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Abstract
“South Asia 2060” is a dialogue among 47 experts from a diverse range of expertise and backgrounds, ranging from policymakers to academia to civil society activists and visionaries, on the likely longer-range trajectories of South Asia’s future. The collection explores current regional trends, possible future trajectories, and the key factors that will determine whether these trajectories are positive or negative for the region, as a region. Departing from a purely security-based analysis, the volume considers factors such as development and human well-being to reveal not what will happen but what could happen, as well as the impact present conditions could have on the rest of the world.
Adil Najam is vice chancellor of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), Pakistan, professor of international relations at Boston University, USA, and the former director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University.
Moeed Yusuf is the South Asia adviser at the Center for Conflict Management, United States Institute of Peace.
“The Pardee Center and its authors should be congratulated for this ambitious and comprehensive effort to project trends and imagine alternative realities 50 years hence for areas that will remain key challenges in South Asia, ranging from democracy and regional identity to education to water management. This work will remain a valuable reference for scholars and practitioners alike as they strive to understand the effects of these trends and new realities in this diverse and perplexing region, soon to be the world’s largest, on the lives of people there, and on overall global stability. In addition, the well-researched ‘worst case scenarios’ can help focus the minds of governments and civil society to ensure that investments are made now that will ensure a positive shift in South Asia’s trajectory.” —Robin Raphel, former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, USA
This book is the product of an ongoing dialogue among 47 experts from a diverse range of expertise and backgrounds, including thought leaders from the ranks of policymakers, academics and civil society. These thought leaders and visionaries discuss the likely longer-range trajectories of South Asia’s future as a region, focusing particularly on current regional trends, possible futures and the key factors that will determine whether these trajectories are positive or negative for the region.
Will we even be talking about a “South Asian region” 50 years from now? And will the region still be seen as a threat to global stability? This future-oriented exploration tackles these questions whilst departing from a purely security-based analysis to include factors such as development and human well-being, seeking to shed light on a whole spectrum of current issues that will affect the region into the future.
The essays in this book organically inform the collection’s coherent and nuanced outlook on the region, which offers both an introspective and globally aware perspective of the outcomes of the region’s development. The volume fills the gap in studies on South Asia by exploring its regional identity, as well as the potential of present conditions to impact the future of South Asia and the rest of the world.
“Leading experts on South Asia have gazed through the telescope and offered their predictions for the political and socioeconomic landscape of 2060. What emerges is a surprisingly optimistic composite picture of a vibrant, dynamic and cohesive region. The prospects of South Asia evolving into Southasia are tantalizing. This is political astronomy at its best.” —Lalit Mansingh, former Foreign Secretary of India
“South Asia still remains the serpent that eats its tail, but this book spurs fresh intellectual agency on a region that is in danger of missing its ‘moment.’ It offers a compelling set of arguments that pivot on the case for a stronger regional identity and imaginative thinking for a future constructed on hope. Required reading for policymakers looking for informed discourse as well as much-needed unconventional wisdoms on South Asia.” —Sherry Rehman, former Federal Minister of Pakistan
“[A]n all-star cast of serious scholars covering a number of topics. […] The range of topics undertaken is nearly encyclopedic: South Asia as a region, state relations, economic development, and human well-being. However, there is a commonality of perspective running through nearly all of the essays, regardless of topic.” —William G. Vanderbok, “Exemplar: The Journal of South Asian Studies”
Table of Contents
Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
---|---|---|---|
South Asia 2060_9780857280749 | i | ||
Title | iii | ||
Copyright | iv | ||
CONTENTS | v | ||
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS | ix | ||
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS | xi | ||
Introduction IMAGINING SOUTH ASIAN FUTURES | 1 | ||
3 | |||
4 | |||
5 | |||
6 | |||
7 | |||
Section I SOUTH ASIA AS A REGION | 9 | ||
Chapter 1 PRISONERS OR MASTERS OF DESTINY? | 11 | ||
The Rise of Regionalism | 11 | ||
South Asia: A Region Sans the Sense of Regionalism | 13 | ||
The World of 2060 | 15 | ||
Conclusion | 21 | ||
Chapter 2 SOUTH ASIAN FUTURES: THREE SCENARIOS | 22 | ||
Scenario | 22 | ||
Scenario | 24 | ||
Scenario | 26 | ||
Conclusions: The Future Outlook Remains Cloudy | 28 | ||
Chapter 3 FEDERALISM ON THE ROAD:REGION AND REGIONALISM | 29 | ||
Indus–Ganga Plain | 30 | ||
India Know Thyself | 31 | ||
Federal Traction | 32 | ||
South Asia beyond SAARC | 33 | ||
The Quality of Empathy | 34 | ||
Chapter 4 DIVERSITY IN SOUTH ASIA | 38 | ||
The Growing Gap between the Privileged and the Poor | 40 | ||
Religious Influences | 42 | ||
Conclusions | 43 | ||
Chapter 5 FUTURE’S PAST | 46 | ||
Introduction | 46 | ||
Conceptions of the Past, Realities of the Present | 46 | ||
An Alternative History | 48 | ||
Making a Community through Bollywood? | 50 | ||
Present as Future? | 52 | ||
Section II STATE RELATIONS | 53 | ||
Chapter 6 THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY | 55 | ||
Baseline | 55 | ||
Looking Back: First-Order Trends | 56 | ||
Looking Forward: Certainties and Uncertainties | 57 | ||
Future Scenarios | 59 | ||
Chapter 7 CONFLICT AND RECONCILIATION: THREE SCENARIOS | 61 | ||
The Drivers: The Five Ds | 62 | ||
Demography | 62 | ||
Democracy and devolution | 63 | ||
Dialogue and reconciliation | 64 | ||
Development and integration | 64 | ||
Diversity | 65 | ||
The Scenarios | 65 | ||
South Asia as a secure community: The jannat scenario | 65 | ||
Security anarchy: The barzakh scenario | 66 | ||
Security nightmare: The jahannnum scenario | 66 | ||
Three Conclusions | 67 | ||
Chapter 8 RELIGION AND STATE FORMATION | 68 | ||
Religions in South Asia: Precolonial Period | 68 | ||
Religions in South Asia: Colonial Period | 69 | ||
Religion and Conflict in South Asia: Postcolonial Period | 70 | ||
Looking Ahead: Some Thoughts for the Future | 72 | ||
Chapter 9 WILL SOUTH ASIA STILL BE TERRORISM’S CENTER OF GRAVITY? | 75 | ||
Trends in South Asian Terrorism – What Do They Portend? | 76 | ||
Terrorism: The End of Hope or the Catalyst for a New Beginning? | 80 | ||
Chapter 10 SPECULATIONS ON NUCLEAR SOUTH ASIA | 82 | ||
Nuclear Dynamics | 82 | ||
Regional and Global Dynamics | 84 | ||
Nuclear Risks and Consequences | 85 | ||
Towards Nuclear Disarmament: Implications for South Asia | 86 | ||
Nuclear Energy | 87 | ||
Reading a Cracked Crystal Ball | 88 | ||
Chapter 11 NUCLEAR RISK: OVERSTATED OR\rUNDERRATED ? | 90 | ||
Exaggerated Fears? | 91 | ||
Underrated Risks? | 92 | ||
Possible Consequences | 94 | ||
Editors’ Note: | 95 | ||
Chapter 12 THE SHADOW OF THE INDIA–PAKISTAN STALEMATE | 96 | ||
Indo–Pakistani Divide | 96 | ||
Conditions for Durable Peace | 98 | ||
Three Scenarios for the Future | 100 | ||
Chapter 13 REGIONAL INTEGRATION | 102 | ||
Capitalizing on the Opportunities | 102 | ||
Conflict in the Region | 105 | ||
Conclusion | 107 | ||
Chapter 14 THE FUTURE OF INTEGRATION | 108 | ||
Assessing the Future of SAARC | 109 | ||
Overcoming Hurdles to Regional Cooperation | 110 | ||
The Wider Picture: Geostrategic Compulsions | 113 | ||
Chapter 15 THE GIANT NEIGHBOR: WHY IS CHINA IMPORTANT ? | 114 | ||
Introduction | 114 | ||
What Will the World, China and South Asia Look Like in 2060? | 114 | ||
How Will China and South Asia Impact Each Other? | 117 | ||
Conclusion | 120 | ||
Section III DEVELOPMENT | 121 | ||
Chapter 16 SOUTH ASIAN ECONOMY IN 2060 | 123 | ||
Intraregional Trade: Failure and Future Prospects | 123 | ||
Demography: Positive and Negative | 124 | ||
Climate Change: Tough Choices | 125 | ||
Reaping the Benefits of Technology: The Sooner the Better | 126 | ||
Overcoming Bilateral Problems: Prospects for Regional Integration | 128 | ||
Three Scenarios for the Future | 129 | ||
Chapter 17 ECONOMIC FUTURES:\rCHALLENGES AHEAD | 132 | ||
The “Why” of South Asia’s Present | 134 | ||
Challenges in the Twenty-first Century | 137 | ||
Chapter 18 SOUTH ASIA IN THE\rASIAN ECONOMY: STRUGGLING\rTO OVERCOME HISTORY | 141 | ||
Population and Migration | 141 | ||
Regional Production Networks | 143 | ||
Structural Imbalance | 145 | ||
Growth vs. Equity | 146 | ||
Chapter 19 GLOBALIZATION AND SOUTH ASIA | 147 | ||
History and the Legacy of Ideologies | 148 | ||
Economic and Cultural Globalization in South Asia | 149 | ||
Challenges Ahead | 151 | ||
Chapter 20 TRADE RELATIONS: SOME PREDICTIONS AND LESSONS | 153 | ||
Trends in South Asian Trade | 154 | ||
Trade Agreements in Place | 156 | ||
Major Challenges and the Way Forward | 157 | ||
Conclusion | 159 | ||
Chapter 21 URBAN POLICY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND WELL-BEING | 160 | ||
Introduction: Population, Human Development and Environment | 160 | ||
The Challenge of Rapid Urbanization | 161 | ||
Urban Policy and Planning – A Critical Need | 163 | ||
Urban Policy Priorities and Strategies in South Asia | 165 | ||
Chapter 22 URBAN FUTURES, URBAN CHALLENGES | 169 | ||
The Study of Urbanization | 169 | ||
Urbanization in South Asia: Levels, Trends and Patterns | 169 | ||
Economic Structural Change: Theory and Evidence | 171 | ||
Issues of Urbanization, Development and Environment | 173 | ||
Future Prospects of Urbanization in South Asia | 174 | ||
Conclusion | 176 | ||
Chapter 23 WATER SECURITY: RISKS AND RESPONSES | 177 | ||
Water and History in South Asia | 177 | ||
Early Investments in a Platform of Water Infrastructure | 177 | ||
Challenges and Responses | 178 | ||
How Context Matters (A Lot) | 181 | ||
The Challenges of the Future | 181 | ||
Chapter 24 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY | 183 | ||
Towards 2060: Six Challenges | 185 | ||
Regional Cooperation: Solution, If Not a Panacea | 190 | ||
Chapter 25 MEETING ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND IN SOUTH ASIA | 192 | ||
Power and Development in the SACs | 192 | ||
The Regional Picture: Opportunities Missed, Challenges to be Met | 194 | ||
Projections and Outlook for the Future | 199 | ||
Chapter 26 E-SOUTH ASIA: A SOCIAL SCIENCE FICTION | 201 | ||
Geopolitical Context | 202 | ||
Foundations of the New Economy | 203 | ||
The New Economy | 205 | ||
Status Quo Ante Restored | 207 | ||
Section IV HUMAN WELL-BEING | 209 | ||
Chapter 27 POPULATION DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND REGIONAL COHERENCE | 211 | ||
The Current Demographic Scene | 211 | ||
Historical and Current Economic Situation | 212 | ||
Changing Age Structure | 213 | ||
Linking Demographic Change and Economic Growth: The Demographic Dividend | 215 | ||
Is there a Connection? | 216 | ||
Caveat Lector: Demography Is Not Destiny | 217 | ||
Two Potential Impediments to Realizing the Demographic Dividend | 218 | ||
Conclusion | 219 | ||
Chapter 28 TOWARDS COOPERATION FOR POVERTY REDUCTION? | 221 | ||
A Closer Look at Where We Are | 221 | ||
Poverty Incidence and GDP | 224 | ||
Growth Projections and Poverty Reduction Policy | 226 | ||
Conclusion | 227 | ||
Chapter 29 HEALTH CHALLENGES | 229 | ||
Introduction | 229 | ||
Health and Development | 229 | ||
Recent Progress – India and Sri Lanka | 231 | ||
Measures of Health Status and Quality of Health Systems | 232 | ||
Where is India Today? | 233 | ||
Where is Sri Lanka Today? | 234 | ||
Challenges for the Future | 235 | ||
India, Sri Lanka and South Asia, 2060 | 236 | ||
Chapter 30 REGIONAL DISEASE DYNAMICS | 238 | ||
Introduction | 238 | ||
Current Disease Outlook | 238 | ||
Projected Regional Disease Outlook for 2060 | 241 | ||
Averting Gloomy Future: The Way Forward | 243 | ||
Chapter 31 EDUCATION: TIME BOMB OR SILVER BULLET? | 246 | ||
Literacy | 247 | ||
But is it too little too late? | 247 | ||
Secondary and Tertiary Education | 247 | ||
The Quality Pyramid | 248 | ||
The Shortage of Skilled Labor and Well-Trained Professionals | 248 | ||
India Rockets Forward | 249 | ||
Physical vs. Intellectual Infrastructure | 251 | ||
A Regional Win–Win Strategy | 251 | ||
Conclusion | 252 | ||
Chapter 32 SCHOLARSHIP IN AND ON SOUTH ASIA | 254 | ||
A Projection for the Region | 254 | ||
Implications for Scholarship in and on South Asia | 256 | ||
Empiricist vs. Normative Scholarship: Implications for Security-Oriented Scholarship | 257 | ||
Emergence of Multiple, Alternative Paradigms | 259 | ||
Chapter 33 RIGHTS AND JUSTICE:\rA PROSPECTIVE VIEW | 261 | ||
Lack of a Regional Mechanism or Common Principles | 263 | ||
Rising Extremism | 264 | ||
Appropriative Neoliberalism | 266 | ||
The Worrying State of Public Institutions | 267 | ||
Conclusion | 269 | ||
Chapter 34 PATRIARCHY, POWER AND PARADOX :DREAMING GENDER EQUALITY AND\rDEVELOPMENT | 270 | ||
Current Trends and Trajectories | 271 | ||
Dreaming Women’s Empowerment in South Asia | 273 | ||
Making Dreams of Gender Equality Come True in 2060? | 275 | ||
Chapter 35 WOMEN IN SOUTH ASIA | 277 | ||
By the Numbers: Women in South Asia | 277 | ||
Women and the Economy | 279 | ||
Being Able to Avail of New Economic Opportunities: Getting Educated | 280 | ||
Women and Legal Reforms | 281 | ||
Women and Political Participation | 282 | ||
What the Future May Hold | 283 | ||
Chapter 36 MEDIA: NEW TRENDS, OLD PROBLEMS | 284 | ||
Regional Conflict and South Asian Media | 284 | ||
A “Southasian” Media? | 285 | ||
Privatization and Beyond | 287 | ||
“Satellites over South Asia” | 289 | ||
New Politics, New Media, New Ethics? | 290 | ||
A More “Democratic” Media Scene | 290 | ||
Looking Ahead | 292 | ||
Chapter 37 SPORTS: PASSION AND INDUSTRY | 293 | ||
The Legacy of Cricket | 293 | ||
Why No Rivals to Cricket? | 294 | ||
Sports and Regional Dynamics: Politics, Business and Society | 295 | ||
Futures of Sports, Futures of the Region | 297 | ||
ABOUT THE AUTHORS | 300 | ||
Editors | 300 | ||
Contributors | 300 | ||
BIBLIOGRAPHY | 309 | ||
INDEX | 318 |