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Abstract
Is it really true that the trade agreements pursued in the World Trade Organisation and through regional negotiations are vital for eliminating world poverty and achieving a sustainable future? Or is trade liberalization the villain of the piece? Clive George's provocative book examines the evidence, exposes the myths, and presents challenging new proposals for comprehensive reform of the global trading system. Based on ten years of in-depth research into the impacts of trade agreements on sustainable development, it reveals that few of the claims made by the major players stand up to scrutiny, while many of the counter-claims lack rigour in their analysis of key issues. It cuts through the rhetoric with illuminating anecdotes from the author's experience of working with trade negotiators, to present a more realistic view of their motives and the outcomes they achieve. Each of the components of the negotiation agenda is examined in turn, to identify the most likely economic, social and environmental impacts of liberalising trade in manufactured goods, agriculture, services, investment, intellectual property rights and the other rules by which trade is governed. In some cases the rhetoric approximates to reality while in many others the negotiated outcomes do more harm than good to both development and its environmental sustainability.
From its analysis of the relationships between trade, social transformation, economic growth and environmental integrity, the book concludes with proposals for how the world trade regime might be reformed to help tackle the world's most pressing problems instead of making them worse.
Clive George followed a career in industrial management before joining the University of Manchester to undertake research and consultancy on the use of impact assessment techniques in international development. As a Senior Research Fellow in the University's School of Environment and Development he was principal advisor to the World Bank on the evaluation and development of impact assessment systems in the Middle East and North Africa and has acted as a consultant to the OECD, UNEP and other international agencies. Through his work for UNEP and the European Commission he has become one of the world's leading experts on assessing the interacting economic, social and environmental impacts of international trade agreements. His books include Environment and the City (2008) with Peter Roberts and Joe Ravetz, Impact Assessment and Sustainable Development (2007) with Colin Kirkpatrick, and Environmental Assessment in Developing and Transitional Countries (2000) with Norman Lee. He has published numerous articles on sustainable development, impact assessment, global governance and international trade.
'Trade and trade liberalization on its own and as practiced today will not necessarily result in a more sustainable future. This is what the arguements and in-depth analysis in this interesting and thought provoking publication provide. It is a recommended reading for practitioners, trade negotiators, and policy makers concerned about making trade an effective tool for facilitating the transition to more green and sustainable economies.'
Hussein Abaza, Economics and Trade Branch
'Clive George was at the centre of the EU's ten-year research programme into the impacts of trade liberalization. Now he is able to reveal the true findings of that research. This careful assessment of the evidence shows how trade liberalization threatens economic development, anti-poverty programmes and environmental sustainability in the vast majority of developing countries, with potentially catastrophic results. This book is an important corrective to the myth that free trade will lift millions out of poverty. It should become required reading for all people seeking to understand the truth about trade.'
John Hilary, War on Want
'Finally, an empirically-based assessment of the trade and globalization process that does not veer left or right, but moves the debate forward!'
Kevin P. Gallagher, Boston University
'George also discusses harms from intellectual-property agreements, competition and investment policies, and regional trade agreements, before suggesting some reforms to make policy in "the global interest", and to mitigate "biodiversity loss" and global warming. "Scientific rigour tends to be unpopular with decision-makers, who generally use the studies to support their own proposals and may prefer not to know how far from the truth the results might be." Perhaps they have somewhat less of an excuse now.'
Stephen Poole, The Guardian
'...a tour de force from a practitioner in the field, which is likely to shock, and rightly so, all those wedded to the ideology of neo-liberalism.'
P. Pacheco-Lopez, University of Kent
Table of Contents
Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
---|---|---|---|
About the author\r | i | ||
Boxes\r | v | ||
Preface | vii | ||
Note\r | x | ||
Acknowledgements | xi | ||
Abbreviations | xiii | ||
Part one | Agendas | 1 | ||
Introduction | 2 | ||
1 | From the Corn Laws to Seattle | 3 | ||
The battle in Seattle | 3 | ||
Sustainable development | 5 | ||
Trade liberalization | 7 | ||
Trade, environment and poverty | 9 | ||
2 | A matter for negotiation | 11 | ||
A question for the Trade Commissioner | 11 | ||
The negotiation process | 13 | ||
The role of sustainability impact assessment | 15 | ||
3 | Claims and counter-claims | 18 | ||
Impact assessment | 18 | ||
Decision-based evidence-making | 20 | ||
The SIA methodology | 21 | ||
Box 3.1 The Doha agenda | 22 | ||
Box 4.1 The evolution of Korea’s development strategy | 48 | ||
Assessing the impacts | 24 | ||
Interpreting the evidence | 26 | ||
Part two | Impacts | 29 | ||
Introduction | 30 | ||
4 | Climbing the development ladder | 31 | ||
Trade in manufactured goods | 31 | ||
Traditional economic gains from liberalizing trade in manufactures | 32 | ||
Loss of government revenues | 35 | ||
Production effects | 36 | ||
Employment | 38 | ||
Wage levels, working conditions and gender effects | 40 | ||
Environmental impacts | 42 | ||
Dynamic effects | 44 | ||
Box 4.1 The evolution of Korea’s development strategy | 48 | ||
Overall impact on sustainable development | 49 | ||
5 | Food for thought | 51 | ||
Trade in agricultural products | 51 | ||
Traditional economic gains from liberalizing agricultural trade | 52 | ||
Prices and production | 53 | ||
Food security | 55 | ||
Energy security and biofuels | 56 | ||
Employment, incomes and working conditions | 57 | ||
Environmental impacts | 60 | ||
Box 5.1 Agriculture and forestry in Brazil | 62 | ||
Dynamic effects | 64 | ||
Overall impact on sustainable development | 66 | ||
6 | Invisible earnings | 68 | ||
Trade in services | 68 | ||
Services negotiations | 70 | ||
Traditional economic gains | 71 | ||
Varieties of service industry | 71 | ||
Financial services | 73 | ||
Communications services | 76 | ||
Environmental services | 76 | ||
Box 6.1 Public sector initiatives in water supply and sanitation | 78 | ||
Transport services | 80 | ||
Distribution services | 84 | ||
Box 6.2 Liberalization of distribution services in Brazil, Kenya and Malaysia | 82 | ||
Overall impact on sustainable development | 84 | ||
7 | TRIPs abroad | 86 | ||
Intellectual property | 86 | ||
TRIPs and public health | 89 | ||
Geographical product names | 90 | ||
TRIPs and industrial development | 91 | ||
TRIPs and biological diversity | 92 | ||
Overall impact on sustainable development | 95 | ||
8 | Filling the gaps | 97 | ||
Trade facilitation | 97 | ||
Box 8.1 Perceived technical barriers to trade for importing into the EU | 99 | ||
Government procurement | 100 | ||
Competition | 102 | ||
Investment | 105 | ||
Overall impact on sustainable development | 107 | ||
9 | The rules of the game | 108 | ||
WTO rules | 108 | ||
Dispute settlement | 110 | ||
Subsidies, countervailing measures and anti-dumping | 111 | ||
Technical and health standards | 113 | ||
Special and differential treatment | 113 | ||
Regional trade agreements | 115 | ||
Trade and environment | 117 | ||
Overall impact on sustainable development | 119 | ||
The missing element | 119 | ||
Part three | Responses | 123 | ||
Introduction | 124 | ||
10 | Outflanking measures | 125 | ||
A selection of answers | 125 | ||
Indirect influences | 127 | ||
Aid for trade | 129 | ||
11 | Rewriting the rules | 133 | ||
The global interest and the national interest | 134 | ||
A new kind of agreement | 136 | ||
The single undertaking | 137 | ||
Trade in manufactured goods | 139 | ||
Agricultural trade | 141 | ||
Services trade | 143 | ||
The Singapore issues and intellectual property | 144 | ||
Beyond Rio and Bretton Woods | 145 | ||
12 | An end and a beginning | 148 | ||
The impacts | 148 | ||
A new beginning | 150 | ||
Notes | 154 | ||
Bibliography | 157 | ||
Index | 172 |