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Abstract
The demographic transition and its related effects of population growth, fertility decline and ageing populations are fraught with controversy. When discussed in relation to the global south and the modern project of development, the questions and answers become more problematic.
Population and Development offers an expert guide on the demographic transition, from its origins in Enlightenment Europe through to the rest of the world. Tim Dyson examines how, while the phenomenon continues to cause unsustainable population growth with serious economic and environmental implications, its processes have underlain previous periods of sustained economic growth, helped to liberate women from the domestic domain, and contributed greatly to the rise of modern democracy. This accessible yet scholarly analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic theory.
'This is a bold and original book which places population change at the centre of human development over the past 250 years. Written in a highly accessible style, this book should be read by everyone interested in the fundamental forces that have shaped the modern world.'
John Cleland, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
'What a systematic exposition of the linkages between population and development! Dyson, through his life-long experience with strong statistical evidences argues that no other force has greater consequences for development than demographic transition as it influences population aging, international migration and climate change.'
S Irudaya Rajan, Centre for Development Studies
'This work represents a remarkable contribution to the literature on world demographic and social changes.'
Zhongwei Zhao, The Australian National University
'This accessible yet scholarly analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic transition theory.'
Arokiasamy, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai
Tim Dyson is Professor of Population Studies at the London School of Economics. His research interests include world food and agricultural prospects, the causes and consequences of famines, the demographic basis of urban growth and urbanization, climate change and global warming, the demography and epidemiology of HIV/AIDS, and the past, present and future population of the Indian subcontinent.
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| About the author | i | ||
| Figures and tables | vi | ||
| Figures | vi | ||
| 2.1 The role of the demographic transition in world development – key relationships | 9 | ||
| 2.2 The demographic transition – vital rates in Sweden and Sri Lanka | 12 | ||
| 2.3 Population ageing – the changing age distributions of Sweden and Sri Lanka | 22 | ||
| 2.4 The rate of natural increase as a determinant of urban growth, fifty-six countries, 1995–2005 | 26 | ||
| 3.1 World population and urban growth over two millennia – the recent influence of the demographic transition | 51 | ||
| 3.2 Population growth rates for the world and its more and less developed regions since the eighteenth century | 56 | ||
| 3.3 Crude death and birth rates for the world’s more and less developed regions, 1950–2010 | 57 | ||
| 3.4 Percentage age distributions, and associated demographic estimates, selected countries around 2010 | 66 | ||
| 3.5 Estimates and projections for the world of total fertility, the number of women of reproductive age, and the number of births, 1950–2050 | 72 | ||
| 3.6 Population size and age distribution, Russia and Nigeria –estimates and projections for 1950, 2000 and 2050 | 76 | ||
| 4.1 The demographic transition – vital rates in six populations | 86 | ||
| 4.2 The rate of natural increase – selected historical and contemporary transitions | 88 | ||
| 4.3 The rate of population increase in China since 1931 | 90 | ||
| 4.4 The rate of natural increase in the United States, Australia and New Zealand | 94 | ||
| 4.5 Vital rates in France since 1740 | 96 | ||
| 4.6 The changing relationship between per capita income and life expectancy, fifty-six countries, 1950–55 and 2000–05 | 106 | ||
| 4.7 The changing relationship between per capita income and total fertility, fifty-six countries, 1950–55 and 2000–05 | 112 | ||
| 5.1 Crude death and birth rates for urban and rural areas of Sweden and Sri Lanka | 144 | ||
| 5.2 Estimates of urbanization, more developed regions, 1800–2010, and individual less developed regions, 1950–2010 | 148 | ||
| 5.3 A stylized sketch of the processes behind urban growth and urbanization | 150 | ||
| 6.1 The relationship between total fertility and the UN gender empowerment measure, forty-one countries, around 2007 | 176 | ||
| 7.1 Population growth and economic growth, fifty-six countries,1975–2005 | 194 | ||
| 7.2 Past and projected dependency ratios for East Asia, 1950–2050 | 196 | ||
| 7.3 The relationship between urbanization and democracy, fifty-six countries, around 2005 | 205 | ||
| 7.4 Urbanization and the growth of democracy in major world regions since about 1800 | 207 | ||
| Tables | vii | ||
| 3.1 Summary of world population estimates, 1800–2010 | 52 | ||
| 3.2 Demographic estimates for the world’s regions around the year 2010, with projections to 2050 | 58 | ||
| 3.3 World population projections to 2050 | 70 | ||
| 5.1 Estimates of the proportion of the population living in urban areas, and the rate of urbanization for the world’s regions,1950–2010 | 130 | ||
| 6.1 Selected dimensions of the rise in societal complexity resulting from urban growth and urbanization | 180 | ||
| Preface | viii | ||
| Glossary | xiii | ||
| PART ONE: Introduction | 1 | ||
| 1 | Introduction | 3 | ||
| 2 | The demographic transition – origins, processes, effects | 8 | ||
| The transition and its major processes | 8 | ||
| Figure 2.1 The role of the demographic transition in world development—key relationships | 9 | ||
| Figure 2.2 The demographic transition—vital rates in Sweden and Sri Lanka | 12 | ||
| Figure 2.3 Population ageing—the changing age distributions of Sweden and Sri Lanka | 22 | ||
| Figure 2.4 The rate of natural increase as a determinant of urban growth, fifty-six countries, 1995–2005 | 26 | ||
| The effects of the transition | 28 | ||
| Discussion | 42 | ||
| 3 | World population and the transition | 50 | ||
| Past growth of the world’s population | 50 | ||
| Figure 3.1 World population and urban growth over two millennia—the recent influence of the demographic transition | 51 | ||
| Table 3.1 Summary of world population estimates, 1800–2010 | 52 | ||
| Figure 3.2 Population growth rates for the world and its more and less developed regions since the eighteenth century | 56 | ||
| Figure 3.3 Crude death and birth rates for the world’s more and less developed regions, 1950–2010 | 57 | ||
| Table 3.2 Demographic estimates for the world’s regions around the year 2010, with projections to 2050 | 58 | ||
| Contemporary demographic variation | 59 | ||
| Figure 3.4 Percentage age distributions, and associated demographic estimates, selected countries around 2010 | 66 | ||
| Future demographic change | 69 | ||
| Table 3.3 World population projections to 2050 | 70 | ||
| Figure 3.5 Estimates and projections for the world of total fertility ,the number of women of reproductive age, and the number of births, 1950–2050 | 72 | ||
| Figure 3.6 Population size and age distribution, Russia and Nigeria—estimates and projections for 1950, 2000 and 2050 | 76 | ||
| Discussion | 77 | ||
| PART TWO: The processes of the demographic transition | 81 | ||
| 4 | The demographic transition – facts and theory | 83 | ||
| Matters of fact | 84 | ||
| Figure 4.1 The demographic transition—vital rates in six populations | 86 | ||
| Figure 4.2 The rate of natural increase—selected historical and contemporary transitions | 88 | ||
| Figure 4.3 The rate of population increase in China since 1931 | 90 | ||
| Figure 4.4 The rate of natural increase in the United States, Australia and New Zealand | 94 | ||
| Figure 4.5 Vital rates in France since 1740 | 96 | ||
| The explanation of mortality decline | 102 | ||
| Figure 4.6 The changing relationship between per capita income and life expectancy, fifty-six countries, 1950–55 and 2000–05 | 106 | ||
| Explanations of fertility decline | 109 | ||
| Figure 4.7 The changing relationship between per capita income and total fertility, fifty-six countries, 1950–55 and 2000–05 | 112 | ||
| Mortality decline as the remote cause of fertility decline | 119 | ||
| Conclusions and discussion | 122 | ||
| 5 | Urbanization and the transition | 125 | ||
| Background | 126 | ||
| Table 5.1 Estimates of the proportion of the population living in urban areas, and the rate of urbanization for the world’s regions, 1950–2010 | 130 | ||
| Economic aspects of urbanization | 132 | ||
| Demographic aspects of urbanization | 137 | ||
| Figure 5.1 Crude death and birth rates for urban and rural areas of Sweden and Sri Lanka | 144 | ||
| Figure 5.2 Estimates of urbanization, more developed regions, 1800–2010, and individual less developed regions, 1950–2010 | 148 | ||
| Figure 5.3 A stylized sketch of the processes behind urban growth and urbanization | 150 | ||
| Conclusions and discussion | 151 | ||
| PART THREE: The effects of the demographic transition | 157 | ||
| 6 | Social effects of the transition | 159 | ||
| Preliminary remarks | 159 | ||
| Socio-psychological effects | 161 | ||
| Effects on household structure and size | 167 | ||
| The decline of marriage | 170 | ||
| Reductions in gender differentiation | 175 | ||
| Figure 6.1 The relationship between total fertility and the UN gender empowerment measure, forty-one countries, around 2007 | 176 | ||
| Urbanization and societal complexity | 179 | ||
| Table 6.1 Selected dimensions of the rise in societal complexity resulting from urban growth and urbanization | 180 | ||
| Conclusions and discussion | 184 | ||
| 7 | Economic and political effects | 188 | ||
| Economic effects | 188 | ||
| Figure 7.1 Population growth and economic growth, fifty-six countries, 1975–2005 | 194 | ||
| Figure 7.2 Past and projected dependency ratios for East Asia, 1950–2050 | 196 | ||
| Political effects | 201 | ||
| Figure 7.3 The relationship between urbanization and democracy, fifty-six countries, around 2005 | 205 | ||
| Figure 7.4 Urbanization and the growth of democracy in major world regions since about 1800 | 207 | ||
| Discussion | 209 | ||
| PART FOUR: Conclusion | 213 | ||
| 8 | Conclusions, discussion, the future | 215 | ||
| Conclusions | 215 | ||
| Discussion | 220 | ||
| The future | 224 | ||
| Appendix: remarks on data and approach | 229 | ||
| Notes | 231 | ||
| Chapter 1 | 231 | ||
| Chapter 2 | 231 | ||
| Chapter 3 | 232 | ||
| Chapter 4 | 233 | ||
| Chapter 5 | 236 | ||
| Chapter 6 | 239 | ||
| Chapter 7 | 241 | ||
| Chapter 8 | 243 | ||
| Bibliography | 245 | ||
| Index | 262 |