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Greece's 'Odious' Debt

Greece's 'Odious' Debt

Jason Manolopoulos

(2011)

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Book Details

Abstract

For more information please visit the book website:

http://greecesodiousdebt.anthempressblog.com/

Jason Manolopoulos combines his experience of the global financial system, European politics and Greek society to demonstrate how one of the EU’s smaller countries played a catalytic role in a crisis that threatens the future of the euro, and possibly even of the European Union itself.

He explores the historical legacy and psychological biases that have shaped an ongoing drama. While leaders of the European Union criticise ‘the markets’ for destabilizing the single currency, Manolopoulos interrogates the shared beliefs of the EU and the investment banking community – and how they colluded for a decade in the illusion that lending huge sums to peripheral eurozone countries was safe.

Policy and investment errors bear marked similarities with earlier financial crises – in particular the Exchange Rate Mechanism system and the Argentine debt crisis. This inability to learn history’s recent lessons begs fundamental questions of policy making, which this book discusses.

Greek society also comes under scrutiny, as shocking details of a kleptocratic political class and a wasteful public sector are revealed. Manolopoulos traces these developments back to dictatorship and civil war, but argues that there is no excuse for their continuation in a modern democracy.


‘Jason Manolopoulos’s new tome is an enjoyable romp through the story of how Greece got caught out in the international economic crisis.’ —Business Diary, ‘The Independent’


‘…[One] of the first to immerse into the Greek debt crisis in an intelligible manner. [...] [Manolopoulos’s] book is to be recommended to anyone who is endeavouring to picture the Greek misery to its whole extent.’ —Norbert Härin, ‘Handelsblatt’


'A fascinating account of the crisis-ridden saga of Greece and a wider European economy prompted by the superficial nature of Europe’s political process, its institutions, and the impunity of its leaders. Psychologically insightful and gritty in his practical recommendations, Manolopoulos possesses a knack for chiselled and punchy prose – all of which make the read a pleasurable must.' —Guerman Aliev, CEO of Altpoint Capital Partners


Jason Manolopoulos is the co-founder of the emerging markets hedge fund Dromeus Capital, an alternative asset management firm focusing on macro and special situations investments in emerging markets.


'The graphic portrait of a deeply troubled country and the shocking story of the failure of past and present economic experts to grasp the nature of the problems.' —Thomas Mayer, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank


‘The author, who is also a founder of an emerging-market hedge fund, sets out to analyze the Greek fiscal crisis and its larger reverberations. […] This is a brave, complicated and timely book.’ —Nancy F. Koehn, ‘The New York Times’


Jason Manolopoulos lends a unique perspective, based on experience of the global financial system, emerging markets and crises, European politics and Greek society, to demonstrate how one of the EU’s smaller countries played a catalytic role in a crisis that threatens the future of the euro, and possibly even of the European Union itself. He digs beneath the headline economic data to explore the historical legacy and psychological biases that have shaped an ongoing political drama, in a book that has profound implications for our understanding of economics, as well as the policy choices for Europe’s elite.

For more information please visit the book website: http://greecesodiousdebt.anthempressblog.com/


‘As with so much economic history, Manolopoulos reveals just how many factors, and negligent hubristic individuals, helped cause the monumental disaster. He is even-handed in apportioning blame – everyone carries some.’ —David Walker, ‘Investment Week’


‘[An] excellent study both of the eurozone and of the Greek case by Jason Manolopoulos, Greece’s ‘Odious’ Debt (Anthem Press). He shows conclusively that the eurozone is far from an optimum currency area.’ —Samuel Brittan, ‘Financial Times’


'Through a critical but accessible discussion of key conventions in economics and finance and ample presentation of anecdotal material, this book offers a unique introspective look into Greek socio-political culture and how this, combined with the fallacies and excesses of the international financial system and the EMU architecture, led to what the author calls ‘Greece’s Odious Debt’.' —Dr Vassilis Monastiriotis, Hellenic Observatory, European Institute, London School of Economics


‘Most of us are familiar with bits of the story and aware of the social and economic strains in Greece itself. But until now there has been no straightforward analysis of the sequence of events that led to the collapse, still less a sketch of how the story might end. Manolopoulos is a Greek hedge fund manager, and so doubly qualified to provide this. […] The author is tough on Greece but he is also tough on Europe. The euro was mis-sold and the temporary bail-out has made matters worse.’ —Hamish McRae, ‘The Independent’


'Incisive and engaging, this book provides a unique perspective on the Greek crisis by combining a thoughtful analysis of Greek society and economy with one of politics at the EU level and of global financial markets.' —Dr Dimitri Vayanos, Professor of Finance and Director of the Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality, London School of Economics


‘Blunt, rigorous and shrewd, Manolopoulos resembles a wise uncle explaining how a ne’er-do-well cousin gambled away the family’s future: He spares his compatriots no embarrassment, yet recalls in memorable detail how fickle German friends and French moneylenders egged them on.’ —James Pressley, ‘Bloomberg’


‘There have been plenty of books about the Wall Street crisis of 2008 but fewer, to date, about the sovereign crisis that followed it. So it is good to be able to recommend Jason Manolopoulos’s work, ‘Greece’s “Odious” Debt: The Looting of the Hellenic Republic by the Euro, the Political Elite and the Investment Community’. […] Mr Manolopoulos is actually a hedge fund manager who takes a very clear-headed view of the crisis. […] The combination of a currency link and weak economic policies doomed Greece to its eventual crisis. But the author entertaining[ly] recounts the long series of denials by EU officials, Greek politicians and investment banks.’ —Philip Coggan, ‘The Economist’


'Manolopoulos brings the Greek debt crisis into historical perspective, providing an insightful analysis of what went wrong. This book is essential reading for everybody who wants to understand the challenges the Eurozone is facing.' —Michael Ganske, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Commerzbank

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
Front Matter i
Half Title i
Title Page iii
Copyright Page iv
Dedication v
CONTENTS vii
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ix
PREFACE xi
Main Matter 1
Chapter 1: FROM BUENOS AIRES TO ATHENS 1
Exchange Rate Stabilisation 2
Argentina: Background to the Dollar Peg 3
Clientelism: The Legacy of Peronismand its Hellenic Counterpart 5
Impunity of the Ruling Class 10
Oligarchical Business Structures 11
The ‘Cluster’: Feature of an Advanced Economy 11
Chapter 2: GETTING LUCKY 13
An Undiversified Economy Gets Lucky 13
Borrow, Borrow, Borrow 17
Spend, Spend, Spend 21
Lessons Learned and Forgotten 27
Chapter 3: THE EURO: HARD SELL,OR MIS-SELL? 33
The EU: Origins and Aims 33
The Single Currency and the European Project 37
An Optimal Currency Area 38
ERM, R.I.P. 42
(Mis)-Selling the Euro to a Sceptical Public 43
Convergence First or After: Counting Your Chickens Before they are Hatched 46
Mis-Selling by Metaphor: The Great Train Journey 47
Catching Up, Fingers Crossed 50
Convergence: Let’s Find Some Criteria 52
Goodhart’s Law: Or, the Target Becomes the Problem 53
Surprise, Surprise: Convergence Achieved in a Mere 18 Months 54
Fiddled Figures. Big Secret? 55
Premature Celebrations 58
Chapter 4: WESTERN BRANDING, EASTERN LEGACY: A COUNTRY ON A FAULT LINE 59
The Byron Illusion 60
The Burden 61
History, Grievance and Entitlement 62
The Ottoman Legacy 64
External Interference: A Bavarian King 65
Civil War 1946–1949 66
The Regime of the Colonels 69
The Geographic Legacy and a Modern Arms Race 71
Geography and Geopolitics 75
Joining the EU: The Largesse Begins 77
Chapter 5: THE LOOTING OF GREECE: SCANDALS, CORRUPTION AND A MONSTROUS PUBLIC SECTOR 81
Cronyism 82
Statism 84
Nepotism 89
Clientelism 89
Corruption 90
Regulated Professions or Closed Shops 92
Waste and Red Tape 94
The Scandals 95
Tax: A Vicious Circle 103
Doctors 105
The Vicious Circle 106
The Oligarchs and Conglomerates 106
The Legacy 107
The Looting of Greece: A Lawless State 108
Chapter 6: GETTING UNLUCKY – IT ALL BEGINS TO UNRAVEL 109
What Could Possibly Go Wrong? 109
Misleading Data: The Turkey Graph 110
Great Moderation 112
Decades in the Making 113
An Inevitable Default? 116
Buenos Aires and the IMF (Continued) 117
Athens and the IMF: Complacency Returns 119
When Taxi Drivers Know the Yields 120
Where Bail-Out is a Euphemism 123
The ‘Real’ Economy Erupts 125
Chapter 7: THE EURO IN PRACTICE 131
Optimal Currency Area: How did we Measure Up? 132
Some Benefits: Increases in Trade and Investment 133
The Fiscal Rules: Compliance Went Down 135
An Appearance of Convergence 140
Trade: The Train Decouples 141
Politics Cannot Repeal Arithmetic 145
Cognitive Dissonance 148
Borrowing and PR; Hubris and Schadenfreude 150
The Swaps, the Fiddled Figures. The Saga Continues 154
The Implicit Guarantee: The Euro Subprime Scandal 155
Selective and Short-Term Memory 157
Beware Buyer’s Remorse 158
‘In Hindsight’ – But they were Warned 159
Chapter 8: LIQUIDITY BOOM 163
How Come Greece was Allowed to Borrow $500 Billion? 163
A Liquidity Boom: The Early 2000s 164
Benchmarking, Convergence and Carry 165
ADHD in the Markets 167
Collusive Denial 169
Relativity, and Ketchup Pricing 171
Effi cient Market Hypothesis, Hyperactivity, and Obsession with the Short Term 173
Ridiculing the Whistleblowers 175
Wrong Signals 176
Stability: Elusive, Illusive 176
The Washington Consensus 178
Chapter 9: THE ENTERTAINERS 185
Credit Rating Agencies: Backward or Forward Looking? 186
Investment Banks 192
HSBC 192
Société Générale 195
Nomura 197
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 198
Could Greece trigger a new wave of market turbulence? 200
Contagion risk makes default even less likely 200
Economic backdrop: Greece matters 200
But what if help was needed? 201
BNP Paribas 202
Disinterested Banks Saw it Differently 204
Assimilation: The Unpredictable Becomes the Inevitable 206
The IMF 209
The Entertainers Entertain 210
Chapter 10: A TEMPORARY BAIL-OUT? A CRISIS MADE WORSE BY SATISFICING 211
A Rescue is Needed! Get the Euphemisms Ready! 211
The Cost of Debt Rises; Warnings Mount 213
Phase I – Denial and PR (October 2009 – 25 March 2010) 215
Phase II: Denial, PR and the Promise of More Borrowing (25 March 2010 – 9 May 2010) 223
Phase III: Actual and Potential Borrowing of €750 Billion 233
Risk Spreads Back to the Banks 237
IMF Gets Tough 238
Public Opinion has its Revenge 239
Chapter 11: THE MAN IN THE ARENA 243
Greece 244
Washington Consensus 252
The Banks 254
European Welfare States? 259
The Euro 261
End Matter 265
NOTES 265
Chapter 1: From Buenos Aires to Athens 265
Chapter 2: Getting Lucky 266
Chapter 3: The Euro: Hard Sell, or Mis-Sell? 267
Chapter 4: Western Branding, Eastern Legacy: A Country on a Fault Line 267
Chapter 5: The Looting of Greece: Scandals, Corruption and a Monstrous Public Sector 269
Chapter 6: Getting Unlucky – It All Begins to Unravel 272
Chapter 7: The Euro in Practice 273
Chapter 8: Liquidity Boom 274
Chapter 9: The Entertainers 276
Chapter 10: A Temporary Bail-Out? A Crisis MadeWorse by Satisficing 276
Chapter 11: The Man in the Arena 277
INDEX 279
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 288