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The Future of South-South Economic Relations

The Future of South-South Economic Relations

Adil Najam | Rachel Thrasher

(2012)

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Abstract

In recent years, it has become apparent that South-South economic relations are increasing, and will continue to do so. There will be more trade agreements and more trade, more economic alliances and more political alliances with economic goals, more investment flows and an increasing acknowledgement that the Global South has more to offer than it has in the past. These new economics relations have great potential, both for harm and for good. In the absence of directed policies and intentional actors, imbalances of power and growing gaps in development will persist. With the right policies in place, however, these relationships could forge a new global order with greater economic and political equality. Covering a wide range of topics, including regional trade integration in Africa, the environmental impact of increased South-South trade, the changing patterns of South-South investment, and the effect of conflict on trade in South Asia, this ground-breaking volume presents an analysis of South-South economic relations, and how they might impact and be impacted by the rest of the world.
Adil Najam is the vice chancellor of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), Pakistan. Until 2011 he was the Frederick S. Pardee professor of global public policy at Boston University and the director of the Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. Professor Najam was a lead author for the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), work for which the IPCC was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. In 2009 he was selected by the United Nations secretary-general to serve on the UN Committee on Development (CDP). In 2010, he was awarded the Sitara-i-Imtiaz, one of Pakistan’s highest civil awards, and in 2011 he was elected as a trustee of WWF-International. Rachel Thrasher is a research fellow in the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University.
'South-South relations will no doubt be a major driver of global change in the twenty-first century. This volume, delving deep into the motives driving these relations, their intended and unintended consequences, and the diversity of arrangements that are emerging, is a rich collection of insights that raises many questions for a future research agenda.' Sakiko Fukuda-Parr, Professor of International Affairs, The New School 'As the Northern economic engine falters, South-South economic relationships are becoming increasingly significant for the development prospects of poor countries. This important collection is therefore extremely timely. It provides a comprehensive and subtle analysis of burgeoning S-S links within and between regions, pointing to effects (both positive and negative) on the major players as well as the less developed countries, in relation to patterns of development and environmental matters. The book provides a range of extremely useful empirical material on this complex and highly relevant issue.' Professor Frances Stewart, University of Oxford 'This comprehensive collection of compelling analytical contributions from North and South paints a broad canvas of critical issues in South-South cooperation. By openly addressing growing imbalances and conflicting interests among developing countries, the volume helps to demystify Southern cooperation as panacea to an unjust global economy. But going beyond the rhetoric of solidarity, the publication informs scholars as well as policy-makers about the significant potential of South-South interactions for inclusive sustainable development if policy frameworks and market incentives are adequately designed.' Dr Thomas Fues, German Development Institute 'This book is both important and timely, as it highlights some new compulsions for greater South-South cooperation: growing disillusionment with multilateral trade negotiations, shrinking markets in the North following the 2008 financial crisis and a younger and more dynamic workforce compared to an ageing population in the North. It also identifies the obstacles that must be overcome to realize the full potential of South-South cooperation and build an alternative global trade regime that is more resilient, inclusive and sustainable.' Sartaj Aziz, Former Finance and Foreign Minister to Pakistan 'Congratulations to Adil Najam and Rachel Thrasher. This is a major new addition to global knowledge about the important topic of South-South economic relations. The subjects covered deal with critical questions around development, international relations, political science and environmental sustainability, which are made accessible through applied regional and country case studies. Bringing together a diverse range of authors, this volume will be welcomed by students, practitioners and policymakers alike, looking for a clear and concise overview of key issues and challenges facing the world today.' Jeni Klugman, Director of Gender and Development, The World Bank, Washington DC, and Former Director of the Global Human Development Report (2009-11), UNDP 'An excellent book if you wish to catch-up on the emerging dynamics of South-South cooperation, plus learn about the new challenges and limitations that this model faces in the realm of trade, investment and economic cooperation when today's markets are expected to prevail over several other considerations.' Sachin Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
About the editors i
Title page iii
Copyright page iv
Table of contents v
Figures and tables vi
Figures vi
1.1 Number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in effect by year 15
1.2 Spaghetti bowl of PTAs in the Western hemisphere 16
2.1 Dynamics of intra-African exports by region, 1980–2008 44
2.2 Dynamics of intra-African imports by region, 1980–2008 44
2.3 African South–South exports, 1980–2008 47
3.1 An emerging East Asian community 61
4.1 The SAARC–SAPTA/SAFTA interface 75
4.2 Tariff reductions across regions (1986–2002) 78
4.3 Stability index 81
4.4 The process in reverse 82
5.1 Developed and developing countries’ involvement in WTO panels (1995–2010) 103
5.2 Composition of WTO panels according to country member category (1995–2012) 104
6.1 Evolution of outward foreign direct investment by group of origin 113
6.2 Selected South countries’ OFDI flows, 1980–2008 113
6.3 Indian OFDI stock: main South destinations 115
7.a1 Brazilian trade balance, 1990–2011 147
7.a2 Brazilian trade balance with developing countries, 1990–2011 148
7.a3 Brazilian trade balance with developing countries, 1990–2011 148
7.a4 Brazilian trade balance with G20 members, 1990–2011 149
7.a5 Brazilian trade balance with G20 members, 1990–2011 149
7.a6 Brazilian trade balance with BRICs (incl. South Africa), 1990–2011 150
7.a7 Brazilian trade balance with BRICs (incl. South Africa), 1990–2011 150
7.a8 China’s contribution to Brazilian exports to developing countries, 1990–2011 151
7.a9 China’s contribution to Brazilian imports from developing countries, 1990–2011 152
7.a10 Individual contributions to Brazilian exports to BRICS, 1990–2011 153
7.a11 Individual contribution to Brazilian imports from BRICs, 1990–2011 154
7.a12 Brazilian trade balance with BRICs in relation to developing countries,1990–2011 155
7.a13 Brazilian trade balance with developed countries, 1990–2011 155
7.a14 Brazilian trade balance with developed countries, 1990–2011 156
7.a15 Brazilian exports, developing versus developed countries, 1990–2011 156
7.a16 Brazilian imports, developing versus developed countries, 1990–2011 157
7.a17 Brazilian export balance with selected countries (1990–2011) 158
7.a18 Brazilian import balance with selected countries (1990–2011) 159
7.a19 Brazilian FDI, 2001–08 160
7.a20 Brazilian direct investment abroad, 2001–08 160
8.1 Volume of trade between Brazil and its CAN neighbours, 1992–2009 170
8.2 Volume of trade between Brazil and its Mercosur neighbours, 1992–2008 171
8.3 Brazil’s total trade with India, South Africa and Argentina, 1992–2008 175
9.1 Manufacturing exports, billions of current dollars 192
10.1 GCC trade with India 203
10.2 GCC trade with China 203
10.3 India’s trade with GCC countries 204
10.4 China’s trade with GCC countries 204
10.5 Shares of India and China in Saudi Arabian imports 205
10.6 Shares of India and China in UAE imports 205
10.7 Shares of India and China in Saudi Arabian exports 206
10.8 Shares of India and China in UAE exports 206
Tables vii
1.1 The ‘new regionalism’ in the Americas 13
1.2 ‘Post-liberal’ regional blocs 19
1.3 Evolution of intra-regional trade flows 24
1.a1 RTAs in the Americas 28
2.1 Major regional economic communities in Africa 40
2.2 Intra-African trade by RECs, percentage of total trade 45
2.3 African South–South aggregate trade, percentage of total trade 47
2.4 African South–South trade by country, percentage of total country trade 48
3.1 Proposed East Asian Community in relation to the EU and NAFTA in 2008 63
4.1 Intra-regional trade comparisons 80
5.1 Proliferation of developing country coalitions in the GATT/WTO, 1973–2007 96
6.1 Top OFDI sources in terms of stock, 2008 114
6.2 Indian OFDI stock, 1976–86 116
6.3 Indian OFDI stock, 1996–2009 117
6.4 1986 Brazilian OFDI accumulated flows by destination 120
6.5 Brazilian OFDI stock, 2001 and 2008 122
6.6 Major acquisitions, 1993–2000, by value 123
6.7 Largest greenfield FDI projects, 2002–04 124
6.a1 Major acquisitions by Indian companies, 2001–June 2009 129
6.a2 Major acquisitions by Brazilian companies, 2000–08 129
8.1 Comparative outcomes for the emerging powers and the OECD 164
9.1 Growth and reform in China and LAC, 1980–2010 180
9.2 Five countries, eight sectors, dominate LAC trade to China 182
9.3 Share of China exports in selected countries and sectors, 2008 183
9.4 Chinese FDI in Latin America: major projects and motivations 184
9.5 Selected major Chinese services contracts in LAC 188
9.6 China: taking away the (manufacturing) ladder? Percentage of world manufacturing exports 194
9.7 Exports to the world, percentage under ‘threat’ from China 196
10.1 Bilateral investment treaties 207
10.2 Estimates of total foreign assets in December 2006 208
Abbreviations ix
Introduction 1
South–South economic cooperation: historical understanding 2
Recent trends in South–South economic cooperation 3
Understanding the future of South–South economic relations 4
Conclusion 9
References 10
1 Latin American economic cooperation: causes and consequences of regime complexity 11
The changing landscape of regional trade and economic cooperation in the Americas 12
Table 1.1 The ‘new regionalism’ in the Americas 13
Figure 1.1 Number of RTAs in effect by year 15
Figure 1.2 Spaghetti bowl of PTAs in the Western hemisphere 16
Table 1.2 ‘Post-liberal’ regional blocs 19
The causes of RTA proliferation and regime complexity in the Americas 19
The consequences of RTA proliferation and regime complexity 23
Table 1.3 Evolution of intra-regional trade flows: intra-regional trade coefficient 24
Conclusions 26
Appendix 28
Notes 31
References 31
2 African trade and economic integration: longer-range prospects 34
African trade and economic integration in historical perspective 35
The nature and structure of trade and regional economic integration in Africa 38
Table 2.1 Major regional economic communities in Africa 40
Assessment of intra-African economic integration and trade performance 43
Figure 2.1 Dynamics of intra-African exports by region, 1980–2008 44
Figure 2.2 Dynamics of intra-African imports by region, 1980–2008 44
Table 2.2 Intra-African trade by RECs, percentage of total trade 45
Figure 2.3 African South–South exports, 1980–2008 47
Table 2.3 African South–South aggregate trade, percentage of total trade 47
Table 2.4 African South–South trade by country, percentage of total country trade 48
Longer-range future prospects for trade and economic integration in Africa 49
Policy recommendations for accelerating trade and economic integration in Africa 53
Conclusion 55
Notes 56
References 56
3 Financial crisis and regional economic cooperation in Asia-Pacific 58
Impetus for regional economic cooperation in Asia 59
Emerging patterns of regional economic integration in Asia and the case for broader arrangements 59
Figure 3.1 An emerging East Asian community 61
Table 3.1 Proposed East Asian Community in relation to the EU and NAFTA in 2008 63
Gains from economic integration in the EAS framework 63
Priority areas for cooperation for EAS 66
A coordinated approach to reforms in global economic governance 69
Concluding remarks 70
Notes 71
References 71
4 Regional trade integration and conflict resolution: an institutional paradigm 73
Figure 4.1 The SAARC–SAPTA/SAFTA interface 75
Research question 75
South Asian RTAs: mapping South Asian regional trade agreements 76
Do RTAs promote peace? 77
Figure 4.2 Tariff reductions across regions (1986–2002) 78
Table 4.1 Intra-regional trade comparisons 80
Does conflict constrain trade? 81
Figure 4.3 Stability index 81
Figure 4.4 The process in reverse 82
The dominant-country paradigm 84
Looking to the future 87
Notes 87
References 88
5 Developing countries at the WTO in a changing global order 91
Motivations behind developing country coalitions 92
Developing country coalitions in the Doha Round 94
Table 5.1 Proliferation of developing country coalitions in the GATT/WTO, 1973–2007 96
Participation with teeth: developing countries and WTO dispute settlement 100
Figure 5.1 Developed and developing countries’ involvement in WTO panels (1995–2010) 103
Figure 5.2 Composition of WTO panels according to country member category (1995–2012) 104
Final remarks 106
Notes 107
References 108
6 South–South foreign direct investment flows: wishful thinking or reality? 111
More than three decades of South investment 112
Figure 6.1 Evolution of outward foreign direct investment by group of origin 113
Figure 6.2 Selected South countries’ OFDI flows, 1980–2008 113
Table 6.1 Top OFDI sources in terms of stock, 2008 114
India case study 115
Figure 6.3 Indian OFDI stock: main South destinations 115
Table 6.2 Indian OFDI stock: 1976–86 116
Table 6.3 Indian OFDI stock, 1996–2009 117
Brazil case study 119
Table 6.4 1986 Brazilian OFDI accumulated flows by destination 120
Table 6.5 Brazilian OFDI stock, 2001 and 2008 122
Table 6.6 Major acquisitions, 1993–2000, by value 123
Table 6.7 Largest greenfield FDI projects, 2002–04 124
Development effects of South–South investments 126
Conclusions 127
Appendix 129
Notes 130
References 130
7 Brazil: South–South economic relations and global governance 132
Brazil and South–South trade relations: an overview 132
Challenges of forging mechanisms of economic governance 143
Concluding remarks 146
Notes 147
Reference 147
Annexe: figures and graphs 147
8 South–South trade and the environment 161
Trade and the environment: an overview 162
Table 8.1 Comparative outcomes for the emerging powers and the OECD 164
Trading up: from the United States to China 166
Trading down: Brazil in South America 169
Figure 8.1 Volume of trade between Brazil and its CAN neighbours, 1992–2009 170
Figure 8.2 Volume of trade between Brazil and its Mercosur neighbours, 1992–2008 171
Trading across: Brazil with India and South Africa (IBSA) 173
Figure 8.3 Brazil’s total trade with India, South Africa and Argentina, 1992–2008 175
Conclusions 176
Notes 177
References 177
9 Latin America and China: trading short-term growth for (China’s) long-run prosperity 180
Table 9.1 Growth and reform in China and LAC, 1980–2010 180
Trade and investment 181
Table 9.2 Five countries, eight sectors, dominate LAC trade to China (2009) 182
Table 9.3 Share of China exports in selected countries and sectors, 2008 183
Table 9.4 Chinese FDI in Latin America: major projects and motivations 184
Formal economic cooperation 187
Table 9.5 Selected major Chinese services contracts in LAC 188
Implications for the longer-run future 190
Figure 9.1 Manufacturing exports, billions of current dollars 192
Table 9.6 China: taking away the (manufacturing) ladder? Percentage of world manufacturing exports 194
Table 9.7 Exports to the world, percentage under ‘threat’ from China 196
Summary and conclusions 196
Notes 197
References 198
10 Growing economic relations between the GCC and Chindia 200
The origins of mutual attraction 201
Trade relations 202
Figure 10.1 GCC trade with India (billion $US) 203
Figure 10.2 GCC trade with China ($US billions) 203
Figure 10.3 India’s trade with GCC countries ($US billions) 204
Figure 10.4 China’s trade with GCC countries ($US billions) 204
Figure 10.5 Shares of India and China in Saudi Arabian imports (%) 205
Figure 10.6 Shares of India and China in UAE imports (%) 205
Figure 10.7 Shares of India and China in Saudi Arabian exports (%) 206
Figure 10.8 Shares of India and China in UAE exports (%) 206
Investment relations 207
Table 10.1 Bilateral investment treaties 207
Table 10.2 Estimates of total foreign assets in December 2006 ($US billions) 208
Asian migrant workers in the GCC 215
What lies ahead for GCC –Chindia economic ties? 216
Notes 219
References 220
Contributors 222
Index 225