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South Asia 2060

South Asia 2060

Adil Najam | Moeed Yusuf

(2013)

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Book Details

Abstract

“South Asia 2060” is a dialogue among 47 experts from a diverse range of expertise and backgrounds, ranging from policymakers to academia to civil society activists and visionaries, on the likely longer-range trajectories of South Asia’s future. The collection explores current regional trends, possible future trajectories, and the key factors that will determine whether these trajectories are positive or negative for the region, as a region. Departing from a purely security-based analysis, the volume considers factors such as development and human well-being to reveal not what will happen but what could happen, as well as the impact present conditions could have on the rest of the world.


Adil Najam is vice chancellor of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), Pakistan, professor of international relations at Boston University, USA, and the former director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University. 

Moeed Yusuf is the South Asia adviser at the Center for Conflict Management, United States Institute of Peace.


“The Pardee Center and its authors should be congratulated for this ambitious and comprehensive effort to project trends and imagine alternative realities 50 years hence for areas that will remain key challenges in South Asia, ranging from democracy and regional identity to education to water management. This work will remain a valuable reference for scholars and practitioners alike as they strive to understand the effects of these trends and new realities in this diverse and perplexing region, soon to be the world’s largest, on the lives of people there, and on overall global stability. In addition, the well-researched ‘worst case scenarios’ can help focus the minds of governments and civil society to ensure that investments are made now that will ensure a positive shift in South Asia’s trajectory.”  —Robin Raphel, former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, USA


This book is the product of an ongoing dialogue among 47 experts from a diverse range of expertise and backgrounds, including thought leaders from the ranks of policymakers, academics and civil society. These thought leaders and visionaries discuss the likely longer-range trajectories of South Asia’s future as a region, focusing particularly on current regional trends, possible futures and the key factors that will determine whether these trajectories are positive or negative for the region.

Will we even be talking about a “South Asian region” 50 years from now? And will the region still be seen as a threat to global stability? This future-oriented exploration tackles these questions whilst departing from a purely security-based analysis to include factors such as development and human well-being, seeking to shed light on a whole spectrum of current issues that will affect the region into the future.

The essays in this book organically inform the collection’s coherent and nuanced outlook on the region, which offers both an introspective and globally aware perspective of the outcomes of the region’s development. The volume fills the gap in studies on South Asia by exploring its regional identity, as well as the potential of present conditions to impact the future of South Asia and the rest of the world.


“Leading experts on South Asia have gazed through the telescope and offered their predictions for the political and socioeconomic landscape of 2060. What emerges is a surprisingly optimistic composite picture of a vibrant, dynamic and cohesive region. The prospects of South Asia evolving into Southasia are tantalizing. This is political astronomy at its best.”  —Lalit Mansingh, former Foreign Secretary of India

 


 

“South Asia still remains the serpent that eats its tail, but this book spurs fresh intellectual agency on a region that is in danger of missing its ‘moment.’ It offers a compelling set of arguments that pivot on the case for a stronger regional identity and imaginative thinking for a future constructed on hope. Required reading for policymakers looking for informed discourse as well as much-needed unconventional wisdoms on South Asia.”  —Sherry Rehman, former Federal Minister of Pakistan


“[A]n all-star cast of serious scholars covering a number of topics. […] The range of topics undertaken is nearly encyclopedic: South Asia as a region, state relations, economic development, and human well-being. However, there is a commonality of perspective running through nearly all of the essays, regardless of topic.” —William G. Vanderbok, “Exemplar: The Journal of South Asian Studies”

Table of Contents

Section Title Page Action Price
South Asia 2060_9780857280749 i
Title iii
Copyright iv
CONTENTS v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xi
Introduction IMAGINING SOUTH ASIAN FUTURES 1
3
4
5
6
7
Section I SOUTH ASIA AS A REGION 9
Chapter 1 PRISONERS OR MASTERS OF DESTINY? 11
The Rise of Regionalism 11
South Asia: A Region Sans the Sense of Regionalism 13
The World of 2060 15
Conclusion 21
Chapter 2 SOUTH ASIAN FUTURES: THREE SCENARIOS 22
Scenario 22
Scenario 24
Scenario 26
Conclusions: The Future Outlook Remains Cloudy 28
Chapter 3 FEDERALISM ON THE ROAD:REGION AND REGIONALISM 29
Indus–Ganga Plain 30
India Know Thyself 31
Federal Traction 32
South Asia beyond SAARC 33
The Quality of Empathy 34
Chapter 4 DIVERSITY IN SOUTH ASIA 38
The Growing Gap between the Privileged and the Poor 40
Religious Influences 42
Conclusions 43
Chapter 5 FUTURE’S PAST 46
Introduction 46
Conceptions of the Past, Realities of the Present 46
An Alternative History 48
Making a Community through Bollywood? 50
Present as Future? 52
Section II STATE RELATIONS 53
Chapter 6 THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY 55
Baseline 55
Looking Back: First-Order Trends 56
Looking Forward: Certainties and Uncertainties 57
Future Scenarios 59
Chapter 7 CONFLICT AND RECONCILIATION: THREE SCENARIOS 61
The Drivers: The Five Ds 62
Demography 62
Democracy and devolution 63
Dialogue and reconciliation 64
Development and integration 64
Diversity 65
The Scenarios 65
South Asia as a secure community: The jannat scenario 65
Security anarchy: The barzakh scenario 66
Security nightmare: The jahannnum scenario 66
Three Conclusions 67
Chapter 8 RELIGION AND STATE FORMATION 68
Religions in South Asia: Precolonial Period 68
Religions in South Asia: Colonial Period 69
Religion and Conflict in South Asia: Postcolonial Period 70
Looking Ahead: Some Thoughts for the Future 72
Chapter 9 WILL SOUTH ASIA STILL BE TERRORISM’S CENTER OF GRAVITY? 75
Trends in South Asian Terrorism – What Do They Portend? 76
Terrorism: The End of Hope or the Catalyst for a New Beginning? 80
Chapter 10 SPECULATIONS ON NUCLEAR SOUTH ASIA 82
Nuclear Dynamics 82
Regional and Global Dynamics 84
Nuclear Risks and Consequences 85
Towards Nuclear Disarmament: Implications for South Asia 86
Nuclear Energy 87
Reading a Cracked Crystal Ball 88
Chapter 11 NUCLEAR RISK: OVERSTATED OR\rUNDERRATED ? 90
Exaggerated Fears? 91
Underrated Risks? 92
Possible Consequences 94
Editors’ Note: 95
Chapter 12 THE SHADOW OF THE INDIA–PAKISTAN STALEMATE 96
Indo–Pakistani Divide 96
Conditions for Durable Peace 98
Three Scenarios for the Future 100
Chapter 13 REGIONAL INTEGRATION 102
Capitalizing on the Opportunities 102
Conflict in the Region 105
Conclusion 107
Chapter 14 THE FUTURE OF INTEGRATION 108
Assessing the Future of SAARC 109
Overcoming Hurdles to Regional Cooperation 110
The Wider Picture: Geostrategic Compulsions 113
Chapter 15 THE GIANT NEIGHBOR: WHY IS CHINA IMPORTANT ? 114
Introduction 114
What Will the World, China and South Asia Look Like in 2060? 114
How Will China and South Asia Impact Each Other? 117
Conclusion 120
Section III DEVELOPMENT 121
Chapter 16 SOUTH ASIAN ECONOMY IN 2060 123
Intraregional Trade: Failure and Future Prospects 123
Demography: Positive and Negative 124
Climate Change: Tough Choices 125
Reaping the Benefits of Technology: The Sooner the Better 126
Overcoming Bilateral Problems: Prospects for Regional Integration 128
Three Scenarios for the Future 129
Chapter 17 ECONOMIC FUTURES:\rCHALLENGES AHEAD 132
The “Why” of South Asia’s Present 134
Challenges in the Twenty-first Century 137
Chapter 18 SOUTH ASIA IN THE\rASIAN ECONOMY: STRUGGLING\rTO OVERCOME HISTORY 141
Population and Migration 141
Regional Production Networks 143
Structural Imbalance 145
Growth vs. Equity 146
Chapter 19 GLOBALIZATION AND SOUTH ASIA 147
History and the Legacy of Ideologies 148
Economic and Cultural Globalization in South Asia 149
Challenges Ahead 151
Chapter 20 TRADE RELATIONS: SOME PREDICTIONS AND LESSONS 153
Trends in South Asian Trade 154
Trade Agreements in Place 156
Major Challenges and the Way Forward 157
Conclusion 159
Chapter 21 URBAN POLICY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND WELL-BEING 160
Introduction: Population, Human Development and Environment 160
The Challenge of Rapid Urbanization 161
Urban Policy and Planning – A Critical Need 163
Urban Policy Priorities and Strategies in South Asia 165
Chapter 22 URBAN FUTURES, URBAN CHALLENGES 169
The Study of Urbanization 169
Urbanization in South Asia: Levels, Trends and Patterns 169
Economic Structural Change: Theory and Evidence 171
Issues of Urbanization, Development and Environment 173
Future Prospects of Urbanization in South Asia 174
Conclusion 176
Chapter 23 WATER SECURITY: RISKS AND RESPONSES 177
Water and History in South Asia 177
Early Investments in a Platform of Water Infrastructure 177
Challenges and Responses 178
How Context Matters (A Lot) 181
The Challenges of the Future 181
Chapter 24 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY 183
Towards 2060: Six Challenges 185
Regional Cooperation: Solution, If Not a Panacea 190
Chapter 25 MEETING ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND IN SOUTH ASIA 192
Power and Development in the SACs 192
The Regional Picture: Opportunities Missed, Challenges to be Met 194
Projections and Outlook for the Future 199
Chapter 26 E-SOUTH ASIA: A SOCIAL SCIENCE FICTION 201
Geopolitical Context 202
Foundations of the New Economy 203
The New Economy 205
Status Quo Ante Restored 207
Section IV HUMAN WELL-BEING 209
Chapter 27 POPULATION DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND REGIONAL COHERENCE 211
The Current Demographic Scene 211
Historical and Current Economic Situation 212
Changing Age Structure 213
Linking Demographic Change and Economic Growth: The Demographic Dividend 215
Is there a Connection? 216
Caveat Lector: Demography Is Not Destiny 217
Two Potential Impediments to Realizing the Demographic Dividend 218
Conclusion 219
Chapter 28 TOWARDS COOPERATION FOR POVERTY REDUCTION? 221
A Closer Look at Where We Are 221
Poverty Incidence and GDP 224
Growth Projections and Poverty Reduction Policy 226
Conclusion 227
Chapter 29 HEALTH CHALLENGES 229
Introduction 229
Health and Development 229
Recent Progress – India and Sri Lanka 231
Measures of Health Status and Quality of Health Systems 232
Where is India Today? 233
Where is Sri Lanka Today? 234
Challenges for the Future 235
India, Sri Lanka and South Asia, 2060 236
Chapter 30 REGIONAL DISEASE DYNAMICS 238
Introduction 238
Current Disease Outlook 238
Projected Regional Disease Outlook for 2060 241
Averting Gloomy Future: The Way Forward 243
Chapter 31 EDUCATION: TIME BOMB OR SILVER BULLET? 246
Literacy 247
But is it too little too late? 247
Secondary and Tertiary Education 247
The Quality Pyramid 248
The Shortage of Skilled Labor and Well-Trained Professionals 248
India Rockets Forward 249
Physical vs. Intellectual Infrastructure 251
A Regional Win–Win Strategy 251
Conclusion 252
Chapter 32 SCHOLARSHIP IN AND ON SOUTH ASIA 254
A Projection for the Region 254
Implications for Scholarship in and on South Asia 256
Empiricist vs. Normative Scholarship: Implications for Security-Oriented Scholarship 257
Emergence of Multiple, Alternative Paradigms 259
Chapter 33 RIGHTS AND JUSTICE:\rA PROSPECTIVE VIEW 261
Lack of a Regional Mechanism or Common Principles 263
Rising Extremism 264
Appropriative Neoliberalism 266
The Worrying State of Public Institutions 267
Conclusion 269
Chapter 34 PATRIARCHY, POWER AND PARADOX :DREAMING GENDER EQUALITY AND\rDEVELOPMENT 270
Current Trends and Trajectories 271
Dreaming Women’s Empowerment in South Asia 273
Making Dreams of Gender Equality Come True in 2060? 275
Chapter 35 WOMEN IN SOUTH ASIA 277
By the Numbers: Women in South Asia 277
Women and the Economy 279
Being Able to Avail of New Economic Opportunities: Getting Educated 280
Women and Legal Reforms 281
Women and Political Participation 282
What the Future May Hold 283
Chapter 36 MEDIA: NEW TRENDS, OLD PROBLEMS 284
Regional Conflict and South Asian Media 284
A “Southasian” Media? 285
Privatization and Beyond 287
“Satellites over South Asia” 289
New Politics, New Media, New Ethics? 290
A More “Democratic” Media Scene 290
Looking Ahead 292
Chapter 37 SPORTS: PASSION AND INDUSTRY 293
The Legacy of Cricket 293
Why No Rivals to Cricket? 294
Sports and Regional Dynamics: Politics, Business and Society 295
Futures of Sports, Futures of the Region 297
ABOUT THE AUTHORS 300
Editors 300
Contributors 300
BIBLIOGRAPHY 309
INDEX 318