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Central Banking at a Crossroads

Central Banking at a Crossroads

Charles Goodhart | Daniela Gabor | Jakob Vestergaard | Ismail Ertürk

(2014)

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Abstract

This book reflects on the innovations that central banks have introduced since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers to improve their modes of intervention, regulation and resolution of financial markets and financial institutions. Authors from both academia and policy circles explore these innovations through four approaches: ‘Bank Capital Regulation’ examines the Basel III agreement; ‘Bank Resolution’ focuses on effective regimes for regulating and resolving ailing banks; ‘Central Banking with Collateral-Based Finance’ develops thought on the challenges that market-based finance pose for the conduct of central banking; and ‘Where Next for Central Banking’ examines the trajectory of central banking and its new, central role in sustaining capitalism. 


“This is the book finance experts have been waiting for. For those who seek concrete case studies and empirics on the transformative role of central banks since the financial crisis, this important volume amply fills this niche. This rigorous and novel investigation is a ‘must-read’ for all who either approve or disapprove of the unconventional instruments and practices used by central banks that have extended the mandate and blurred the traditional line between monetary and fiscal policy.” —Brigitte Young, University of Münster, Germany


“Focusing on solvency questions, this book provides a representative sample of the current state of debate, a first and useful step in the urgent project of reconceptualizing the role of central banking for the modern world.” —Perry Mehrling, Barnard College, Columbia University


“Big crises challenge our thinking and even entire paradigms of economics. Many of the authors in this volume are well known for their ideas for further regulatory reforms after the crisis. The book’s thought-provoking and sometimes controversial views are very welcome to the discussion even if one would not necessarily agree with all of them.” —Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland


Since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, central banking has changed dramatically. Over the past five years central banks have intervened in both public and private debt markets, taking on functions of dealers of last resort, while simultaneously designing regulatory and resolution frameworks with the explicit aim of changing bank business models, all in order to contain and better address systemic risk. This book explores these developments through collected essays from authors from both academia and policy circles, and sets them in the context of the European crisis.

‘Central Banking at a Crossroads’ reflects on the innovations central banks have made to improve their modes of intervention, regulation and resolution of financial markets and financial institutions in four related sections: ‘Bank Capital Regulation’ examines the Basel III agreement, identifying its key novelties and shortcomings vis-à-vis its predecessor, Basel II; ‘Bank Resolution’ focuses on effective regimes for regulating and resolving ailing banks; ‘Central Banking with Collateral-Based Finance’ develops thought on the challenges that market-based finance pose for the conduct of central banking in periods of economic stability and, through a critical theoretical angle, the important role that governments play for financial markets as manufacturers of high-quality collateral or safe assets; and, finally, ‘Where Next for Central Banking’ examines the trajectory of central banking, its issues, and its new, central role in sustaining capitalism.


Charles Goodhart is director of the Financial Regulation Research Programme at the London School of Economics.

Daniela Gabor is an associate professor at the University of the West of England in Bristol.

Jakob Vestergaard is a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies in Denmark.

Ismail Ertürk is a senior lecturer at Manchester Business School at the University of Manchester, UK.


“Big crises challenge our thinking and even entire paradigms of economics. Many of the authors in this volume are well known for their ideas for further regulatory reforms after the crisis. The book’s thought-provoking and sometimes controversial views are very welcome to the discussion even if one would not necessarily agree with all of them.” —Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland


“Focusing on solvency questions, this book provides a representative sample of the current state of debate, a first and useful step in the urgent project of reconceptualizing the role of central banking for the modern world.” —Perry Mehrling, Barnard College, Columbia University


“This is the book finance experts have been waiting for. For those who seek concrete case studies and empirics on the transformative role of central banks since the financial crisis, this important volume amply fills this niche. This rigorous and novel investigation is a ‘must-read’ for all who either approve or disapprove of the unconventional instruments and practices used by central banks that have extended the mandate and blurred the traditional line between monetary and fiscal policy.” —Brigitte Young, University of Münster, Germany

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Central Banking at a Crossroads i
Title iii
Copyright iv
CONTENTS v
PREFACE vii
Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1
Background and Key Themes 1
Overview of Chapters 4
References 11
Part 1 BANK CAPITAL REGULATION 13
Chapter 2 CONSTRAINING DISCRETION IN BANK REGULATION 15
Introduction 15
The Emergence of Self-Regulation 15
Unfulfilled Ambitions 17
Unintended Consequences 24
Where Next? 27
Conclusion 29
Notes 30
References 30
Chapter 3 FALLACIES AND IRRELEVANT FACTS IN THE DISCUSSION ON CAPITAL REGULATION 33
Introduction 33
Capital Structure Fallacies 34
Arguments Based on a Confusion of Private and Social Costs 39
Equity Requirements and Bank Lending 42
Policy Recommendations 44
Concluding Remarks 46
Notes 47
References 48
Chapter 4 COMPLEXITY, INTERCONNECTEDNESS: BUSINESS MODELS AND THE BASEL SYSTEM 51
Abstract 51
I. Introduction 51
II. The Basel System Historically 52
III. The Basel III Reforms 54
IV. New Empirical Evidence on Leverage and Interconnectedness Risk 65
Modeling the DTD 66
Concluding Remarks 70
Notes 71
References 72
Chapter 5 AT THE BRINK OF INSOLVENCY: SHALLOW RECAPITALIZATION EXERCISE FAILS TO BOLSTER EUROPE’S AILING BANKS 75
I. Introduction 75
II. Stress Tests and Recapitalization Exercises 76
III. The Continued Undercapitalization of European Banking 79
IV. European Recapitalization in Perspective 84
V. The CRD4: Institutionalizing the Reluctance to Recapitalize? 86
Discussion 88
VI. Concluding Remarks 89
Notes 91
References 91
Part 2 BANK RESOLUTION 95
Chapter 6 BANK RESOLUTION IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: WHAT LESSONS FOR EUROPE? 97
Introduction 97
What Should Happen? 99
What May Go Wrong and What to Do About It 99
Conclusions 105
Notes 106
References 107
Chapter 7 RESOLVING PROBLEM BANKS: A REVIEW OF THE GLOBAL EVIDENCE 109
Introduction 109
The Case for Special Resolution Regimes 109
Changes in Resolution Regimes during the Global Financial Crisis 111
Principles and Design of the Framework 112
Beyond the Special Resolution Regime 117
Cross-Border Issues 119
Conclusion 120
Notes 120
References 121
Chapter 8 BANK RESOLUTION IN NEW ZEALAND AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE 123
Splitting the Bank 125
Can One Ignore the Australians? 126
Bailing In 128
Swift Action 132
An Error over Deposit Insurance 133
Concluding Remarks 135
Notes 136
References 138
Part 3 CENTRAL BANKING WITH \nCOLLATERAL-BASED FINANCE 141
Chapter 9 COLLATERAL AND MONETARY POLICY 143
Introduction 143
Price of Money and Price of Collateral 144
The Changing Collateral Space 145
Collateral and Monetary Policy, via the IS/LM Framework 150
The Collateral Implications of Exit Strategies 153
Conclusion 155
Notes 155
References 156
Chapter 10 THE ECB AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF COLLATERAL 157
Introduction 157
Theoretical Perspectives: Central Banks’ Intervention in Financial Markets 158
Understanding the ECB’s Dilemmas 168
Conclusion 173
Notes 174
References 174
Chapter 11 THE BACKSTORY OF THE RISK-FREE ASSET: HOW GOVERNMENT DEBT BECAME “SAFE” 177
I. Introduction 177
II. The Mystery/History of Sovereign Safety 178
III. Fiction and Public Credit 181
IV. Conclusion 184
Notes 184
References 185
Part 4 WHERE NEXT FOR CENTRAL BANKING? 189
Chapter 12 CENTRAL BANKING POST-CRISIS: WHAT COMPASS FOR UNCHARTED WATERS? 191
Introduction 191
I. The Evolving Intellectual Backdrop 192
II. A Way Forward? Working Hypotheses 195
III. A Way Forward? Implications for Central Banking 199
Postscript 203
I. Some Stylized Facts 203
II. How Far Has the Compass Provided Guidance? 205
III. Assessment of Outcomes and Risks 206
Conclusion 209
Notes 209
References 211
Chapter 13 RECONCEPTUALIZING CENTRAL BANK UNCONVENTIONAL POLICIES: LONG POSITIONS ON NO-GROWTH CAPITALISM 217
Convergence to Central Bank Unconventional Policies in Core Capitalist Countries after the 2007 Crisis 217
The Rise of Unconventional Central Bank Policies 218
Central Banks’ Long Position on a Low-Growth Capitalism 221
Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Long Position on Low-Growth Capitalism 223
Conclusion 226
References 228
Chapter 14 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CENTRAL BANKS AND GOVERNMENTS: WHAT ARE CENTRAL BANKS FOR? 229
Introduction 229
Banking History and the Role of Collateral 230
Central Banks and Financial Stability 232
Central Bank Independence 236
Conclusion 241
Notes 241
References 242
Chapter 15 IS NEW GOVERNANCE THE IDEAL ARCHITECTURE FOR GLOBAL FINANCIAL REGULATION? 245
Introduction: Regulatory Pluralism and the Interrelationship of Legal Regimes 245
Part II: The FSB Approach to Global Financial Architecture 247
Part III: The New Governance Approach 253
Part IV: New Governance in Practice: A Critical Appraisal 255
Part V: Conclusion 259
Note 262
References 262
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS 265
INDEX 271