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The Great Eurozone Disaster

The Great Eurozone Disaster

Heikki Patomaki | James O'Connor

(2013)

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Abstract

The last couple of years have seen the eurozone lurch from crisis to calamity. With Greece, Portugal and Ireland already driven to the brink of economic catastrophe, and the threat that a number of other EU countries are soon to follow, the consequences for the global economy are potentially dire.
In The Great Eurozone Disaster, Heikki Patomäki dissects the current crisis, revealing its origins lie in the instability that has driven the process of financialisation since the early 1970s. Furthermore, the public debt crises in the European deficit countries have been aggravated rather than alleviated by the responses of the Commission and leaders of the surplus countries, especially Germany.
Providing a captivating narrative about how Europe ended up in its present predicament, Patomäki presents a radical new vision for 'global economic democracy' as the only viable way out of the current crisis.
'Heikki Patomäki presents a powerful argument about the roots of the financial crisis and from this perspective analyses key deficiencies in the current EU policies: a clear and well-structured analysis about a complex issue. The Great Eurozone Disaster is solid in theory and accessible in wording, providing a coherent and captivating narrative about how Europe ended up in its current economic crisis and how it should get out of it.' Teija Tiilikainen, Finnish Institute for International Affairs 'The Great Eurozone Disaster offers a compelling analysis of Europe's debt crisis since 2010 and the underlying global financial crisis of 2008-9. It is based on sophisticated discussion of European and global political economy while the style of writing is accessible and fair in giving space to different interpretations. In short, this book has value both as a basic text and a visionary essay that wants to partake in history-making and assume responsibility.' Pami Aalto, University of Tampere 'Analyses of the euro crisis need to take full account of the role of both the economics and politics of Economic and Monetary Union. This book meets these needs beautifully, in an original and easy-to-understand manner.' Pekka Sauramo, Labour Institute for Economic Research 'The Great Eurozone Disaster demonstrates why Heikki Patomäki is one of Finland's leading public intellectuals. This compelling and eminently readable book on the Eurozone crisis sides with a revived Keynesianism, yet going beyond that tradition in two important respects. First, it situates economic dynamics in a broader socio-political and above all global analysis that overcomes economistic and nationalist myopia. Second, it engages in a visionary scenario-painting of possible futures that breaks with post-World War II nostalgia. Patomäki offers a breathtaking perspective that deserves serious consideration by anyone concerned with a progressive and democratic future for Europe in the world.' Magnus Ryner, King's College London 'In The Great Eurozone Disaster, Heikki Patomäki has given us an indispensable book about the twin crises of Europe and of global capitalism. Its overview of the Eurozone crisis shows how reliance on the financial theory of market efficiency both guided the Eurozone's construction and led to the current sovereign-debt scare. Its clarity will benefit newcomers to this topic; experts will appreciate its institutional nuances. By sketching out three future scenarios for Europe, the book initiates a sorely needed debate about the twin futures of global economic governance and Keynesian policy.' Gary Dymski, Leeds University 'Heikki Patomaki gives us here a lucid and persuasive account of the eurozone crisis and the EU's so far completely unsuccessful response to it. Not only arguing that the impasse of neoliberal strategies may open the way to a Federal Europe committed to democratic values, he also makes the case for a Europe facing outwards: one contributing to effective coordination at a world level for sustainable development. The book will be valuable to all those seeking a future for Europe which is better than its recent past and its present crises.' John Grahl, Middlesex University 'A valuable resource for both economists and political scientists concerned with modern Europe and worldwide economic and political integration.' H. D. Renning, in CHOICE
Heikki Patomäki is Professor of World Politics at the University of Helsinki, Finland. Previously he has also worked as a Professor of World Politics and Economy at the Nottingham Trent University, UK, and RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia. In 2012 he acted as a Visiting Professor at the Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto, Japan. Patomäki’s research interests include philosophy and methodology of social sciences, peace research, futures studies, economic theory, global political economy, and global political theory. His most recent book is The Political Economy of Global Security. War, Future Crises and Changes in Global Governance (Routledge, 2008). He is currently working on two new books, Unprincipled Economics (with Jamie Morgan) and Global Futures. Patomäki is a founding member of NIGD (Network Institute for Global Democratisation) and has also been an activist in the international ATTAC movement from its inception, currently chairing ATTAC Finland.

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Economic controversies i
About the author ii
Title page iii
Copyright iv
Contents v
Preface vii
1 Introduction 1
Figure 1.1 William Hogarth’s South Sea Scheme 4
Figure 1.2 The euro crisis and global economic processes 6
2 The economic theory of debt crises 13
Necessary metaphors and misleading rhetoric 16
Economic paradoxes 17
Figure 2.1 An illustration of the whole–part fallacy 18
On money 22
Conclusions 26
3 The predictability of global financial turmoil 28
What really happened? 31
Figure 3.1 In the early phases of every bubble, optimism runs high and those involved are typically convinced that their luck will hold. 32
Figure 3.2 The development of housing and stock prices in the USA, 1987–2011 34
How could this happen? 37
On extravagant saving and accumulation of debt 40
The speculative economy and the changing nature of debt 43
Table 3.1 The mutually reinforcing effects of financialization 45
Figure 3.3 Debt levels in the US economy, 1986–2011 (debt/%GDP) 48
Figure 3.4 Debt levels in Finland, 1975–2010 (debt/%GDP) 49
Two interpretations of late modern capitalism and its weaknesses 49
On the fast circulation of money and its consequences 54
Conclusions 55
4 Contradictions at the heart of the EMU 57
An optimal currency area? 60
Figure 4.1 Robert Mundell 61
The causes of running into debt in the crisis countries 65
Figure 4.2 Average annual current account deficits and surpluses in twelve EMU countries, 2002–09 (%) 67
Theories of money and problems of public finance in the EMU system 70
Circular reasoning and self-fulfilling prophecies 74
Figure 4.3 The public debt interest cycle 77
Figure 4.4 The circular reasoning of orthodox economic liberalism 78
Conclusions 79
5 The trouble with the EU’s official reform proposals 82
The European Stability Mechanism 85
Regulating financial markets: the financial transaction tax 89
Figure 5.1 The more likely the introduction of some form of financial transaction tax has become, the louder the finance industry in London and throughout the world has been in opposing it. 91
Eurobonds and budgetary discipline 94
Assessing the proposals 100
6 European futures 104
What grounds expectations about the EMU’s future? 108
Table 6.1 Prognoses for the EU 109
Figure 6.1 The European debt crisis is still being handled through traditional state diplomacy 113
Three scenarios on the EU’s future after the crisis 114
Table 6.2 The ideal-type social-democratic federal state 121
Conclusions 128
7 How should debt crises be resolved? 133
Lessons of German history: war debt and its consequences 138
Figure 7.1 A banknote for ten billion marks, October 1923 142
The 1953 London debt agreement 145
Learning from developing countries’ debt problems 146
Table 7.1 The accumulation of phantom loans 149
Figure 7.2 Bono and German chancellor Angela Merkel 152
Debt arbitration mechanism 154
Requirements for debt settlement: undoing both mounting debt and financialization 156
Conclusions 162
8 Towards democratic global Keynesianism 164
Figure 8.1 Keynes’s comparison of financial markets to casinos has implications for regulation and taxation 167
Global Keynesianism: the holistic viewpoint 169
Towards global Keynesian institutions 175
The argument for global democracy 182
Towards planetary politics and a global imaginary 185
Figure 8.2 In the Internet era the planet itself is seemingly becoming virtual 188
What comes after globalization? 190
Glossary of key terms and acronyms 194
Notes 207
Bibliography 251
Index 268