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Asia-Africa Development Divergence

Asia-Africa Development Divergence

David Henley

(2015)

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Abstract

Why have South-East Asian countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam been so successful in reducing levels of absolute poverty, while in African countries like Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania, despite recent economic growth, most people are still almost as poor as they were half a century ago? This book presents a simple, radical explanation for the great divergence in development performance between Asia and Africa: the absence in most parts of Africa, and the presence in Asia, of serious developmental intent on the part of national political leaders.
'This book addresses one of the top global issues of our time. It does so eloquently, with impeccable logic and drawing on a rich body of comparative evidence spanning sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. It deserves to be carefully read and widely discussed, especially by those shaping policies for the coming decades in Africa.' David Booth, Overseas Development Institute, co-author of Governance for Development in Africa 'David Henley has written a brilliant synthesis of why countries in South-East Asia have become much more prosperous over the last half century, whereas countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not. Henley's analysis of the rich material offers a new, intriguing interpretation of one of the most pressing issues in the world of development. From the first page to the last, Asia-Africa Development Divergence provides fascinating reading.' Roel van der Veen, University of Amsterdam, and author of What Went Wrong With Africa. 'This book brings readers back to where the development debate started in the 1950s: what developmental role can a state play, with adequate policies and dedicated implementation practices, and what will be needed to make state elites play that role? Would this be possible in current-day "emerging Africa"? Although the answers given may not convince everyone, they do bring the debate a step further.' Ton Dietz, Professor of African Development and Director of the African Studies Centre, Leiden 'The comparative paths of development in South-East Asia and Africa raise important questions about the necessary conditions for economic transformation. David Henley offers a thoughtful and balanced explanation for the divergence between these two regions, focusing on strategic choices by leaders and pragmatic politics in implementation. This book will have wide resonance for those interested in the fortunes of these regions and the broad theoretical understanding of development.' Peter Lewis, Director of the African Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University ‘Henley makes an undeniably compelling case with his congruent and rational argument for the primacy of rural and pro-poor development, its precedence over industrialization, and ultimately, its instrumentalism in sustaining economic growth in Southeast Asia … an accessible read for a wide audience ranging from students of development studies to industry practitioners.’ Journal of Southeast Asian Economies 'This is an insightful book comparing the development trajectories of Indonesia and Nigeria, Malaysia and Kenya, and Vietnam and Tanzania … a solid, pragmatic, readable piece of work.' Population and Development Review
David Henley is professor of Contemporary Indonesia Studies at Leiden University. He obtained his doctorate from the Australian National University and has worked as lecturer at Griffith University, as researcher at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies (KITLV), and as research fellow at the National University of Singapore. His fields of interest are the politics, history and geography of South-East Asia, particularly Indonesia. From 2006 to 2012 he was a coordinator of Tracking Development, an international research project designed to compare Asian and African development trajectories with a view to identifying practical policy lessons for development and development cooperation in Africa.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Front Cover Front cover
About the Author i
Title Page iii
Copyright iv
Contents v
Figures and Tables vi
Acknowledgements viii
1: Diverging Paths 1
Scope of the Divergence 5
Origins of the Divergence 7
South-East Asia’s Road to Development: (1) Sound Macroeconomic Management 15
South-East Asia’s Road to Development: (2) Economic Freedom 17
South-East Asia’s Road to Development: (3) Pro-Poor, Pro-Rural Public Spending 19
Findings and Method in Comparative Perspective 22
Factors Influencing Policy Choices 24
Structure of the Book 26
2: Studying the Divergence 28
Chalk and Cheese? Africa and the Lessons of Asian Development 28
From Choice to Constraint 33
Explaining Divergence: Nigeria and Indonesia 35
The Paradox of African Economic Nationalism: In Search of Capable States 38
According to the Statistics: Africa Against the Geographical Odds 42
According to the Statistics: The Irrelevance of Governance? 45
Comparative Method and Common Sense 47
History Is Not Destiny 49
The Present Methodology: Rigorously Comparative Study of Development Histories 52
Agency and Policy Relevance 55
3: Setting the Stage for Development 57
Indonesia: Macroeconomic Stability and Productive Use of Foreign Aid 57
Nigeria: Economic Nationalism and Macroeconomic Mismanagement 62
Vietnam and Tanzania: Macroeconomic Crisis, Reform, Growth 65
Malaysia and Kenya: Stability a Necessary but Not Sufficient Condition for Growth 67
Vietnam and Tanzania: The Importance of Economic Freedom 70
Indonesia and Nigeria: Market-Oriented Pragmatism versus Regulatory Nationalism 72
Kenya and Malaysia: Market Economies with and Without Parastatal Monopsonies 78
Conclusion: Economic Stability, Resources, Freedom as Preconditions for Development 82
4: Agrarian Roots of Development Success 85
Indonesia: A Two-Stage Development Miracle 86
Nigeria: The Cart Before the Horse 92
The Role of Population Policy 95
Linking Rural Poverty and Industrialization: The Surplus Labour Fallacy 98
From Import-Substituting to Export-Oriented Industry? 100
Linking Rural Development and Industrialization: Stability, Confidence, Savings 103
Rural Bias and Shared Growth 106
Concluding Observations and Policy Implications 110
5: Varieties of Rural Bias 115
Malaysia: A Forgotten Case of Rural Bias 115
The Malaysian Development Trajectory: Sources of Misunderstanding 121
Kenya: A Rare Case of Rural Bias in Africa? 125
Rural Bias Without Pro-Poor Bias 128
A Case Study of Divergent Priorities: FELDA and the Million Acre Scheme 131
Choices or Constraints? 134
Vietnam: More Than the Market 136
Tanzania: Flawed Vision 140
Conclusion 143
6: Elements of the Developmental Mindset 147
Outreach: Quantity, Not Quality 149
Urgency: Priorities, Not Plans 160
Expediency: Results, Not Rules 170
Conclusion 178
7: Origins of the Divergence 179
Nigeria and Indonesia: Roving versus Stationary Bandits? 180
The Primacy of Policy 184
Intellectual Influences on Developmental Visions 188
The Role of Lessons from Experience 191
Political Incentives and Developmental Intent 194
Nationalism and Political Ideology 199
Social Origins of Developmental Elites 202
Historical Origins of the Developmental Mindset 205
Implications for Development and Development Cooperation in Africa 208
References 215
Index 241
Back Cover Back cover