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Europe on the Brink

Europe on the Brink

Tony Phillips | Roberto Lavagna | Christina Laskaridis | Diana Knyazeva | Mariana Montagua | Anzhela Knyazeva | Joseph E. Stiglitz

(2014)

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Book Details

Abstract

Europe is suffering from a bipolar economic disorder. Financial journalists divide the continent into two groups of nations - centre and periphery - not by geography but by credit rating. Europe on the Brink is a critical investigation of the root causes of this sovereign debt crisis, and the often misguided policy choices made to resolve it. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, together with two other finance experts, compares debt contagion in Europe with regional financial crises elsewhere, while Roberto Lavagna, former economics minister in Argentina, provides a poignant comparative analysis with his own country’s experience. Crucially and uniquely, Portuguese, Greek and Irish economists provide hard-hitting case studies from the perspective of the periphery. This much-needed book offers a heterodox economic perspective on the causes, symptoms and solutions of the biggest economic issue currently facing Europe.
Tony Phillips works on sovereignty issues in debt, development, energy and ecology. He was born in Dublin, Ireland.
'This book thoroughly exposes the economic, financial and democratic flaws of the EU institutions rooted in neoliberal thinking, and the "blame the victim" approaches to bolstering the economic system without addressing the causes of the financial and sovereign debt crises.' Malcolm Sawyer, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Leeds University Business School 'This book is a thoughtful reflection on the way in which policies of monetary constipation have created the worst crisis in Europe since the 1930s, and the way in which that crisis has created crises of democracy and political economy in Europe. The agenda for the renewal of that democracy and political economy starts with this book and its young authors.' Professor Jan Toporowski, SOAS, University of London 'This timely volume provides an indispensable guide for anyone who has had second thoughts about whether irresponsible governments in the Eurozone's peripheral regions could be the root cause of Europe-wide stagnation and joblessness. Europe on the Brink shows how European crisis can be traced instead to the Eurozone's unworkable design, which first permitted its unregulated banks' speculative excess and now insists that its residents pay the bill. The root causes of this misbegotten design - the dominance of neoclassical economics in policy discourse and of unchained finance in the global economy - have not been addressed; so Europe remains "on the brink". Find out why in these pages.' Gary Dymski, Professor of Applied Economics, Leeds University Business School

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Front cover Front cover
About the editor i
Title iii
Copyright\r iv
Contents\r v
Figures\r vi
Acknowledgements\r vii
Introduction: sovereign bonds, burden sharing and the Troika’s rescues\r 1
Bubbles and financial lobbies 2
Contagious deregulation from the United States 3
Europe’s toxic loans 6
The EU in crisis 7
Rescue funds: multilateralism euro-style 9
Terms of the rescue 10
This book 13
Notes 14
References 16
1 The Great Recession, spillover in Europe, banking collapse in Ireland\r 17
Introduction 17
Spillover 18
SBC debates 19
Who regulates global finance? 22
US exposure to the European ‘core’ 25
Austerity and privatisation 27
Escalation, contagion and burden sharing 28
Cracks appear in the design of Eurozone institutions 32
Structural imbalances in imports and exports 37
Gross domestic product 38
Structural imbalances and their alternatives 42
Contagion via bond speculation 44
European Union finance steps in 46
Contagion: the role of derivatives 46
Private investment between Europe and the US 49
The US dollar carry trade 50
The role of unregulated derivatives 52
The €2 billion bank bond default in Ireland in 2011 60
Geithner too pleads for derivatives regulation 65
The moral of the story 66
Conclusion 68
Notes 70
References 72
2 Crises and contagion: a survey\r 74
Introduction 74
What causes financial crises? 82
How crises spread 91
Contagion and financial and capital market liberalisation 98
Financial market integration 99
Notes 103
References 107
3 Countering the myths of the Portuguese debt\r 111
Introduction 111
Delicate finances and speculative attacks 113
Portugal: could things have been different? 116
Asymmetric integration and external imbalances 119
3.1 Current account balances as a percentage of GDP in Germany and Portugal, 1994–2010 120
3.2 Financial accounts as a percentage of GDP in Germany and Portugal, 1995–2011 121
Asymmetric integration and public accounts 122
3.3 Interest rates versus GDP growth during the process of nominal convergence, 1992–99 123
Dangerous myths 124
3.4 Average gross annual earnings, 1996–2008 126
3.5 Official unemployment rate in Portugal, 1998–2013 126
3.6 Evolution of real unit labour costs, 1995–2008 127
3.7 Inflation rate, 1997–2008 128
3.8 Evolution of the growth in productivity, 1995–2008 129
3.9 Gross public debt in the euro area as a whole and in Germany and Portugal, 2000–13 131
3.10 Expenditure on social protection in the euro area as a whole and in Germanyand Portugal, 2000–11 132
3.11 Total Portuguese individual debt as a percentage of disposable income and as a percentage of GDP, 1997–2010 133
3.12 Real estate loans and total loans to individuals, 1997–2011 134
The adjustment programme: a fatal cure 134
3.13 Unit labour costs in the euro area and in Portugal, 1995–2013 138
3.14 Portugal’s exports versus imports and GDP, 2008–13 138
Reducing public deficit in times of recession: why it cannot be done 139
3.15 Percentage yields on Portuguese ten-year bonds, 2010–12 140
3.16 Government bond yields plotted against ECB bond purchases 141
Notes 147
References 148
4 Greece: Europe’s worst success story\r 150
Introduction 150
The Greek debt fiasco 154
4.1 Changes in forecasts for GDP and employment outlooks for Greece 167
The social and political impact of the crisis 169
Are there lessons to be learned from the past? 178
Final conclusions 184
Notes 186
References 187
5 Argentina 2001: a heterodox exit from the crisis\r 190
The Argentine crisis of 2001 and recovery between 2002 and 2006 190
The normalisation, recovery and growth plan 192
Before the crisis 194
Once the crisis occurs 198
Simple macroeconomics versus structural adjustment programmes 200
Social participation 203
Restructuring sovereign debt 204
Principal creditors and active entities in the restructuring procedure 207
Conclusion 210
Notes 211
Epilogue\r 214
Problems seeking solutions 214
Human error: a primer on the neoclassical mindset 215
Scrutiny and transparency 222
Scapegoating 226
Democracy in crisis 227
What form of European Union might evolve from the crisis? 229
Rebuilding confidence 231
Notes 233
References 234
About the Contributors\r 235
Glossary\r 237
Index\r 256
Back cover Back cover