diagnoses water problems, identifies intervention points, and proposes sustainable solutions that are sensitive to diverse viewpoints and uncertainty as well as changing and competing needs. The WDF actively seeks value-creation opportunities by blending science, policy, and politics through a contingent negotiated approach.
“Opening up avenues for nonviolent resolution of water-related disputes and conflicts, this book shows how diverse knowledge bases can be used for putting that very useful goal in real-world actions.”
—Jayanta Bandyopadhyay, Visiting Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, India
Table of Contents
Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
---|---|---|---|
Cover | Cover 1 | ||
Front Matter | i | ||
Half-title | i | ||
Series information | ii | ||
Title page | iii | ||
Copyright information | iv | ||
Table of contents | v | ||
List of figures | vii | ||
List of tables | xi | ||
The Blind Men, the Elephant and the Well: A Parable for Complexity and Contingency | xiii | ||
Preface | xvii | ||
Part I Roots And Causes Of Complexity And Contingency In Water Problems | 1 | ||
Chapter (1-2) | 19 | ||
Chapter One Complexity and Contingency: Understanding and Managing Complex Water Problems | 19 | ||
Abstract | 3 | ||
Introduction | 3 | ||
Understanding Complexity | 4 | ||
From Clock to Confusion: Origin of Complexity | 4 | ||
Complexity Science: Foundational Ideas and Concepts | 6 | ||
Complicated and Complex Systems | 7 | ||
Different Faces of Complexity Science | 7 | ||
Diagnosis of Sources of Complexity | 8 | ||
Systems Engineering and Complex Systems | 10 | ||
Understanding the Complexity of Water | 11 | ||
Water: Object or a Resource? | 11 | ||
Water as an Object | 11 | ||
Water as a Resource | 12 | ||
Sources of Complexity in Water: Interactions of Knowledge and Political Communities | 12 | ||
Complexity Introduced through Growth in Know- How in the Knowledge Community | 13 | ||
Complexity Introduced through Competing Values and Interests in the Political Community | 14 | ||
Managing Complexity of Water Resources | 14 | ||
Complexity Creates Contingency | 14 | ||
Contingent Management of Water Resources: Search for Actionable Space | 15 | ||
Acknowledgments | 17 | ||
Note | 17 | ||
References | 17 | ||
Chapter Two Leveraging Diplomacy For Resolving Transboundary Water Problems | 19 | ||
Abstract | 19 | ||
Introduction | 19 | ||
Transboundary Waters: Conflict and Peace | 20 | ||
Transboundary Water and Hydro-Diplomacy | 22 | ||
International Community and Transboundary Water Management | 24 | ||
Need for a Strategic Approach | 27 | ||
Building Capacity | 28 | ||
Conclusion | 31 | ||
Note | 32 | ||
References | 32 | ||
Part II Tools, Techniques, Models And Analyses To Resolve Complex Water Problems | 35 | ||
Chapter (3-9) | 37 | ||
Chapter Three Ten Bankruptcy Methods for Resolving Natural Resource Allocation Conflicts | 37 | ||
Abstract | 37 | ||
Introduction | 37 | ||
Bankruptcy Solution Methods | 39 | ||
Proportional (P) | 39 | ||
Adjusted Proportional (AP) | 39 | ||
Constrained Equal Award (CEA) | 40 | ||
Constrained Equal Loss (CEL) | 40 | ||
Talmud (Tal) | 40 | ||
Piniles’ (Pin) | 41 | ||
Constrained Egalitarian (CE) | 41 | ||
Random Arrival (RA) | 42 | ||
Minimal Overlap (MO) | 42 | ||
Generalized IBN Ezra (GIE) | 43 | ||
Caspian Sea | 43 | ||
Results | 45 | ||
Stability Analysis | 46 | ||
Conclusion | 48 | ||
Acknowledgments | 48 | ||
References | 48 | ||
Chapter Four Flexible Design Of Water Infrastructure Systems | 51 | ||
Abstract | 51 | ||
Introduction | 51 | ||
Recognizing Uncertainty in Planning | 52 | ||
Conventional Approaches to Water Resources Planning | 53 | ||
Decision Analysis and Scenario Planning | 54 | ||
Adaptive Management | 56 | ||
Flexible Design | 57 | ||
Real Options Analysis | 58 | ||
Sources of Flexibility in Design | 59 | ||
Drivers of Value | 60 | ||
Limitations | 61 | ||
Flexibility Analysis | 62 | ||
Example Applications | 62 | ||
Flexibility Analysis Method | 63 | ||
Detailed Case Study | 64 | ||
Background | 64 | ||
System Data | 65 | ||
Investment Costs | 65 | ||
Discussion | 69 | ||
Conclusion | 69 | ||
References | 70 | ||
Chapter Five Extreme Value Analysis for Modeling Nonstationary Hydrologic Change | 75 | ||
Abstract | 75 | ||
Introduction | 75 | ||
Background on Extreme Value Theory for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis | 77 | ||
Extreme Value Models under Nonstationarity | 80 | ||
Parameter Estimation | 81 | ||
Estimation of Design Quantiles | 82 | ||
Uncertainty in Estimation of Design Quantiles | 85 | ||
Alternate Approaches for Risk Communication | 86 | ||
An Example Application | 88 | ||
Discussion | 91 | ||
Acknowledgments | 92 | ||
References | 92 | ||
Chapter Six The Water–Food Nexus And Virtual Water Trade | 95 | ||
Introduction | 95 | ||
Water and Food Crisis | 96 | ||
Virtual Water Trade | 98 | ||
Drivers of Virtual Water Trade | 101 | ||
Methods for Network Reconstruction | 103 | ||
Limitations and Issues | 104 | ||
Trade, Inequality and the Right to Water | 104 | ||
Virtues and Vices of Virtual Water Trade | 106 | ||
References | 107 | ||
Chapter Seven A Hybrid Analytical Approach For Modeling The Dynamics Of Interactions For Complex Water Problems | 111 | ||
Context and Motivation | 112 | ||
Knowledge Gaps and Research Questions | 113 | ||
A Hybrid Network Model for a Coupled Natural and Societal System | 114 | ||
Accounting for Subjectivity and Non-linearity in a System’s Agent Behavior | 118 | ||
Negotiating Transboundary Water Issues: Application of the Network Model | 120 | ||
Assumptions Related to the Network Model | 122 | ||
Analysis and Findings | 122 | ||
Performance Indicators | 123 | ||
Average Annual Growth Rate (AVR) | 123 | ||
Overall System Performance (OSP) | 123 | ||
Synergistic Response Per Agent (SPI) | 123 | ||
Competitive Response Per Agent (CPI) | 124 | ||
Equity in Benefit Sharing (EBS) | 124 | ||
Dynamics of Interactions among Agents | 124 | ||
Scenario Analyses and Findings | 125 | ||
Analysis of Optimal System Connectivity | 125 | ||
Emergence of Structural Attractors and the System Self-Organization Property | 134 | ||
Sensitivity analysis of agent behavior and associated system response | 134 | ||
Sensitivity of System Competition and Resource Parameters | 137 | ||
Acknowledgments | 139 | ||
References | 139 | ||
Chapter Eight A Call for Capacity Development for Improved Water Diplomacy | 141 | ||
Introduction | 141 | ||
Water Diplomacy | 143 | ||
Capacity Development | 143 | ||
Columbia River Treaty Review Transboundary Dialogue: A Case Study in Capacity Development for Water Diplomacy | 144 | ||
Capacity Development for Improved Water Diplomacy | 147 | ||
Individual Capacities | 147 | ||
Individual Capacity Development Training in Water Conflict Management | 147 | ||
Institutional Capacities | 148 | ||
Institutional Capacity Development in Facilitation and Mediation | 149 | ||
Society’s Capacities–Public Participation | 149 | ||
The Four Worlds of Conflict Transformation Applied to Capacity Development | 150 | ||
Conclusions and Recommendations | 151 | ||
Notes | 152 | ||
References | 153 | ||
Chapter Nine Water Complexity And Physics-Guided Data Mining | 155 | ||
Abstract | 155 | ||
The Grand Water Challenge | 156 | ||
Climate Stress on Water Systems | 157 | ||
Water as a Data Challenge | 158 | ||
Physics-Guided Data Mining | 162 | ||
Premise of Physics-Guided Data Mining | 162 | ||
Case Studies | 165 | ||
Case Study I: Statistical Downscaling | 165 | ||
Case Study II: Uncertainty Quantification | 168 | ||
Case Study III: Role of Internal Variability in Climate Change | 172 | ||
Caveats and Future Work | 173 | ||
Acknowledgments | 174 | ||
References | 174 | ||
Part III Case Studies | 179 | ||
Chapter (10-15) | 181 | ||
Chapter Ten The Nature of Enabling Conditions of Transboundary Water Management: Learning From the Negotiation ... | 181 | ||
Abstract | 181 | ||
Introduction: The Complexity of Transboundary Water Management | 181 | ||
The Contingency of Cooperation under Complexity | 184 | ||
Negotiation of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan | 188 | ||
Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders | 188 | ||
Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through Joint Fact-Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits | 189 | ||
Enabling Condition III: Monitor Agreements through a Joint Authority and Build Up Its Capacity to ... | 191 | ||
Negotiation of the Peace Treaty between Israel and Jordan | 192 | ||
Enabling Condition I: Active Recognition of Interdependence among Contending Stakeholders | 193 | ||
Enabling Condition II: Framing Mutual Interests through Joint Fact-Finding and Creating Mutual Benefits | 194 | ||
Enabling Condition III: Monitoring Agreements through a Joint Authority and Building Their Capacity to ... | 196 | ||
Conclusion | 197 | ||
References | 199 | ||
Chapter Eleven Mediation In The Israeli–Palestinian Water Conflict: A Practitioner’S View | 203 | ||
Abstract | 203 | ||
Introduction | 203 | ||
Adaptive Water Management and Water Mediation | 204 | ||
Methodology | 207 | ||
Case Study 1. NGO-Based Integrated and Transboundary Master Plan for the Lower Jordan River Basin | 207 | ||
Case Study 2. Water Annex of the Geneva Accord | 207 | ||
A Framework for Analyzing Different Levels of Policy Learning | 208 | ||
Analysis | 209 | ||
Stakeholder Assessment and Engagement | 210 | ||
GI Water Annex: Stakeholder Engagement | 210 | ||
Master Plan LJRBL: Stakeholder Engagement | 211 | ||
Joint Fact-Finding | 213 | ||
GI Water Annex: Joint Fact-Finding | 214 | ||
Master Plan LJRB: Joint Fact-Finding | 214 | ||
Facilitating Multiparty Problem-Solving | 215 | ||
GI Water Annex: Multiparty Problem-Solving | 215 | ||
Master Plan LJRB: Multiparty Problem-Solving | 216 | ||
Developing Forms of Agreement That Take Adaptive Management into Account | 217 | ||
GI Water Annex: Forms of Agreement | 218 | ||
Master Plan LJRB: Forms of Agreement | 219 | ||
Assessment of Policy Learning | 220 | ||
Discussion: From Zero-Sum to Mutual Gains | 221 | ||
Policy Learning | 222 | ||
Building Trust | 222 | ||
Multilevel Governance | 223 | ||
Conclusion | 223 | ||
References | 224 | ||
Chapter Twelve Risk Distribution and the Adoption of Flexibility: Desalination Expansion in Qatar | 229 | ||
Abstract | 229 | ||
Introduction | 229 | ||
Public–Private Partnerships and Their Risks | 232 | ||
Case Study: Desalination in Qatar | 233 | ||
Background | 234 | ||
Uncertainties | 235 | ||
Flexibility Analysis | 236 | ||
Model Details | 236 | ||
Inflexible Design Base Case | 237 | ||
Uncertainty Consideration | 238 | ||
Flexible Designs | 238 | ||
Waterfall Analysis and Results | 241 | ||
Risk Analysis and Results for Risk-Neutral Participants | 243 | ||
Risk Analysis and Results for Risk-Averse Participants | 245 | ||
Reflections on Case Study | 246 | ||
Conclusions | 248 | ||
References | 249 | ||
Chapter 13 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Conflict and Water Diplomacy in the Nile Basin | 253 | ||
Abstract | 253 | ||
Introduction | 253 | ||
Nile Basin Water in Perspective | 255 | ||
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) | 257 | ||
Approaches to Analyzing and Synthesizing GERD | 258 | ||
Efficient Use of Nile Water | 259 | ||
Summary and Discussion | 261 | ||
References | 261 | ||
Chapter Fourteen Engaging Stakeholders for Water Diplomacy: Lessons For Integrated Water Resources Management | 265 | ||
Abstract | 266 | ||
Introduction | 266 | ||
Engagement for Water Diplomacy and Its Expectations | 266 | ||
Concepts Leading to Practice: Frameworks and Models | 271 | ||
Continuum of Engagement Levels | 271 | ||
Stakeholder Analysis and Salience | 273 | ||
Frameworks and Models on Specific Features | 275 | ||
Responsible Treatment of Stakeholders | 275 | ||
Sample Surveys versus Action Conversations | 275 | ||
Engagement for Adaptive and Integrated Management | 275 | ||
Impact of Trust on Participation Strategy | 275 | ||
Techniques and Modelling Tools in Engagement | 276 | ||
Techniques for Engaging Stakeholders | 276 | ||
Lower-Level Involvement Techniques | 276 | ||
Higher-Level Involvement Techniques | 276 | ||
Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) Techniques | 276 | ||
Action Research Method | 277 | ||
Modelling Tools for Engaging Stakeholders | 277 | ||
System Analysis | 278 | ||
Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) | 278 | ||
Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Models | 279 | ||
Bayesian Belief Network (BN) | 279 | ||
Binary Probit Analysis | 279 | ||
Lessons from the Stakeholder Engagement Process | 280 | ||
What Can We Do to Achieve Effective Stakeholder Engagement? | 282 | ||
Conclusion | 284 | ||
Chapter Fifteen Strategic Insights For California’S Delta Conflict | 289 | ||
Abstract | 289 | ||
Introduction | 289 | ||
California’s Delta Crisis | 291 | ||
Degrading Levees | 291 | ||
Delta Salinity and Deteriorating Water Quality | 292 | ||
Delta Ecosystem Degradation | 292 | ||
Water Resources Availability and Management | 292 | ||
Method: Graph Model for Conflict Resolution | 293 | ||
Delta Conflict Model | 296 | ||
Major Players | 296 | ||
Water Exporters | 296 | ||
Environmentalists | 297 | ||
Upstream and In-Delta Water Users | 297 | ||
The State of California | 298 | ||
The Players’ Options | 298 | ||
Water Exporters | 298 | ||
Environmentalists | 299 | ||
Water Users | 299 | ||
California | 300 | ||
Preparing Input Information for GMCR II | 301 | ||
Generation and Elimination Scenario | 301 | ||
Specifying DM Preferences | 301 | ||
Stability Analysis | 304 | ||
Conclusion | 307 | ||
References | 307 | ||
End Matter | 311 | ||
Contributors | 311 | ||
Index | 315 |